16 April 2016

Ongoing discussion of Bernie vs. Hillary

In an ongoing conversation with a Hillary Clinton supporter correspondent, I recently sent the following: 
I understand why people support Clinton. I will vote for her if she is the nominee, as I've always said and as Bernie has always said, and still says.

But when you say ...

the vast majority of opinion indicates Clinton is better prepared to be president.

...That's Just not true. We're entitled to our opinions but not our own facts. The majority of democratic politicians believe that, and the majority of the talking head class will say this, too. But actual data shows that support for Clinton has declined to where it's close, but nationally, Sanders has higher approval rating among Democrats and is actually ahead in head to head matchups.

And when you say

If it's Trump vs Clinton it will be like LBJ and Goldwater in 1964.   ...

That's true, but it's even more true that it's Sanders who does better against Trump, and all Republicans, than she does. In fact Kasich [who will not be nominated] beats her in national polls, but Sanders beats Kasich.

This won't determine the nomination, but as rationale for supporting Clinton you cite prepositions that are actually contrary to available evidence.

And there's no reason to believe the Senate is more likely to go Democratic with her than him. I happen to believe the enthusiasm and turnout factors suggest just the opposite.

Fortunately, whoever wins the nomination, and it will of course most likely be Clinton, will win the general, the way things look right now.


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