29 January 2022

Maybe we should WANT Trump to run in 2024

My read, partly gut feeling and partly tea leaves, is that our big D Democratic chances of holding the White House in 2024 (setting aside the more urgent matter of keeping both houses in 2022, which will be harder), is that the malignant narcissist Orange One runs again. This is a little counterintuitive, but I'm hardly alone in this view. I sense, and read of signs, that while Trump has a solid, almost unshakeable base of maybe 30% of likely voters, distributed with respect to the electoral college pretty favorably to him, that's nowhere near enough to win. And, among a significant measure of Independents and even a pretty large number of Republicans, he has become almost a pariah. Someone they wish would just go away. Such people are not generally electable. Of course Democrats have to get their act together, and re-electing a somewhat lackluster president who will be by a good measure the oldest person ever sworn in (again) in 2025, will take some very powerful positive campaigning and not just a little luck in terms of political currents, the economy, and the state of the world come that time. 

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