Tax Credits and EVs not assembled in North America

I already own a Kia Niro EV and a Kia Niro PHEV (plug in hybrid), so this doesn't affect me directly, but the Korean manufacturers are big losers in the new tax credit regime. Their vehicles are assembled in Korea, so after the first of next year, they will not qualify. This includes the popular new Kia EV6 and the Hyundai Ioniq 5. Both Kia and Hyundai have major plans to convert to almost all EVs more quickly than most manufacturers, so having a big dent taken out of North American sales will affect them very negatively. I would imagine that Hyundai Group will be considering opening an assembly plant somewhere in the Western US, because they already have a big market share here, but this is no doubt a big blow to their plans. Toyota will have to manufacture its late-to-the-party EVs here too to qualify, and as I understand it their initial products were to be built in Japan, so that's an issue for them as well. Not sure about Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler (or Stellantis, which is also late to the party), but if any of them want to build or maintain a big share of the US market, they're going to have to deal with this. Same with Nissan. Mazda has produced probably the worst EV on the market, which they can barely give away, so they won't really be a player until they produce a much better product anyway. 

The main charge against the Failed Former President

I doubt I'm in that small of a minority in thinking that, bad as it is, and as worthy of prosecution under all reasonable precedents and interpretations of the statutes, the Mar a Lago classified document case is far less serious and damaging to our democracy than the failed former president's suborning of sedition and insurrection. Which the evidence put before the public by the Jan. 6 committee quite thoroughly established to be a very strong case for criminal prosecution (as well as various structural reforms which are the committee's main concern). Not that it's one or the other. But we should not lose sight of the fact that this lunatic grifter felon tried very seriously to undermine an election and forestall the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in the history of this country, including deliberately inciting insurrection and violence. And he came perilously close to succeeding, despite a certain keystone kops amateurism on the part of his accomplices. This is the main charge against him. And we should assume that the DOJ has even more evidence than the committee did from which to pursue a prosecution. I can only hope that the various distractions and (in my view misguided) "prudential" considerations don't derail this necessary process to hold the most dangerous and criminal president in American history accountable in ways that are unprecedented precisely and only because the crimes he committed are so very unprecedented and extreme. 

William MacAskill: What We Owe the Future (highly recommended)

Reading What We Owe the Future by practical moral philosopher William MacAskill. Only read the first couple of chapters, but already I can safely say: I cannot recommend this book highly enough. The premise is that the lives of future human beings (I would add "and their sentient successors") are worthy of significant consideration. And, thing is, there are two really important corollaries: 1. We are at a juncture in history where what we do will affect the longest-term potential of humanity more than at any other time in the future, and most of the past. 2. The future of humanity is, potentially, almost inconceivably greater in all measures (population, space, time, lifetime, scope of movement and capacity of thought).... than its past or present. If you realize that these points are all irrefutably true, you can't escape the conclusion that we owe a pretty damn significant duty not to blow it for them, and, we are blowing it. Bad. But it's not all doom and gloom. Actually, the "practical" part is why I admire this guy's writing and ideas more than a lot of other people who write about the future. 

 

Recent encouraging electoral development

Perhaps the most encouraging trend indicator in recent weeks is the poll numbers showing that the biggest segment in a question about the most important issue to voters (21%) selected "threats to our democracy." I suppose there are a few mental defectives among Trump true believers who somehow think Democrats are the threat, but my guess is that essentially all of those who think this is the biggest issue perceive the threat as coming from the Trump Cult essentially exclusively. This fear, which people see in voter suppression and manipulation of electoral politics to deny voting rights to as many people as possible, ties in with the increasingly penetrating perception that the Trump Republican party is bound and determined to reduce rights, especially reproductive rights, and do nothing about gun violence. These are all issues on which the Democratic party clearly comes down on the side of the views of a significant majority of the electorate, while the Trump Republican party is completely out of step. Personality, and cult leader status, is enormously powerful, but ultimately, core issues matter, too, and I think it's becoming increasingly clear that a lot of people who voted for Trump but who are not cult followers have had about enough, and are starting to realize that the Republicans offer them nothing but chaos and more narcissistic flailing around by their increasingly mentally unstable leader. There is a tipping point to these things, and I think we may have just passed it. 

