22 May 2018

"What the Hell are They Thinking?" Dept.

Let's take it as a given that Bolton is simply a lunatic, whose rationality is worse than dubious. But Pompeo, albeit a Tea Party ideologue, at least seems, or seemed, to have at least some pragmatic political savvy. It is very hard to understand what he can possibly think will inure to his advantage if he manages to help Bolton drag us into a war with Iran. ANY rational person with even a modicum of knowledge of recent Middle East history and the status of the US in the geopolitical arena at present would be able to see that while that might be a good bluff, it can't possibly be a practical foreign policy. Indeed, all foreseeable outcomes would be strongly negative for US interests. As for Trump, I think nearly everyone now recognizes that he has no strong beliefs at all, only kneejerk responses and ingrained reactions. But he has shown time and again that he will jettison almost any course of action if he perceives that it's a threat to him, either politically or financially. And at some point even he's going to see that a massive, tremendously expensive, economically catastrophic war will be tremendously unpopular with most of the American population, and will be very, very bad for him and his political future. (Notwithstanding the distraction from the probes into his corruption and influence peddling, and even though it will have to overcome the usual "war fever" effect). I think it's more than obvious that one of the very last things most Americans want right now is a massive and very costly war.



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