Interview with Sarah Paine

I might've shared this interview with Sarah Paine already, but I just watched it again (was kinda sleepy the first time) and man, do we need her insights into why we gotta change course big time in the US. I love her definition of "winning" on the international stage: both sides' grandchildren are better off. So if you didn't see it already, I highly recommend: 
 https://youtu.be/L1tQrW8EMDY?list=TLPQMzAwOTIwMjYEAn0hUQJPoA

It's long past time to 

IMPEACH, CONVICT AND REMOVE

the madman Trump.

Tranfromation and democratization of the American system post Trump: the vote of no confidence

It's become almost a truism that after the two Trump terms (and some other issues involving other presidents as well), our system is beyond needing "repair." It needs to be transformed. This may not be immediately achievable, but a series of Constitutional amendments need to be brought to bear. Here's my idea to make our system more like parliamentary systems in one key respect: the power of the Article I branch to vote no confidence and call an election. This might be adopted alongside some form of proportional reprsentation and direct election of nationwide offices. Keep four year presidential terms as a default (or maybe change to five years, with no more than one second full term). But after 180 days since the last election, at any time, and without the signature of the president, a simple majority of both houses can call a general election, which would include the president and any other national offices (vice president and any added by other reforms), and all seats in the House. Senatorial elections, in conjunction with other reforms to democratize the Senate, would be unaffected and would continue on a regular cycle of electing one third of the Senate every two years for six year terms. The elections thus called would take place on the weekend after 10 weeks from the vote of no confidence (in conjunction with all national elections being on weekends). Default House terms could be changed to every three years, if no election has been called in the interim. Elections could occur in any month, but default elections would continue to be held in November, and so might be early by as much as several months for the House if a special general election has taken place. This sounds unduly compicated, but the goal would be to have meaningful special elections but keep the complication to a minimum when they do not get called. 

I believe that combined with a dozen or so other essential reforms, this, or something essentially similar, would go a long way towards democratizing our system. 

It's long past time to 

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the madman Trump.

Re: Our current dilemma

Aye, EH!

On Tue, Sep 22, 2026 at 7:56 AM David Studhalter <oldionus@gmail.com> wrote:

Give me a nay? Give me an aye? 

AI! AI! Eh?

It's long past time to 

IMPEACH, CONVICT AND REMOVE

the madman Trump.

Our current dilemma

Give me a nay? Give me an aye? 

AI! AI! Eh?

It's long past time to 

IMPEACH, CONVICT AND REMOVE

the madman Trump.

China population

This may be a bit of a surprise. China's population is not only not keeping up, it's actually declining. In stark contrast to their former one-child policy. In the long run, I think a stable smaller population overall (for our species) will be a good thing. But any major demographic changes over short periods of time can be highly disruptive to advanced societies. In this sense, North America has a somewhat more favorable position. 

https://youtu.be/gnGI6-XPjgo?list=TLPQMTkwOTIwMja_8gKfnKGYYw 

It's long past time to 

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the madman Trump.

:Luttig and the possible attempt to cancel the election results

The New Republic:  https://trib.al/aBieeix
Judge Michael Luttig, who is uniquely qualified, tells us that it  would be hard to find even one congressional Republican with the integrity, sense of duty to country, honor, and courage to put America above the Republican Party, let alone above Donald Trump. My hope is that by making people aware of the ways in which these American traitors could attempt to block the peaceful transfer of Congressional power in January, just as they tried to do with the presidential succession in 2021, enough Americans will be wise to their scheme that it will not work and they won't even try it. That we even have to rest our hopes on such thin supports is, frankly, rather terrifying.

It's long past time to 

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the madman Trump.

Sarah Paine talks about the Second Cold War

Dr Paine is not an ideologue. And she doesn't finesse her ideas to soften their impact to people who have strong ideological beliefs. What she has to say is well worth listening to. 

https://youtu.be/hjtlOd2lbWU?list=TLPQMTcwOTIwMjavqNmD9ciJTA

It's long past time to 

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the madman Trump.