 

Missed my chance

Like many of us horrified by the direction the US has taken, I have toyed with the idea that we might need to take refuge somewhere. My aunt always told me that as the grandchild of a natural born Swiss, I could acquire citizenship without having to go through the usual naturalization process. Come to find out I missed my chance. That was true, but they changed the law in 2017 so it only applies to the first generation. Oh well, can't afford to live in Switzerland anyway. But I would probably have been one of the most distant-in-time applicants, as my grandfather, Richard, whom I don't remember at all (he died in 1958), was born in 1889 in the small town of Kriens, near Luzern. (His father, Jost, emigrated to the US in 1892; he was born in 1849. My ancestors all tended to marry late and have few children, on both sides).  

Technological Paradigm shifts underway right now

There are often brief periods of time in the history of technology during which major paradigm shifts occur. Such as the switch from wind to oil for ship propulsion, the adoption of steam power earlier than that and internal combustion after, the sudden introduction of power generation, radio, telephony, television... many others. I think we may be in the midst of several interrelated and enormous paradigm shifts right now:  1) the rapid changeover to electric propulsion for cars, buses, trucks; 2) the development of all new batteries like the promising graphene/aluminum battery being developed in Australia that if its lab performance pans out will mean low-pollution batteries made from abundant materials (rather than rare strategic metals) that charge 70% faster and hold 3x as much energy as current batteries; and 3) new reactor and battery technology that will transform our power grids to make virtually all power and energy usage ultimately electric; some from wind and solar, some from hydro (including more advanced hydro that doesn't require new dams), and some from new, advanced nuclear technology that produces minimal waste with much shorter storage times. These changes could essentially resolve our climate goals and provide abundant clean energy. 

The last thirty years have been mostly an era of rapid change in information technology, but it looks like more basic energy production and storage technology is now undergoing rather sudden and transformative change... and if so, just in time. 

Our #1 technological, environmental and economic problem: upgrading the electric grid ASAP

Years ago my uncle and his wife, who were then acting as consultants to industry and academia doing research on critical issues involving technology and economic impacts, did a study regarding the future of electric vehicles in California. This was in the 90s, and it was not at all clear that technologies that led to GM's EV1 would ever yield a practical electric car. As a non-scientist but the son of an engineer and a reasonably scientifically literate person, I was skeptical of their optimistic conclusions. The rubric oft repeated at the time, that there was no way that a multi-step energy conversion: power plant > grid > converter > inverter > battery > electric motor would end up being practical, or, more importantly, more efficient than directly burning a high-energy fuel in the car's ICE (internal combustion engine). After all, then, and for the most part, still, the electricity was generated from fossil fuels in the first place. There would be little or no climate impact. 

But I was wrong. Even then. The problem then was batteries, and range, but the overall process is so much more efficient than burning highly refined gasoline that a policy of incentives and mandates to move us more quickly to replace our ICE fleet with other forms of transport with EVs playing a central role was fully justifiable even then. Since then, with the invention of practical modular Li-ion batteries and other promising technologies, EVs have become not only quite practical, but their many advantages are winning them more and more converts. (I love my EV, even more than my plug-in hybrid, which I only bought because the charging network remains inadequate). 

So, where are we now? Sadly, not in a real good place. EVs are wonderful. They are simply superior in every way to ICE vehicles, and with reductions in battery costs, they are already cheaper to operate over the life of the vehicle. And vehicles with actually greater range than comparable ICE vehicles are just about to start appearing on the market. So, what's the issue? 

The problem, of course, is the grid. We simply do not have the capacity in this country to quickly ramp up near total conversion to electric cars, trucks and buses. We could have, had we listened to forward thinking people like my uncle and his wife. But we haven't. So now we have all these political problems but we also have a huge challenge to build out something on the order of 50% more electrical capacity in this country just as quickly as is humanly possible, since we have so much dithering around to make up for. Of course it's not just transportation. We have to stop using natural gas to heat and cool interior spaces, and essentially convert all energy usage to electricity. Even aircraft, for which there may be other solutions, will have to fly using fuel made from air and biomass... an easy chemical trick, but it requires massive amounts of power. Same with the water crisis. The earth is 70% covered with water. The problem is that the natural processes to create fresh water are insufficient in the face of climate change. But we can make fresh water from seawater or other less pristine water sources, the key, again is massive amounts of power. 

