I don't give Allan Lichtman's "system" 100% credibility, but there is logic to it. And according to this model, Biden, as incumbent and presumptive (rather than contested) nominee, has two "keys" out of 13 that any other Democrat would not have. Lichtman's model will very probably predict a Biden victory, and the way things look right now, this does indeed seem likely. (Some of the "keys" are not fully determined yet).
We should not be complacent, but we should also not exaggerate the threat to democracy that Trump represents.
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