Tester! But also Allred! Kamala's ability to really govern at stake!

Far-flung friends of freedom!

I've focused my energy (and limited ability to donate) on the Tester Senate race in Montana, which is mostly unpolled. A small number of Republican bought and paid-for polls don't really tell the story, which is that the race is close, but we don't really know who's leading. Per Simon Rosenthal, the Democrats on the ground in the Tester campaign and the national party apparatus do believe this race is at least competitive. It's also considered pretty much a must-win if Democrats are to be able to retain control of the Senate. 

The stakes are so high. Even with winning back the House and winning the presidency, (certainly realistic goals), Madame President Harris would have little chance of enacting a systematic legislative agenda, or even be able to keep up the flow of judicial appointments, including even Supreme Court appointments, without Senate Control. 

But, now it appears there is at least a chance, not as good as incumbent Tester's odds, but a chance, that Colin Allred might be able to defeat the odious Ted Cruz in Texas. A recent credible poll showed him 1% ahead, well within the margin of error, but a first positive-territory major poll. Representing at least enough of a chance of winning to deserve our support. Accordingly, today I sent a small contribution to his campaign. Call it an insurance policy... it is not impossible we could lose Montana but squeak out a win in Texas. I would truly hate for that to not happen for want of just a relatively small number of Democrats' support. 

Even in Florida, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Democrat Mucarsel-Powell to overtake and defeat Medicare fraudster Rick Scott. This is more of a long-shot, but certainly worth keeping an eye on, and even tipping a few bucks into. If we win Texas and Florida, it's likely Tester would win, too, and we could end up with 52-48. This is definitely optimistic, but far from out of the question. (Note: we will still need to end the filibuster once and for all, but I'm convinced that if Kamala Harris puts out the word she wants this, it would happen). 

Forward! We have a historic, possibly last-chance, opportunity to put an end to Trumpism and get on with what needs to be done for the good of our country and its people! And we must not lose sight of the fact that these Senate races are critical to that effort. 

I thank you for your consideration. 

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 HARRIS

WALZ

Our Champions for Democracy

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More exposure is the key for Harris and Walz

I'm just gonna say it. Trump is increasingly deranged and more and more looks and acts like an old man who feels threatened and put upon, and who is beginning to show the initial signs of age related dementia. And Harris is a brilliant politician who conveys sincere interest in doing the American People's business. But. He knows one thing if nothing else: keep your name and image in the news cycle every day. It's the old saw "there's no just thing as bad publicity. And he's doing this better than she is. Harris and Walz need to ramp up their game of making news. Make major announcements as often as possible. Do more TV and podcast interviews. As Walz likes to say, sleep when you're dead. It's not as if they're not doing this already. But they have to do it better. Walz is a valuable asset, but we're not  seeing enough of him, with his appeal to rural and working people. We are, to all indications, winning. But it's way, way too close and the stakes are higher than before.   

Nebraska's refusal to go along with right wing scheme could actually decide the election

It is just possible that the failure of the Fascists, led by Lindsey Graham, to get Nebraska to change its allocation of electors from the current by-district system to a winner take all system in time for the election, will mean the difference between defeat and victory for Harris. 

If she were to win all the "safe states" plus the blue wall of MI, WI, and PA, but lose NC, GA, AZ, and NV (a not-terribly unlikely possibility), she would have 269 to Trump's 269. But if Harris gets the Omaha district, it would be 270 to 268, and Harris wins.. Of course none of this has anything to do with who actually wins the popular vote (which means "wins the election" in every advanced democracy other than ours). Harris will win the popular vote; almost certainly. But it does determine who decides who will be president. If there were a tie in the Electoral College, the election would be thrown to the House, and with the extremely undemocratic (and so far never used) system the Constitution specifies, it would be decided by one-state one-vote, rather than just the vote of the House. And although the Republicans are only about 45% of the population, they have more states, so they would win. It is actually possible for Harris to win by 10 million votes or more nationwide and still lose the Electoral College. We just can't let that happen, but at least the one vote in the Omaha district remains available, and will likely go to Harris. It just could make all the difference. 

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 HARRIS

WALZ

Our Champions for Democracy

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Today's piano workshop 10 AM

Today's workshop

Join Zoom Meeting https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82914200597 Meeting ID: 829 1420 0597

Really pretty simple

Dr. Bandy Lee, a psychiatrist who sounded an early warning about the obvious mental health issues of Donald Trump, sums up the present situation. Trump is a psychopath, pure and simple, and such people, when placed in positions of power and authority, always abuse that power and cause great damage to the institutions, or governments, over which they are given responsibility and power. Which of course is why people who really understand this about him are horrified at the prospect of his being elected to high office again. 

Heather Cox Richardson today

This is well worth reading. https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/september-14-2024?r=8kzi3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email 

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 HARRIS

WALZ

Our Champions for Democracy

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Why I deplore authoritarianism everywhere

I got into a discussion of far right parties in Europe, such as the Alternativ für Deutschland, and the right wing parties in Poland, Hungary, Turkiye, Italy, France, and Spain. And I mused the following, as my reason for opposing these movements with every fiber of my being. 

