19 June 2026

Why we don't allow cronyism in a functioning democracy ... too bad we no longer have one

This just goes to show that corruption and crony politics is evil. Not because it's illegal, per se, but because it causes actual harm to actual human beings. 

 https://bsky.app/profile/sonofathomp.bsky.social/post/3monjblnoo225v

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15 June 2026

Epic Blunder and Wilson's 14 Points

Someone on bluesky pointed out that this Iran Capitulation to end Operation Epic Blunder (possibly the stupidest unforced error of a war the US has ever entered into)... violates all three of the first of Wilson's famous "14 points." No love lost on Wilson, but how much worse than even him is Donald Trump! 

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Sarah Paine explains it all for you.

This former Naval War College Historian, Sarah Paine, is really interesting. I think we Americans need to wise up quite a bit about how geopolitics really works. 


 

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09 June 2026

The worm

 Any chance the worm that ate RFK's brain is a screw worm, and it's making the decisions now? 

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07 June 2026

Faulty thinking about SETI

This (see vid. link below) is what I would call pretty conventional thinking about SETI and the likelihood of local aliens. It seems to me it makes a seriously faulty implicit assumption about the likely lifetime of intelligent civilization, about which more below. Also, it doesn't take into account the fact that the greatest likelihood of the origin and development of planetary life to the point where the rise of a technological species is relatively likely (say 5 by from start to emergence, on average) to have been well in the past, due to the fact that the majority of main sequence stars formed within 2-3 billion years of the peak of star formation, which was 9 +/- 1 b.y. ago. This point may not seem obvious, but it is well nigh inescapable. So if any of those civilizations figured out how to do long range planning and colonization, they would have started such programs literally billions of years ago on average. Again, I think the implicit assumption that the lifetime of civilizations is likely on the order of 10,000 years or less is just plain wrong. Species are short-lived, although on Earth the time scale for big animals is more like 1 million years. But advantageous adaptations tend to survive much, much longer. Think of photosynthesis. Body plans that include circulation, respiration, etc. Consciousness itself. Very advantageous. The first organisms that evolved these things are long extinct and looked nothing like living organisms. But these traits survive and develop. I contend that technology-level intelligence is a breakthrough adaptation, like photosynthesis or eukaryotism. Fundamental. And likely to survive, in some form, far longer than the species that first developed it in any given biosphere. Add to this that a technological civilization will, almost by definition, stop being subject to the vagaries of chance and will be able to direct its own evolution, to ensure the survival of its mental development and technology. People shy away from thinking about that, but history doesn't care about our sensitivies. What in the way of adaptation is possible and will benefit some segment of a population, will happen, at least some of the time. It's a law of evolution. 

My conclusion is that, usually, or at least some of the time, once technological intelligence gets firmly established, it becomes a permanent feature of a biosphere, and has the added benefit of freeing that biosphere from the constraints of a single planet of origin as its only habitat. Eventually, technological civilizations that manage to evolve from a natural biosphere begin to expand into a galaxy, and beyond. And on astronomical timescales, this takes far, far less time than the time that has been available since it first became plausible that technological civilizations could arise in any give swath of space, such as our Galaxy. Think this through. The inevitable conclusion is that life may be common; even advanced complex life. But technological intelligence is extremely rare. Because if it had arisen just a few times (to allow for failures) in the past in our Galaxy, it would still be here and would have likely spread throughout the entire Galaxy long since. To my mind, this is the essential insight of the so-called Fermi Paradox. (Which I prefer to think of as the Intelligence Rarity Paradigm). 


  

04 June 2026

Bechstein produces a piano for people with small hands, and the reaction is stunning

This is actually kind of heartbreaking. Bechstein, actually listening to its customers, has produced a model of piano with narrower keys for people (such as most women) with smaller hands. What appears to be a whole family of small handed very skilled pianists tests it out, and one of them is literally transported to tears.  


