14 February 2008

Million Dollar Question

Assuming Obama continues his roll, ending up with a clear majority of elected pledged delegates, will Hillary step aside rather than slog it out with the superdelegates and try to steal the nomination at the convention? (Which isn't till LABOR DAY, thereby giving McCain ALL SUMMER to tear at the divided Democrats).

And the $500,000 follow up: How nervous should we be that (admittedly pretty meaningless) early national polls are showing even Obama within the margin of error when pitted against McCain? (And how can that be? Democrats should win with historic landslides in a recession year and in the wake of the most disastrous administration in modern history, by any reasonable standard, on the Republican side).

1 comment:

  1. Hi, David.

    If Obama has a 'clear majority', I think anyone would step aside. The problem is that 'clear majority' is being defined by the Obama campaign, as is their wont, in a somewhat disingenuous fashion. If they're up 1500 to 1400, say, is that a clear majority? It isn't to me. 1700 to 1200 is. 1600 to 1300, I would think so.

    What galls me about Obama is not Obama, but the bizarre belief by a number of his followers that he's 'above' politics as usual and represents 'real change'. While all the while, the campaign and the man himself conduct themselves like nearly every other politician I've ever seen. Already calling for Clinton to drop out is part of that, predefining 'clear majority' is part of that, calling Clinton vulnerable to Repub attacks is part of that--and wildly disingenuous, a word that applies to his campaign a lot. Obama's staff not only would, but they are doing pretty much anything to get nominated, while they hold their hankies and criticize Clinton for doing it. It's a riot.

    As for the national polls, McCain is going to be a formidable candidate, don't think he won't. Unfortunately, his perceived strength (national security) is Obama's perceived weakness...well, one among many. McCain has his weaknesses, too, quite obviously, but the media have been in love with him for a lot longer than they have Obama. He's a 'maverick'! (cough cough) He's a 'centrist'! (hack, hack) He stands against torture! (oh, how low the bar has fallen...)

    When the real fight begins, I think we'll see McCain fall behind, but that depends on what happens in the world. Terror attack here or in Western Europe? Help us, St. McCain! Iraq failures jump back into the news? Get us out, Mr. or Ms. Democrat! The economy falls into a pit? Ahh! Elect all the Democrats!

    A lot can happen. Both in the Democratic race and the general one. I'm watching it unfold with interest. And also knowing that none of the three candidates will even try to get this country back on track. Edwards was our final hope there.


    John M.


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