These right wing parties share a fundamental belief in authority, whether of institutions or a strongman, and a skepticism of both the desirability and the possibility of democracy. Flawed as it is, representative democracy as a governing principle is the only one that has ever led to government even partially in the interests of ordinary people, as opposed to the rich and powerful. And when authoritarians have interposed their perquisites and power "in the name of" the people, such as the Marxist Leninist revolutions in Russia, China and the former Soviet sphere, the result has been indistinguishable from violent fascism in almost all respects other than semantics. 

The current authoritarian regimes in Russia and China (and to a slightly lesser extent India, Iran and Israel) are constrained by geopolitics to some extent, but they represent a trend of history I deplore utterly, that being authoritarianism. Which I think of as "early stage totalitarianism," since the progression of one to the other seems to be all but universal throughout history. Authoritarians may or may not ally themselves with other authoritarian regimes, but what they all oppose is democracy, especially in their own countries. 

Every authoritarian country has its liberal minority (sometimes underground), and every "democratic" country has its authoritarian institutions and factions, but when a broad comparison is made, there is none. Only countries with intact legal systems guaranteeing actual election of the government, with the ability to unelect them still intact, are places where stable prosperity and opportunity for self-directed lifestyle are even possible. These far right parties don't accept this, and all I can say is, that's the way to the nightmare of totalitarianism, to be resisted by any means to hand.

The Descent of Man

This is super interesting. 

David Reich – How One Small Tribe Conquered the World 70,000 Years Ago

Bright comet?

Decent chance of a bright comet coming. Watch this space. 

We must come together and win this election, and not just the presidency

Even though it does now seem more likely than not that Harris & Walz will pull it out and win this election, we who support democracy simply cannot let up. Please contribute what you can, whether in money or your time. But I want to emphasize what I consider to be equally important. The House flip seems also relatively more likely, but contributing time and funds (if you can) to key House races is also vital. I live in a flippable district, Oregon 5, so that will get a lot of my attention. And possibly even more critical is the Senate, where retaining control is going to be a long shot. Manchin is out and W VA is lost. That means we have to run the table pretty much to retain control. Here's my list: 

Rosen in Nevada

Gallego in Arizona

Slotkin in Michigan

Baldwin in Wisconsin

Brown in Ohio

Tester in Montana ... very tight, even leans R 

Casey in Pennsylvania

Alsobrooks in Maryland... a surprisingly close race

There is also at least a chance for Mucarsel-Powell in Florida (against Medicare crook Scott) and Colin Allred in Texas (against Ted Cruz). 

We don't have to win every one of these (and both FL and TX are real long shots), but we need to win almost all of them. So anything you can do to help Democrats keep the Senate is worth the investment. If Harris is to win and have a genuinely consequential presidency, given the obstructionist character of modern Republicans, we must have both Houses. We simply must. If we don't, we will muddle through, but we can't afford any more muddling. Climate action, court reform, voting rights reform... the list of must-dos is long. 

Thanks, folks. 

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 HARRIS

WALZ

Our Champions for Democracy

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Say it ain't so, Thuringians

I want to believe it's not much more than historical coincidence, but the region of Germany known as Thuringia is the birthplace of both Heinrich Schütz (Köstritz, now Bad Köstritz, 1585) and Bach (Eisenach, 1685). It is also nowadays the geographic stronghold of the NeoNazi Alternativ für Deutschland party.  

Freeze out Elon Musk

In light of his stated willingness to engage in activities which are a clear conflict of interest, despite being a major contractor with the US government, I would advocate that the Harris administration, if we succeed (as we must), should formally or informally reduce its involvement with Elon Musk, SpaceX, and Starlink, and pursue anti monopoly policies wherever possible.

I say this as a Tesla owner. Musk heads up some great enterprises that have accomplished some remarkable things. But country comes first, above private interests, and certainly above political affiliations. And if he fails to adhere to that principle, he should be frozen out. The US should not be beholden to or dependent on any one person or organization for any vital interest. Perhaps if SpaceX, Tesla and Starlink find themselves the subject of internal sanctions, they will rein in their putative leader and act like the good corporate citizens all enterprises hoping to do business with the US government must be required to be. 