 

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02 June 2026

250 years of the American republic

It's sad, but I feel none of the enthusiasm we felt in the bicentennial year 1976 this year, the 250th anniversary. Having the worst, most fascistic, stupidest, most malignant president in our history by far in office puts a giant damper on any celebration of the survival of our republic for a quarter of a millennium. In 1976 we had Gerald Ford, about whom whatever else you might say about him, seemed to be a fundamentally decent human being with some understanding of the scope of the job and the limits of its power. Now, it feels premature to consider that we even have survived as the republic declared in 1776. Will we shake off this serious illness and recover with functional and healthy democratic institutions restored? Or not? I don't feel there's any basis for confidence. 

 

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Summer

We are now in meterological summer (June thru Aug), and it feels like Summer here in Porltand. Hope everyone is enjoying it. 

 

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01 June 2026

Lies and damn lies

Hardly surprising, but the US media is capitulating to a giant cover up. The reality is (check DW, The Guardian, almost anywhere).... the so called cease fire in Iran is just a lie. The war is ongoing, and Iran just seriously damaged a US base in Kuwait. This is a giant mess and we're coasting along on fumes in term of the oil shock impact on the whole world economy. Everything Trump touches dies. --Rick Wilson. Almost literally true. 

 

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31 May 2026

Tick tock Donald Trump regime

You see the Hemingway quote about bankruptcy happening gradually then suddenly all over lately. (Partly because Trumponomics is causing a lot of it). Anyway. It's in the air. And I think it's because what's happening gradually, then suddenly, is the fall from any real power of Donald Trump. He will remain president, unless he dies, until January 2029. But I think he will lose the ability to actually govern, because he is losing credibility even with his own party, including right wing judges. Tick tock. But suddenly an avalanche. Maybe I'm being Polyannaish, but I think so. 

 

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28 May 2026

Spectacular Corruption in the Justice System Exposed by Sen. Whitehouse

This is almost unbelievable. Yet it's true. The Trump Regime has broken the justice system and if it's not fixed soon it will be beyond repair. 


 

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Trump to roll out NDAs? Hold on!

There are reports that the Trump Regime intends to "roll out" widespread use of NDAs (non-disclosure agreements) for regime lackeys, ... er, employees. Let me say it bluntly: governments exist solely for the purpose of serving the public interest. The regime itself has no legitimate interests other than the public interest. So NDAs must never be allowed. Period. Very limited secrecy for national security can be enforced by laws, but never by private contracts. Personally, I think we need a rigid test of consistency with public interest for all such agreements (at minimum), but there is simply no ethical construction for the idea that they are legitimate for governments. If the courts fail to see it this way, then there's yet another Costitutional Amendment we have to somehow pass. In the meantime, once Trump is booted out, we need to make them illegal by statute. 

  

27 May 2026

Re: Democratic opportunity , let's not blow it

Yeah!

-
Sue Cohen
Past Membership Dir. in Public Radio from 1985, had a show, receptionist, boardop, Past ESL tchr  

"The worst people sometimes have something of value to say, the best people sometimes say stupid things."

The information contained in this e-mail is intended for the e-mail recipient and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient of this e-mail, please erase all copies of the message and its attachments. Please note that this e-mail has been created in the knowledge that Internet e-mail is not a 100% secure communications medium.

On Wed, May 27, 2026, 10:32 AM David Studhalter <oldionus@gmail.com> wrote:
I am pretty sick and tired of "establishment" Democrats nervously tittling about Graham Platner, the presumptive nominee in a Senate race we simply have to win. It reminds me of the way Centrist Democrats would always undermine Bernie Sanders with doom and gloom prognostications, when the actual numbers were quite different. And the hypocrisy of criticizing someone's hyberbolic youthful indiscretions when the alternative, people like Chuck Schumer who opposed the JCPOA (rememeber that?), has always deferred to AIPAC, and sold out to Trump on the first shutdown ... (I could go on and on)... are far less representative of what potential Democratic voters actually want and expect from government. 

We Democrats need to be a big tent, sure, but we need to stop shooting at our own best candidates, focus on what's important, which is winning control, and actually stand for what the American people want. Across the board, our so called leaders fall short, and it's people like Platner who speak plainly and will act accordingly. 