I also used to oppose nuclear power, for pretty good reasons; the cost and safety were just not that great (actually especially the cost; nuclear reactor technology has improved so that if there were new plants, especially fail safe liquid fluoride thorium or even uranium low-pressure reactors, they could be made modular, factory-buildable and safer than coal or even wind). But we now have to pull out all the stops. A massive TVA like program to build more clean power, hydro, wind, solar, and nuclear, everywhere, on a crash equivalent-of-war mobilization basis. It is the only way to achieve net zero carbon in time for best projections on climate change without making drastic and unacceptable cuts in energy consumption. 

Donald Trump and his BS are not what's important. This is what's important... and our political leaders need to get this through their heads and start pushing for this now. 

Accountability is truly essential at this point

Look, I'm not a "National Security" fetishist. Far from it. But, seriously. Does anyone believe for a single second that if anyone not commanding the fearmongering among politicos throughout the land that Donald Trump does was caught with 300 f*ing classified documents, some highest secret, in his golf club apartments, even after several attempts to negotiate an offramp, would not face having the book thrown at him and several years in prison? Really. Imagine if it had been Obama (never would happen, but just hypothetically). Or even someone like W.? Only a demagogue whom the authorities actually fear could ever get away with this, not to mention the several other dead-to-rights felonies this menace committed. I am continually reminded of O.J., who had the same kind of mentality:  What I do isn't wrong, so I didn't do that... it's you... you're making it up to persecute me. 

I'll just put it starkly: if we don't hold this guy accountable, the precedent for fraud and insurrection being successful strategies will be established, and, probably sooner but certainly later, our democracy will fail completely as a direct result. I really don't think there's any room for debate on this point. I wish we could just set this aside and get on with dealing with the very real and serious environmental, economic, and technological problems our country faces, but we can't just sweep it under the rug. There must be a reckoning. 

I just ordered an Aptera super efficient EV for delivery in a few years.

I just put $100 down (refundable) on this new electric car from Carlsbad, CA. They expect to begin producing them at a rate of about 80 cars a day starting in 2023. They already have about 27,000 pre-orders, so do the math. Won't be available for a while. It's in "gamma prototype" stage right now. Here are features (variable, these are what I selected). Total price $30,400.  (Eligible for some govt. rebate, although it only has 3 wheels so it's considered a motorcycle). 400 mile range. 40 mile daily charge from sunlight (weather varies, but even in rain you get some). So for ordinary city driving, no charging needed. Seats 2. Has enough capacity for short trips luggage, groceries, etc. Gets the equivalent of about 450 mpg, but since a lot of the driving is solar charged, it's actually even more. Extremely aerodynamic, quite fast, comfortable and eye catching, to say the least. I figure, what the hell, $100 is a small risk, and if they don't go completely belly up (possible of course) and I decide not to go through with it, I can get it refunded. 

 

What about the House?

The Punditariat seems to agree that the Democrats are now likely to retain the Senate, and even gain seats. But what about the House? I want to know where the inflection points, which seats are winnable, what is the best way to help ensure we retain the House? Any suggestions most welcome. 

Lying Liars of the Out Nout Fascists on the IRS

Dare we hope that people like Joe Scarborough are right that spineless creeps like Kevin McCarthy telling their lunatic followers that "an army 87,000 Biden IRS agents" are coming for middle class voters "with AR-15s" to "hunt down and kill middle class tax payers" are going several steps too far. Scaring people actually usually isn't a good way to win elections. And even people who suffer from Trumpism (a mental illness that should go into the DSM-V) are unlikely to believe this excrement. 

I hope needless to point out to anyone, the recent reconciliation provisions with regard to the IRS do no more, and actually slightly less, than restore funding to 2011 levels, which will allow somewhere around that number of employees, almost none of them actual agents, to be replaced after retirement and other departures. Job slots which Republican-passed drastic cuts had caused to be left vacant. That and a little more money for physical costs of operation are the "army" the Lying Liars of the Out Nout Fascist Party are misrepresenting to the American People. Since in fact, estimates are that many billions of dollars of revenue are left uncollected due to grossly inadequate IRS staffing, which would return something like $20 for every $1 spent, these provisions are, in fact and obviously, long overdue. 

Some of us have had just about enough of these lies. 

