07 January 2022

The threat of Trump and Trumpism

I've seen quite a few comments in the media to the effect that there's a very good chance Trump will not only run but win in 2024. I just want to say these are perhaps useful as clarion calls, but as meaningful predictions they are completely worthless. Much can, and will, happen in the more than 2½ years to the next presidential election. Intuition and gut feeling are as likely to be accurate as any read of Biden's popularity vs. Trump's at this stage. And here is my gut feeling: Trump has dismayed enough people, above and beyond his inability to even come close in the popular vote in 2020, that if he runs he will lose, and by such a margin that it will be just plain impossible to pull off a cheat-to-win gambit. In the end, people want stability, and more people than ever see Trump as a disruptor; a threat to stability rather than as a savior. Maybe I'm just overly optimistic, but this is how I see it. In the meantime, however, the very real threat of utter gridlock from losing one or both houses this year, and the continuing crippling polarization of our people, remain a crisis of serious proportions. Indeed, the American constitutional crisis over the next 2-3 years probably properly rates as one of the greatest risks to global stability in a good long while. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Gyromantic Informicon. Comments are not moderated. If you encounter a problem, please go to home page and follow directions to send me an e-mail.