Look, folks. The very continued existence of our democracy is at stake, and we must pull together, pass the torch, nominate and elect new faces with new ideas, and be prepared to commence the gargantuan task of repairing all the damage that's been done, and in the process correct the myriad systematic problems underlying our current state of affairs. Oh, is that all? Yep, that's about it. We may only really get one shot at this, but this is our opportunity, and if we fail to take it quibbling with our own, we are fools. 

 

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Cool Worlds: most stars cannot host life, and a comment on the implications


Something like 74% of all stars are M dwarfs (aka red dwarfs). You don't see them even in a dark sky, because even from a few light years, they're too dim to see with the naked eye. But it actually is most of the stars that exist. The very closest star, Proxima Centauri, is an M dwarf. 

But here's another aspect of all this to consider. It is clear that most of the star systems in the universe (or Galaxy, same argument) are never going to give rise to planets capable of hosting the origin and persistent existence of life on their surfaces. And of the ones where a planet so capable could exist in principle, only a small fraction will actually contain such a planet. Fine; there are a hell of a lot of planets, and even one in a million is many millions in a typical galaxy. We now know for a certain fact that nearly all stars, from M dwarfs up to B type blue giants (possibly excluding the very brightest ones), have planets. 

But what about the future of life, or what in other places may be in the past, but a major turning point. Intelligence, at least in our imagination, has conceived of spreading life out into the cosmos. Creating artificial habitats. Seeding life on planets of other stars where it did not get going on its own but could exist now. Terraforming worlds that aren't quite good enough. Etc. etc. Much of the universe, naturally dead, can come to life if intelligent beings like ourselves introduce life to those environments. Matter and useful energy are incredibly abundant in the universe. Distance is a huge problem, but patience is the answer. Set your automated ships asail in deep space and just wait; eventually they arrive at another star, where energy is free just like it is here. We are in no rush; if we settle down into a sustainable existence here in our neck of the woods, the future is long, and one consequence of the rarity of life is that we don't seem likely to run into competition any time soon. 

I think this is the likely actual future of our species, and is likely to have already happened countless times in other nooks and crannies of our incredibly vast universe. It's like a waiting stage of the evolution of the Biosphere. And not to get all teleological on you, but it's hard not to think of this as the purpose of the evolution of intelligence. 

 

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Democratic opportunity , let's not blow it

I am pretty sick and tired of "establishment" Democrats nervously tittling about Graham Platner, the presumptive nominee in a Senate race we simply have to win. It reminds me of the way Centrist Democrats would always undermine Bernie Sanders with doom and gloom prognostications, when the actual numbers were quite different. And the hypocrisy of criticizing someone's hyberbolic youthful indiscretions when the alternative, people like Chuck Schumer who opposed the JCPOA (rememeber that?), has always deferred to AIPAC, and sold out to Trump on the first shutdown ... (I could go on and on)... are far less representative of what potential Democratic voters actually want and expect from government. 

We Democrats need to be a big tent, sure, but we need to stop shooting at our own best candidates, focus on what's important, which is winning control, and actually stand for what the American people want. Across the board, our so called leaders fall short, and it's people like Platner who speak plainly and will act accordingly. 

Look, folks. The very continued existence of our democracy is at stake, and we must pull together, pass the torch, nominate and elect new faces with new ideas, and be prepared to commence the gargantuan task of repairing all the damage that's been done, and in the process correct the myriad systematic problems underlying our current state of affairs. Oh, is that all? Yep, that's about it. We may only really get one shot at this, but this is our opportunity, and if we fail to take it quibbling with our own, we are fools. 

 

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26 May 2026

Trusting what AI tells you

If you talk to LLMs much this will seem familiar. 
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MAD all over again?

I imagine most of my farflung correspondents' interest in military tactics is limited, but this video leads me to believe 1) Ukraine is winning decisively at this point; and 2) drone technology is approaching the level that it will be a new "MAD" (mutually assured destruction) phenomenon, whereby in the future nations will be very keen to avoid armed conflict because it will be impossible to resist drones, and there will be no winners in a drone vs. drone war. Which could be a good thing. 

The test for survival of sophonts (intelligent species, universally) is whether they can learn to cooperate instead of fight. Fighters die. All the way to extinction. Which are we?  