What is at stake

You know, I can freak about the election as readily as the next guy. But I can also look beyond an anticipated (more than hoped for) victory of the forces of democracy and reason to a time when Trump and Trumpism is in the rearview mirror of a country where elections work and we use civil processes to decide our policies. And I actually think the unity that will be required for that to happen will be good for our country. Already we are making common cause with Dick Cheney for crying out loud. And I look at Dick Cheney and very conservative Republicans and I no longer think of them, on any level, really, as enemies. They are political opponents, with whom, in our country's hour of need, we must, and we do, make common cause. The truth is we have far more interests in common with them than the issues where we disagree would make it seem. We stand for our Constitution and our principles of self-rule and majority rule, however imperfectly applied... together. Against the authoritarian, minoritarian, racist and misogynist would-be dictatorship that is what Trump and Trumpism stand for. Once we have broken through, we will have an opportunity to reset the system. There will be reforms. We will make sure we really do have majority rule. And it will be their challenge to achieve majorities, legitimately. Which, make no mistake, sometimes they will. This is how it needs to be. It's the essence, the sine qua non, of democracy. And we will have compromise, civil discourse, and a type of unity once taken for granted but now understood to be something vital, something worth working for, something even to make sacrifices for. I am hopeful. And I feel a sense of patriotism and determination to save our country and its system that I have really never felt before. And that, my friends, is a good thing. 

Onwards to the victory we simply MUST achieve. There is no excuse or acceptance of failure. 

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 HARRIS

WALZ

Our Champions for Democracy

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What this election is really all about

There is absolutely no excuse for supporting Trump. This is not an election about policy, or philosophy of governance, or ideology. It is about whether we have a democratic republican system.... or Fascism. That simple. If you don't see that, you're not paying enough attention or you have been taken in by lies and propaganda. But that's just not acceptable. We cannot afford to lose, as there will be no going back. 

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 HARRIS

WALZ

Our Champions for Democracy

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Don't panic over Nate Silver

No claim of originality here. The Harris campaign is actually using Nate Silver's claim that Trump is ahead in the electoral count to motivate supporters to give more and work harder. Which is great. But a reality check is in order. As Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg have pointed out, Silver, without sound reasons, is factoring in what has been referred to as a "sugar high," in other words a flush of support or honeymoon for Harris, which his model predicts will evaporate. But the actual facts pretty strongly suggest this is exaggerated if not out and out unfounded. Since Dobbs, Democrats have consistently overperformed, not underperformed, polls, and, while new voter registration was poor in 2016 and hardly better in 2020, it was stupendous in 2022 and played a big role in the avoidance of the predicted Red Wave that year. This year, it was sluggish before July 21, but has been completely off the charts (up 176% among black women, for example) since then. And donations, including first time donations, are breaking all records by large margins. Moreover, while the traditional "convention bounce" was perhaps not quite as great as hoped, the trendlines of support for Harris have been quite consistently upward. Most models that use indicative data in addition to polling give greater weight to these things than the kind of "vibes" data that Silver is apparently using. If you're familiar with Bayesian reasoning, Silver is giving substantial weight in his Bayesian "priors" to data that is not actually based on anything measurable, while underweighting these kinds of actual real world data. 

All of which is to say, don't panic. Rosenberg had pretty much stopped saying "I'd much rather be us than them" in the weeks just before and after the disastrous July debate, but since Biden withdrew and Harris consolidated the support of the party in a pitch-perfect manner in the time leading up to the convention, he has been saying it with greater force and emphasis than ever. We have a lot of work to do and this election is not in the bag. But we are in a far, far better position than they are. We should take heart. We are winning, and we can sustain this momentum for the 60 days until the election. It will take determination, money, and hard work, but we can do it, and we must. 

Oh, and if you likes you your "unscientific" prediction models, know that Alan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted every presidential election at least 60 days out since 1980, has issued his "Keys to the Whitehouse" prediction: Harris wins. He has two "keys" based on foreign policy which he says could still flip, but Harris wins anyway in his model. 

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 HARRIS

WALZ

Our Champions for Democracy

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Fwd: September 1, 2024

I subscribe to Heather Cox Richardson's substack, which usually deals with current affairs, but this one contains an excellent brief history of the origins of American Labor Day. Richardson is one of our most diligent and communicative public intellectuals. 

Almost one hundred and forty-two years ago, on September 5, 1882, workers in New York City celebrated the first Labor Day holiday with a parade.

͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­͏     ­

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Arlington event

I'm guessing most of my far-flung correspondents are sick of hearing about Trump's utterly disrespectfully commandeering of Section 60 at Arlington National Cemetery for an incredibly tone deaf, offensive, and patently illegal campaign event. But while mostly symbolic, I think this is actually a pretty big deal, as it combines many of the very reasons Trump is so obviously the most unqualified person ever to stand for election to the presidency in a serious way. It's arrogant, self-serving, self-aggrandizing, utterly disrespectful of the service of the fallen and the grief of their loved ones, etc. But it was the altercation, the hint of Jan. 6 style violence and contempt for law, that is most concerning, in my view. There must be video somewhere. The DOJ or FBI should (if they haven't already) subpena the materials, identify who shoved the Arlington employee (assuming, as I do, that this did happen). And that person should be charged with assaulting a federal employee in the course of their duties, and prosecuted in a high profile and exemplary fashion. Not political, but there should be a strong signal that this kind of behavior is not only disgusting, it is illegal, and there will be consequences. If possible, an effort to lodge a civil fine against the Trump campaign for violating regulations against using Arlington as a backdrop for campaign events should also be pursued. 

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 HARRIS

WALZ

Our Champions for Democracy

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