03 February 2023
Unemployment at lowest level in decades... BAD news?
They're wearing their treason proud
28 January 2023
Tipping point on EVs
26 January 2023
Katie for Senate!
24 January 2023
A little planetary rhapsody
20 January 2023
Stupid, deliberately evasive report on the Dobbs leak
19 January 2023
Buy forever stamps
18 January 2023
Congressman Nadler is taking this suggestion seriously
17 January 2023
Renewable Energy Future
It begins
16 January 2023
Beautiful MLK Day «Letter from an American» (Heather Cox Richardson)
You hear sometimes that, now that we know the sordid details of the lives of some of our leading figures, America has no heroes left. When I was writing a book about the Wounded Knee Massacre, where heroism was pretty thin on the ground, I gave that a lot of thought. And I came to believe that heroism is neither being perfect, nor doing something spectacular. In fact, it's just the opposite: it's regular, flawed human beings, choosing to put others before themselves, even at great cost, even if no one will ever know, even as they realize the walls might be closing in around them. It means sitting down the night before D-Day and writing a letter praising the troops and taking all the blame for the next day's failure upon yourself, in case things went wrong, as General Dwight D. Eisenhower did. It means writing in your diary that you "still believe that people are really good at heart," even while you are hiding in an attic from the men who are soon going to kill you, as Anne Frank did. It means signing your name to the bottom of the Declaration of Independence in bold print, even though you know you are signing your own death warrant should the British capture you, as John Hancock did. It means defending your people's right to practice a religion you don't share, even though you know you are becoming a dangerously visible target, as Sitting Bull did. Sometimes it just means sitting down, even when you are told to stand up, as Rosa Parks did. None of those people woke up one morning and said to themselves that they were about to do something heroic. It's just that, when they had to, they did what was right. On April 3, 1968, the night before the Reverend Doctor Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated by a white supremacist, he gave a speech in support of sanitation workers in Memphis, Tennessee. Since 1966, King had tried to broaden the Civil Rights Movement for racial equality into a larger movement for economic justice. He joined the sanitation workers in Memphis, who were on strike after years of bad pay and such dangerous conditions that two men had been crushed to death in garbage compactors. After his friend Ralph Abernathy introduced him to the crowd, King had something to say about heroes: "As I listened to Ralph Abernathy and his eloquent and generous introduction and then thought about myself, I wondered who he was talking about." Dr. King told the audience that, if God had let him choose any era in which to live, he would have chosen the one in which he had landed. "Now, that's a strange statement to make," King went on, "because the world is all messed up. The nation is sick. Trouble is in the land; confusion all around…. But I know, somehow, that only when it is dark enough, can you see the stars." Dr. King said that he felt blessed to live in an era when people had finally woken up and were working together for freedom and economic justice. He knew he was in danger as he worked for a racially and economically just America. "I don't know what will happen now. We've got some difficult days ahead. But it doesn't matter…because I've been to the mountaintop…. Like anybody, I would like to live a long life…. But I'm not concerned about that now. I just want to do God's will. And He's allowed me to go up to the mountain. And I've looked over. And I've seen the promised land. I may not get there with you. But I want you to know tonight, that we, as a people, will get to the promised land!" People are wrong to say that we have no heroes left. Just as they have always been, they are all around us, choosing to do the right thing, no matter what. Wishing you all a day of peace for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, 2023. — Notes: Dr. King's final speech: |
15 January 2023
The state of the auto industry
- Worldwide, and in North America, the only segment of the new auto market that is increasing is the electric vehicle segment, and no automaker is currently able to keep up with demand. All other segments have had decreased sales year/year as of 2022. The oft repeated mantra touted by CEOs of companies like Toyota and BMW that people "don't really want EVs" is just not true. People really really want EVs and they can't get enough of them.
- None of the legacy makers can produce enough EVs to meet demand. The Cadillac Lyriq, introduced to great fanfare, sold less than 1500 vehicles in 2022. Not because of lack of demand, but because they can't produce anywhere near enough to meet demand, which causes price gouging in America's ridiculous dealer sales system. Ford has over 200,000 orders for its electric pick up truck, but can't anywhere near meet that demand. So, as you would expect, people are canceling orders. Tesla sales, especially in California, are breaking records.
