26 March 2022

Developments in the War

 I already expressed my skepticism that apparent... although unconfirmed... Russian redeployment inside Ukraine is any kind of signal that they are planning on ending the invasion, or still less that regime change is imminent. But, it isn't impossible either. Watch the next week or so. If Putin is not seen, or only seen but not heard from, that could be a sign that major, tumultuous events up to and including his being deposed, are underway. But I wouldn't hold my breath. It is certainly true that by any realistic assessment he badly miscalculated this entire war, and his forces failed to achieve their expected result. They seem to be trying to get the Ukrainians to agree...now... to a result they probably could've had in a few days if they'd just occupied the Donbas and left it at that. But this is now, that was then. There appears to be zero appetite in Ukraine to cede any territory to Russia. A war of attrition favors Russia at this stage so this could be a huge mistake for Ukraine in the long run, but the notion that this war is likely to end soon is far from certain; it may not even be likely. 

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