25 May 2026

​Why composers still study Bach.... Charles Rosen

Why composers still study Bach.... Charles Rosen
Worth watching

 

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AI and learning a language

Language pedagogy companies like Babbel are facing a big challenge all of a sudden, and if they don't contract with Anthropic or OpenAI or Google pretty soon they may be doomed. Turns out one thing LLM AI is really good at is talking to you in a language you're trying to learn. It will actually respond to you and talk about whatever you want, and you can stop it and ask it to explain stuff you don't understand. It's quietly revolutionizing language learning. And they know a whole slew of languages, not just French, Spanish and German. You could learn Mandarin, Hindi, Ukrainian, or many others that are pretty useful to people contemplating careers right now. 

One thing... apparently this kind of live voice conversation is very resource thirsty so most accounts limit how much you can use it. And with the growing backlash at subsidizing the huge costs of AI farms, this kind of use may be considered a pricey commodity in the future. 

 

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24 May 2026

Rick Wilson interview about the history of the Ukraine war

This is worth watching. Especially when they're talking about how it was the Russian invasion that caused the nation of Ukraine to cohere and unite against what everyone now unequivocally sees as an agressive invasion by a hostile foreign power. That almost everyone in Ukraine was going to come to see it this way, and devote their loyalty entirely and only to their country, was not obvious or even highly probable at the outset of this conflict.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60ZOjvXgj_k

 

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22 May 2026

Ukraine is mopping up the Russian navy

There is a major and successful attack on the only remaining Russian Black Sea Fleet deepwater port. But, as this account actually mentions, you won't read much about it even in the British press, and certainly not the NY Times or other American media. But it actually is a big deal. 


 

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Is Trump actually deliberately wrecking everything?

Perhaps I'm overstating it a bit, but spending millions to defeat Republicans (Cassidy, Massie, Cornyn) while more and more MAGAts are relizing he's been lying to them all along, endorsing deeply unpopular policies, outright stealing from the government and wanting to build all kinds of useless crap all over hte capital, while driving up costs and especially gas costs, and engaging us in foreign wars when he promised he wouldn't... and to top it off, posting crazy shit like this (below) all the time now and displaying all sorts of evidence of dementia and declining physical health...
doesn't it start to look like Trump is actually trying to destroy the Republican party and to become the most hated president ever? Which itself is pretty damn scary. What incredible evil is he capable of when he cares nothing even about his own reputation? And we really do seem to be headed that way. 


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20 May 2026

This corruption has got to be challenged and stopped

Nearly everyone acknowledges that this "settlement" the Trump regime is attempting to foist off on us to basically give Trump a $2B slush fund at taxpayer expense, and, even worse, covenant not to prosecute him or his family for tax crimes that almost certainly are there to be prosecuted.... is corruption on an African dictator scale. Right here in the USA. Makes Teapot Dome look like an afternoon tea party. But we're not gonna fall for it. Come on, legal eagles! There has to be a way to get standing to challenge this in court and not allow this travesty of justice and process to go forward. There just has to be. 

 

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19 May 2026

Insider trading in the regime

OK, thanks to the AntiConstitutional Court, Trump can't be prosecuted for his hypersteroidal insider trading. But Eric and Junior and Ivanka and Jared can. And Nutlick. For their sake, I hope their lawyers have explained the statute of limitations to them. And that they realize that even if they have a "plan" to destroy democracy and keep their authoritarian cabal in power forever, they may not work out, and they just might find themselves on the inside of a state prison or even federal penitentiary in 2029. But actually, I hope they're as delusional as they appear to be, because they deserve it. All of them. 

 

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17 May 2026

The East Wing

Recent perhaps somewhat speculative reporting indicates that one of the real reasons Trump is so determined to build the Ballroom is as a cover for what's really going on... which is not only the bunker he hopes will help him keep power till he dies, but also the one-person hospital they're building since he's been told he is dying. Which is all so weird; people like him can't really believe anything negative about themselves, so he probably has some ridiculous idea that he can be kept alive forever by "the best healthcare" that he can force the executive support system to provide for him. Somehow none of this is going to end well, that much is clear. 