- Tesla and BYD (Chinese) are currently the only automakers in the world that have done the legwork sufficiently that they can make EVs at scale and make a profit on them. Tesla projects over 1 million EVs in 2023, quite realistically, and intends to ramp up from there to however many there is demand for. They have a huge plant in Shanghai and another in Texas, waiting to be expanded. One reason other makers cannot match this growth for now is that both VW and GM (for example) had close to $1 billion in recall and warranty chargeoffs in the last year, whereas Tesla's was not only much less in dollars, it was less than 10% of that on a per car basis. EVs are just much more reliable than ICE cars, cost less to operate, and last longer without mechanical failures on average. (Batteries are part of that, lasting longer and maintaining reliability better). Tesla will benefit from the US tax rebate, whereas the Chinese will not, so this is a huge plus for them, especially in North America.
- Batteries are following something similar to Moore's law in the current industrialization phase. Technologies are emerging that allow production at scale for a fraction of the cost of even ten years ago, and new battery designs will not require increasingly expensive rare materials like lithium and cobalt. (A design already in preproduction replaces lithium with sodium, which is virtually inexhaustible and cheap). The only companies that are already in development of the latest, most efficient and cheapest battery technologies are the Chinese makers and... you guessed it... Tesla. This is likely to become the competitive edge in the next few years. Something similar is happening with solar cells; new technology allows them to be about 5% the weight, and to be made into flexible rolls that can be glued to almost any surface, so future EVs will get a significant fraction of their power from sunlight as they're running.
06 January 2023
Clavichord Nearing Completion
My Silbermann replica 61 key unfretted clavichord, nearing completion in Pennsylvania in the workshop of master harpsichord/clavichord builder Douglas Maple. (Not yet strung).
05 January 2023
Red Lentil Flat Bread (Masoor dal chilla)
Good News on Solar Power
01 January 2023
The (very brief) Lovingkindness Sutra.
Happy New Year, and may these thoughts be of benefit. (I take the last lines a tad metaphorically, but there is real wisdom here).
"This is what should be done By one who is skilled in goodness, And who knows the path of peace: Let them be able and upright, Straightforward and gentle in speech. Humble and not conceited, Contented and easily satisfied, Unburdened with duties and frugal in their ways. Peaceful and calm, and wise and skillful, Not proud and demanding in nature. Let them not do the slightest thing That the wise would later reprove. Wishing: In gladness and in safety, May all beings be at ease. Whatever living beings there may be; Whether they are weak or strong, omitting none, The great or the mighty, medium, short or small, The seen and the unseen, Those living near and far away, Those born and to-be-born, May all beings be at ease! Let none deceive another, Or despise any being in any state. Let none through anger or ill-will Wish harm upon another. Even as a mother protects with her life Her child, her only child, So with a boundless heart Should one cherish all living beings: Radiating kindness over the entire world Spreading upwards to the skies, And downwards to the depths; Outwards and unbounded, Freed from hatred and ill-will. Whether standing or walking, seated or lying down Free from drowsiness, One should sustain this recollection. This is said to be the sublime abiding. By not holding to fixed views, The pure-hearted one, having clarity of vision, Being freed from all sense desires, Is not born again into this world."
― Spinoza (Ethics)
Happy New Year
May all beings enjoy happiness, and the root of happiness.May we be free from suffering, and the root of suffering.May we never be separated from the great happiness, devoid of suffering.May we dwell in the great equanimity, free from passion, aggression and prejudice.
The Four Limitless Qualities (rewrite)May all beings be happy, and know the root of happiness.
May we be free from suffering, and know the root of suffering.
May we experience joy when others are joyful.
May our minds repose in equanimity, free from passion, aggression, and prejudice.