 

Molten fluoride thorium reactors as a component of the "solution"

 You may or may not find this guy annoying, but the content of this video is pretty interesting. The history of the AEC refusing to build safer Thorium reactors is all but incomprehensible. Other sources indicate that Thorium will not likely be more than a small segment of the carbon neutral energy picture to emerge, but we need EVERY option in order to get through this time until we have the technology to produce energy from fusion or other more advanced technologies at some point in the future. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMuxjHLLk0E

Can support for deeply unpopular policy ideas sink the GOP?

It seems the policies of the Republicans are hugely out of step with the majority of Americans in yet another major respect. Almost all of them nowadays talk openly of essentially ending Social Security. If that isn't enough to take the blinders off a good number of voters' eyes, I honestly can't think what would be. I am truly fearful that the rush to full-on fascism may be unstoppable. But deeply unpopular changes in laws that negatively affect almost everyones' lives could be what does it. 

Once again, though, Democratic messaging needs to be greatly improved. They talk about "removing it from mandatory spending" and "Congress reauthorizing spending." But what they mean is first deep cuts, then elimination through phony privatization. There is a close parallel. The Pinochet government in the 1970s in Chile did exactly that to Chile's social security system. We all remember when George W Bush tried this, and it was one of the things (in addition to an increasingly unpopular foreign war) that sunk his presidency and allowed Democrats to regain legislative power. The situation today is different, but not entirely so. 

Democratic Messaging and not getting caught up in Republican talking points

 I think this analysis by Josh Marshall is probably right on. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/into-the-storm-4 

All the bloviating about the raid, the likely crimes involved, whether Trump will be prosecuted, etc. is going to have minimal effect on the 2022 midterms and 2024 presidential election. Virtually no one who opposed or was just a little sick of Trump before the search warrant will change their mind, and the same goes for Trump's hard core supporters and party cult followers, who will find some way to rationalize "it's all OK." In fact, to the extent there was any significant effect from the week's events, it was to take away attention from the signal achievement of the Democrats legislatively, the "rump Build Back Better" bill, which they're calling the "Inflation Reduction Act." But that will have some legs. Democrats need to really up their messaging game, but now, at least, they have something really substantial to point to that will directly benefit millions of potential Independents and wobbly Democrats to vote Democratic in November and in '24. And, here's the point: the Republicans don't. They voted 100% against this bill and are obstructing absolutely everything that would benefit ordinary people. Democrats can point to a near total record of obstruction and elitism on their side. Our message with regard to Trump should be derision and dismissal... point out that he did nothing for his supporters and now all he cares about is keeping his sorry ass out of jail and collecting hundreds of millions in contributions that seem to always somehow end up in his pockets. Trump the Grifter and the Party of Doing Nothing for Anyone but the Superrich. That should be the message. Don't be fooled! They want you to believe the people who protected America from election fraud are the threat, but they are lying, just the way they are lying about what they will do for ordinary people. Which is nothing. Only Democrats have voted for legislation that actually helps the economy and brings real benefit to ordinary people. If we can stick to this message, we will win. 

Rubisco and Climate Change

Serious question, to which I have no idea of the answer. 

Thanks mostly to the extremely ancient enzyme Ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase (rubisco), plants convert atmospheric CO2 and water to organic molecules and oxygen, but not particularly efficiently. There is already serious research into modifying rubisco to create an artificial enzyme that does this much more efficiently, potentially purely chemically. (I.e., in a manufacturing plant rather than a plant-plant). Could this technology actually work to pull CO2 out of the atmosphere on a huge scale and be a significant part of the solution to global climate change? 

Intel

Possibly not the most thrilling video, but it's important. Intel is a major employer in Oregon and its health as a competitive chip builder is of crucial importance to the US economy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtSSoZW19vs&list=TLPQMTMwODIwMjJB_bALNH5Q9A&index=3

