01 November 2004

Meta-analysis predicts Kerry win

Please see this Princeton Meta-analysis: predicting a Kerry win with a relatively high degree of confidence. (I picked up this link from Andrew Sullivan's web log, see Links). Note the caveats, however: for these analytical predictions to be true, the assumptions about undecided voters breaking to the challenger and voter turnout both favoring Kerry have to be accurate. Still, this is the most encouraging statistical information I've seen yet.

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