 

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16 May 2026

Fighting back in 2026, 2028

I have a superi simple motto, one of many, Dems need to use in the upcoming elections.  Gerrymandering is cheating. Americans don't like cheaters. 

We lost the contest to see who could cheat (where we were reacting to them), so now we have to stand for eliminating fundamental unfairness in our system (along with eliminating the corruption that is becoming increasingly blatant and unpopular). 
How about a picture of Trump moving a golf ball. With that line underneath it. 
 

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MUSICA SUMMUM DOLOREM CANIT ATQUE ITA COMMUTAT ~  

SUMMAM LAETITIAM SALTAT ATQUE ITA ANIMOS CAPIT

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12 May 2026

Justin Wolfers

Justin Wolfers's comments on AI in this video are scary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piEpTx1-2f0&list=TLPQMTIwNTIwMjaVxYVfPe2c6g&index=6 
 

Musical therapy

I am of the firmly held belief that the only thing keeping me sane these days is working on playing (however crudely) the preludes and fugues of the Well Tempered Clavier. Fortunately, although apparently the finite work of but one human being, it is a nearly limitless well. 

 

  


.....
"The answer" to life, the universe & everything isn't 42 (Sorry, Douglas Adams), but 1/137, known as the fine structure constant, Î± (alpha), a pure, dimensionless number equal to the proportional strength of the electromagnetic interaction between elementary charged particles (which is essentially everything we actually see and feel):
α = e24πε0ħc ⁠ 1/137.0
Why it has this value, very close to the ratio of two integers, and not some other arbitrary value, is a cosmic mystery. 

11 May 2026

We can do it... they're making it hard, but there are a lot more of us now

I say stuff like this all the time, but it bears repeating. The Fascists have been trying really hard to screw up the upcoming midterm elections, including with highly politicized court decisions, but we have a huge majority right now, so we have to just overcome their stolen advantages. And here's my approach to restoring democratic governance, assuming we are able to defeat Trumpism across the board in 2028, which is simply a "must-do."

Expanding the court to the same number as appellate circuits (13) has historical precedent, logic, and sound reasoning behind it. Term limits or age limits for justices are--at best-- questionably constitutional, but court expansion by STATUTE has precedent and is clearly constitutional. The court would risk losing all legitimacy if they tried to resist it. So my solution is: ADD 2 states (Puerto Rico and DC), increase the court to 13, pass a comprehensive new Voting Rights Act with anti-gerrymandering provisions, carefully written by Constitutional scholars, and include in it explicit statement that the Supreme Court lacks jurisdiction to overrule it (for which there is also precedent, and Roberts himself wrote about it in the 80s).

Then get to work on a substantive justice and economic agenda to end corruption and give Americans a new NEW DEAL. And massive anti-corruption and anti-conflict of interest reforms for the executive, judiciary, and Congress (no stock trading, for example). Make it so everyone understands--once again-- that you don't go into government to get rich, because the regulations and ethics provisions just don't allow it. Period.

If Democrats did all these things, they could completely change course and set up a new era that the Republicans (or whatever replaces them) will be unable to upset for 20 years. We CAN DO IT, but we have to really work at it. It may even eventually be possible to fix the disproportion of the Senate and end the Electoral College with hugely popular Constitutional Amendments, but the current Constitution makes that extraordinarily difficult.

 

  

 

09 May 2026

The Virginia redistricting decision

Although I am first to criticize the lack of common sense and inability to stick to facts of most LLMs ("AI"), this response to my question by ChatGPT is very telling. BTW, if I had asked the question with a bias towards the outcome, the answer would have been different. But I think this is nonetheless interesting and largely correct. 

My question: 

  I'm pretty shocked by the Virginia Supreme Court decision on the redistricting referendum. I thought courts were deferential to votes of legislative bodies, but EVEN MORE deferential to actual votes of the electorate. And given the recent green light to the most egregious gerrymandering by the US Supreme Court, I don't get how they could reach this decision with a straight face. Can you explain its rationale, and whether the consensus is that it's a primarily politically motivated decision?   