The state of Trump accountability and why it matters

 I think we have to acknowledge that although there is a very important and strong principle that no one is above the law, it is also true that there is automatically a suspicion when a former leader is prosecuted that politics is involved. Because, especially in most countries where the separation of the judicial/law enforcement aspects of government from the political apparatus is not very strong, this actually is usually the case. We have a special set of circumstances here, though. There is strong, not merely credible, but strong evidence that the former president engaged in a multi-pronged conspiracy to stay in power notwithstanding having lost the election by a significant margin. This is sedition, and attempting to rally crowds to violently storm the Capitol is insurrection. By any reasonable definition. The documents illegally removed to Mar a Lago is more of a sideshow. But as some wag said, don't mess with archivists if you know what's good for you. The thing about this set of facts is that it's pretty cut and dried. It's illegal to remove any documents and the Presidential Records Act requires retention of everything. But it's much worse than that. There is credible (even, reportedly, overwhelming) evidence that among the documents retained arrogantly even after Trump was told he shouldn't have them and couldn't keep them were high level classified documents. Documents whose very existence is classified. Whether they are truly important to national security is not easily knowable but, legally, it doesn't matter. This is a clear cut crime, one that others in the past have been harshly punished for (Sandy Berger, as a recent example). It could well turn out that, like Al Capone and tax evasion, everyone knows that Trump was guilty of a serious attempt to undermine the continuity of democratic government, the most serious imaginable crime for a leader of a democratic country short of outright seizure of power and mass executions. But it may be the more technical crime he was too arrogant not to be careful about that he is held accountable for. (That, and his civil troubles, which it's still possible could result in state criminal charges in New York. And don't forget the Georgia case Fani Willis is pursuing... that, too, may be so clearly established by hard evidence that he cannot skate). The verdict of history is clear, but it seems to me, finally, that there may be some actual judicial verdicts in Trump's future. He still has a core of fanatic followers, far from a majority, but if events can be so managed that he has no chance to put his "electoral coup" Version 2.0 into operation in 2024, I think we can probably escape the worst and eventually well and truly arrive at a post Trump era with the basic institutions of our government intact. 

I know some folks will insist, oh, it wasn't really that bad. It was a riot. It was Keystone Kops with no chance to succeed. They would all do it if they could, etc. etc. But it's just not true. 2020 was unique in our history of transfer of power through elections. No president in our past has actually tried to completely subvert an election and stay in power despite having lost (1876 was closer  to 2000 than 2020, and not really analogous). It is the kind of thing that if it were successful once, the continuity of the existence of our constitutional democracy would be at an end. And at that point, who knows? The climate of philosophy and political thought that allowed the American Revolution to take place in the late 18th century is long gone. I am not at all sure that anything even vaguely resembling a real, functioning republic would ever arise again in this land if once it were well and truly ended. 

Hope springs eternal. 

I support Democrat Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington 3

I am laser focused on House races this year, since I regard retaining the House, uphill as it supposedly is, as crucial. Nearby, on the other side of the Columbia River from Portland, is Washington 3, where a somewhat less extreme Republican, Herrera Beutler, who actually voted to impeach Trump the second time, has been defeated in the Repug. primary by an out and out Big Lie Trumpist, Joe Kent. I deem this to be a winnable seat, so I just contributed $50 to the Democratic Candidate, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. 

Please join me in supporting Marie Gluesenkamp Perez via @actblue https://secure.actblue.com/donate/mgp We simply must defeat enough Trump cult followers to retain the House in November!

McLeod Skinner for Congress ---Oregon 5th District

I'm contributing $50 to the campaign of the candidate to replace Blue Dog Kurt Schrader as the Democratic representative of my congressional district in Oregon  (OR-5), Jamie McLeod Skinner. 

Jamie McLeod-Skinner is a true Democrat who will fight for us in Congress and help Democrats retain the House. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jms-fr-2208

 

DOJ and the Fake Electors Schemes

It doth appear from reports that the DOJ is taking a real interest in the Fake Electors Scheme, especially in Pennsylvania. I regard this as second only in seriousness to the actual coordination of a physical attack on the Capitol, which came fairly close to actual violence against elected officials, with the coordination and encouragement of their cult leader. People like to make light of and laugh at these attempts, but they were serious, and they actually might have worked if things had been just a bit closer in some states so that it was a little more plausible. You have to realize that even now most Republicans think just denying the outcome of an election and substituting right wing electors is just fine... power politics, we would do it too if we could (which just is not true; look at Al Gore in 2000 for contrast). I honestly believe everyone directly involved in the Fake Electors scheme is guilty of sedition and should rot in jail. Franklin said a Republic if we can keep it. Well, the only way to keep it is to respond decisively to insurrection and sedition... by which I mean the willful refusal by a political faction to accept the outcome of lawful elections and willingness to commit crimes to install a non-elected leadership in power. This is how fascism usually gets started; the classic paradigm being the election of Hitler as a minority chancellor in 1933, once in power, they never let go of it, simply dispensing with inconvenient little bureaucratic niceties like elections.