31 December 2022
On the authoritarian government in Israel and American policy
30 December 2022
On economists
--Jack Vance (1916-2013)
Age of Wonder
The observable portion of the universe contains approximately the same number of large galaxies (as large as or larger than the Milky Way's companion galaxies visible in the southern skies, the Large and Small Clouds of Magellan) as there are stars in the Milky Way Galaxy... about 200 billion. That's about 17 galaxies for every man, woman and child on Earth. And that's just the part of the universe we could, in principle, see. Beyond that, far more, maybe an incredibly large factor more. The large scale structure is inhomogeneous on a pretty large scale: there are large voids, up to a billion light years in diameter, where there are few galaxies, and there are tendrils and filaments where they are more concentrated, somewhat like suds or froth, but on the very largest scales, including the vast extent beyond the cosmic light horizon, it is believed to be essentially homogeneous, approximately the same in every direction. I wanted to say "as far as the eye can see," but, actually, it's much, much farther than the eye can see. To quote a line from my favorite speculative fiction author, Jack Vance, "and to think some believe the Age of Wonder to be past and gone!"
Trump Tax Evader
29 December 2022
Jamie Raskin diagnosis
― Spinoza
Trump to split Republicans?
Asking Chatbot about Power Distribution
After the power outage we just lived through galvanized my interest (pardon the pun), I asked the chatbot ChatGPT about power distribution technologies. Its answer was predictable, but it shows me that the solution, in particular with regard to local distribution, is actually pretty obvious. We are still using essentially 1930s power distribution technology in much of America. And, given the climate crisis and technological changes we must make, it's just not good enough. We need to invest in new distribution technology, including battery storage at the building-level (including private homes), and replacing overhead lines with hardened underground transmission. This isn't rocket science. But it requires willingness to spend the money, which is a policy issue. Good example of the short sighted stupidity of reflexive condemnation of government's role in making our infrastructure better. We can either do these things or we can fall hopelessly behind. Which is it gonna be?
ME:Are there new technologies on the horizon to improve power transmission, both across long distances, and to prevent weather related outages from failures in local power distribution?
CHATBOT: Yes, there are a number of new technologies that have the potential to improve power transmission and distribution, both across long distances and in local networks. Here are a few examples:
High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission: HVDC transmission allows electricity to be transmitted over long distances with minimal loss, making it an attractive option for transmitting power from renewable energy sources such as solar and wind farms.
Superconducting cables: Superconducting cables have extremely low electrical resistance and can transmit large amounts of electricity with minimal loss. They are currently being developed for use in power transmission and distribution systems.
Smart grids: Smart grids use advanced technologies such as sensors, smart meters, and control systems to improve the efficiency and reliability of the electric power system. They can also help to prevent power outages caused by weather or other disruptions.
Underground power transmission: Underground power transmission involves burying power lines underground, which can help to prevent power outages caused by storms or other weather-related events. It is also more aesthetically pleasing than overhead transmission lines.
Energy storage systems: Energy storage systems such as batteries and pumped hydro storage can store excess electricity generated by renewable energy sources and release it when needed, helping to improve the reliability and stability of the power grid.
28 December 2022
Power back on... but it only illustrates the scope of a crisis
26 December 2022
Gov. Abbott's cruel and hideous stunt
24 December 2022
Democratic Values, Redux
· Humility
· Compassion
· Caring for the Poor, the aged, the sick
· Caring for and educating the young
· Loving your neighbor as yourself
I am a Conservative:
· I believe in conservation and protecting our precious environment
· I believe the government should pay as it goes, and not accumulate enormous debt to burden this generation's children and grandchildren and harm our nation's economy in the World
· I believe taxes should be fair, and not unduly benefit the wealthy with tax advantages
· I believe our country should be strong and should defend its interests, but it should not be the world's policeman
· I believe in Fair Trade, which favors American jobs for Americans, not the interests of multinational corporations
I am a Patriot and I believe in the Constitution:
· Elections should be fair, congress should reflect the will of the people
· I believe in Freedom of Expression, even when I disagree or am offended, because it makes America stronger
I am a Democrat.