ChatGPT (Open AI)'s answer: 

Your reaction is not unusual. A great many legal commentators — including some who are not especially sympathetic to partisan Democratic redistricting — seem to think the Virginia Supreme Court majority reached for a highly technical procedural rationale in order to invalidate a result it politically disliked. The decision has already generated a lot of commentary precisely because it feels in tension with the modern judiciary’s generally extreme reluctance to overturn enacted maps or voter-approved measures. (Vox)

The core of the court’s reasoning was not, formally speaking, about whether the map itself was an impermissible gerrymander. In fact, after the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Rucho v. Common Cause, federal courts largely treat partisan gerrymandering as a “political question” outside their competence. So the Virginia court instead focused on the amendment process itself.

Under the Virginia constitution, constitutional amendments proposed by the legislature must pass in two separate legislative sessions with an intervening general election between them, so voters can theoretically weigh the issue when electing legislators. The majority held that the first legislative approval happened after early voting had already begun for the relevant election. Therefore, they reasoned, the constitutionally required “intervening election” had already started, meaning the process was defective from the outset. (PBS)

That sounds technical because it is technical. The entire dispute turned on what counts as an “election.” Does “the election” mean Election Day itself, or does it mean the entire early-voting period? The majority adopted the latter interpretation. Since some Virginians had already cast ballots before the legislature acted, the court concluded those voters were deprived of the chance to evaluate legislators’ positions on the amendment before voting. (PBS)

The dissenters reportedly argued this interpretation was both overly formalistic and democratically perverse because the electorate ultimately did vote directly on the amendment itself. In other words, even if the procedural sequence was imperfect, the people ratified it anyway. That is very close to the intuition you expressed. (Vox)

And that gets to the heart of why so many observers see the ruling as politically motivated.

Courts are indeed often deferential to enacted legislation. But they are especially deferential to constitutional amendments approved by voters, because striking one down means overriding not merely legislators but the sovereign electorate itself. Traditionally, courts usually require a very clear constitutional violation before doing that.

Here, critics argue the court:

adopted the narrowest and most outcome-determinative reading possible of “election,”
treated early voting as constitutionally transformative in a way Virginia precedent had not clearly established,
and imposed an exceptionally rigid procedural standard despite the referendum’s actual ratification by millions of voters. (Vox)

The broader political context also matters enormously. This case arose amid an escalating national tit-for-tat redistricting war after Republican-controlled states such as Texas and Florida pursued aggressive mid-decade remaps. Virginia Democrats openly intended this amendment as a countermeasure that could shift as many as four House seats toward Democrats. (The Guardian)

That context makes the asymmetry feel striking to many people:

Federal courts, including the current U.S. Supreme Court, have largely tolerated highly aggressive partisan gerrymanders.
But the Virginia court then invalidated a voter-approved Democratic response on procedural grounds.

So even people who dislike the Democratic map itself often see an inconsistency in judicial attitude. The message can appear to be: substantive partisan gerrymandering is acceptable, but procedural imperfections in attempts to counter it are fatal.

There is not complete consensus that the ruling was “purely political.” Conservative defenders argue that constitutional amendment procedures exist precisely to constrain temporary partisan passions, and that courts have a duty to enforce those procedures strictly regardless of consequences. They would say that if early voting has become part of the election itself, then legislators cannot constitutionally wait until voting is already underway before acting. That is at least a legally intelligible argument.

But the dominant reaction in mainstream legal commentary so far seems to be that the majority chose an unusually aggressive remedy and an unusually rigid interpretation in a context where courts normally bend heavily toward validating voter-approved measures. (Vox)


 

  


.....
"The answer" to life, the universe & everything isn't 42 (Sorry, Douglas Adams), but 1/137, known as the fine structure constant, Î± (alpha), a pure, dimensionless number equal to the proportional strength of the electromagnetic interaction between elementary charged particles (which is essentially everything we actually see and feel):
α = e24πε0ħc ⁠ 1/137.0
Why it has this value, very close to the ratio of two integers, and not some other arbitrary value, is a cosmic mystery.