More explanation from Sarah Paine

If you liked the shorter one, watch this one. Prof. Paine is just terrific at explaining geopolitics and history in an engaging and original way. (Wish we could make her secretary of state). And Dwarkesh Patel asks really good questions (second half). I probably don't agree with everything she says, but on foreign policy and strategy, she is the real deal. 

https://youtu.be/FdkpWrlR5zg

 

Sarah Paine explains

Sarah Paine explains it all for you. I really like her. 

https://youtu.be/Y_AxpOTbI1I

It's long past time to 

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the madman Trump.

Nick Lane: Why life is the way it is.

This is really fascinating. A long lecture, but the subject matter is cutting edge and Lane really is a world class expert on the subject. Perhaps not for everyone. 

https://youtu.be/9WatgWy8Z1s?list=TLPQMTEwOTIwMjbDXoKRuXcmMQ

...................................

It's long past time to 

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the madman Trump.

Trump's promise of a $5000 bribe to vote for Repubs

I was almost literally gobsmacked by the Dear Leader's promise of an outright bribe for people to vote for his Fascist Party in the midterm election. But I'm somewhat less concerned when it became pretty clear that only the uttermost cultists of MAGA take this seriously. The reality is that Trump's credibility has already reached pretty much zero among people who aren't totally brainwashed. And that actually includes most of the people who voted for him. Almost no one believes there is any reality to this pathetic bribe attempt. 

 

Oregon protecting the right to vote

State officials here in Oregon are on top of making sure that vote by mail works. Oregon, if you don't know, is the first state to go 100% vote by mail, about 30 years ago.  

https://youtu.be/Qc8tCcM87eI

It's long past time to 

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the madman Trump.

The REALLY long view

I know I harp on this subject, but if you're not interested, just delete. My friend Rick sent this link about an idea for searching the Moon's regolith for telltale forensic evidence of alien technology. Which is not a crazy idea, but here's my take (link to the original article). 

https://www.gadgetreview.com/the-moon-could-be-hiding-something-from-an-alien-civilization-scientists-plan-to-find-answers

I regard this as an enormous long shot. Possibly worth adding to an existiung mission, especially as a large lunar regolith sample would probably have multiple research uses. But I'd rate the chances of success at close to zero. Admittedly, I have a bias. I'm convinced that once really advanced technology spreads out into the space of several star systems, it will continue to evolve, just as life on Earth has continued to evolve over billions of years... and that it eventually fills its entire galaxy and even nearby galaxies. It's an evolutionary imperative: fill the available habitat. Seems to be universally true in the evolution of life on Earth. Which fits in with the supposition that life is perhaps common, advanced (complex, multicellular) life is rare, intelligent life is extremely rare, and life that has learned to colonize space is so rare that large swaths of the universe are still virgin territory from that point of view. (This category, for now anyway, does not include Earth's civilization).

From the point of view of habitability for life, the universe is still quite young. It has been habitable to some form of life for perhaps 12 billion years, tops, but the last red dwarf stars capable of providing energy to a civilization hanging on for dear life (literally) will wink out in perhaps 3 to 4 trillion years, and even after that technology may be able to wrest living existence from the ever increasing entropy of what's left. Do the arithmetic: the universe is still in the first 0.03% of its long range period of habitability. It's still in the period where new stars are forming, although interestinghly enough (per Claude and ChatGPT both, about 95% of all stars that will ever form already have). So the universe is in one sense gradually moving into its long maturity, where stars no longer form, and in another sense has barely started it. 

It's long past time to 

IMPEACH, CONVICT AND REMOVE

the madman Trump.

Pearls tells it like it is.

Thanks to Rick M. for sending me this. 

It's long past time to 

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the madman Trump.

The War in Ukraine remains a global threat to peace and stability

Looking at these

*

*Note that Ukrainian grain exports are also effectively cut off.

... you would think you were justified in concluding that the Ukraine War has turned strongly against Russia, and on the level of Ukraine's ability to attack economic and energy otinside Russia, that is clearly true. But there is a serious danger here. When Russia's leaders feel that they cannot win a conventional war against Ukraine, their aversion to the risk of attacking NATO assets will decline, and we must also bear in mind that this picture misses the one huge advantage the Russians have, even assuming that they continue to rule out the use of tactical nuclear weapons. And that is that they have a huge stockpile of ballistic missiles, with which they are willingly targeting civilian targets in Ukraine. And the Ukrainians have no effective defense against them, since the only really effective interceptor missiles are American Patriots. And rather than sell these to Ukraine, the US regime decided to expend most of the American stockpile of these weapons asymmetrically against much cheaper drone technology in the war of choice in Iran. 

So, at the same time that Ukraine has pretty clearly acquired a significant technological edge, having essentially stopped all commerce in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea, and greatly reduced Russia's ability to sell oil on the world market, the overall situation in this war is probably more dangerous for the entire world right now than at any time since the Russian full scale invasion in 2023. 

In the US we are focused, with justification, on our domestic crisis; on saving the republic from autocracy. But the reality is that in every year since 2023 we have been closer to a global great power war than at any time since 1945. And if anything, the situation is heating up rather than drawing towards a conclusion. It is widely expected that Putin will launch a second mobilization this Fall. That would not likely change the dynamics in Donetsk, where Russia has been effectively stalled for over three years now. Just throwing more poorly trained (and frequently older) men  into the front lines is unlikely to create a major breakthrough. But this war is seen in Europe as a real threat to the entire post-Berlin Wall stability regime. Whatever one's view of Russia's position and its grievances against NATO, the fact is that the situation is more dangerous to peace and stability than it was in 1948, 1956 or 1968, and there is no end in sight. 

It's long past time to 

IMPEACH, CONVICT AND REMOVE

the madman Trump.

Talarico vs. Corruption

https://youtu.be/m0RArRK7wEA?list=TLPQMDYwOTIwMjb4MiYgzh7cHA

It's long past time to 

IMPEACH, CONVICT AND REMOVE

the madman Trump.

Senate sweep?

A few comments on the Senate races, probably not of earthshaking insight. 

On election night in November, watch Maine, NH, North Carolina, then Georgia, then Ohio, then Iowa, then Texas, as the night progresses. If Jackson wins in Maine, Pappas in NH (likely win), then Cooper (as is expected) in NC, then we already may be seeing the first signs that the Senate will in fact flip. (Markey in Mass, is expected to win, if he doesn't, that could be a bad sign of course; but if he wins, and if Andrews pulls an offset against Trump's puppet Darline Graham in neighboring SC, we'll be on an almost unstoppable roll). If Ossoff wins as expected in GA, and Brown retakes a Senate seat in Ohio (not that unlikely), then the race to take the Senate will be ours to lose. If Talarico wins, I think it's likely to be a sweep or near sweep of the states we have to win. Turek in Iowa would be a clincher, especially if we also pull off a win for El-Sayed in Michigan. (Which contrary to frankly racist naysaying, is actually fairly likely). Minnesota is an almost for sure win. So, in such a wave, Peltola can be considered likely to win in AK too, and Dems will have retaken the Senate with more than enough votes to overcome the likely defection of Fetterman. None of this is wishful thinking, but it isn't guaranteed or even really likely... we have to work to make it happen. And of course this assumes that the election will mostly take place without massive interference from the regime. Also not guaranteed. 

This may seem ho hum, business as usual if you listen to the legacy media, but I consider winning both houses to be absolutely necessary to the program of retaking then shoring up our democracy, which really is under existential threat right now. 

Please consider contributing to some of these races, especially the shakier ones. Andrews. Sherrod Brown. Troy Jackson. El-Sayed. Turek. Even Osborn in Nebraska (an Independent expected to caucus D), who has a shot.m (Even Kansas is considered "possible"). Talarico. Peltola. Even Nixon in FL is a possible, and if you're a progressive wing Democrat like me it would be great even to make a good showing there. But focusing money and any actual physical help you can give on these more competitive races may be the key to victory in some or even all of them. 

It's long past time to 

IMPEACH, CONVICT AND REMOVE

the madman Trump.