26 March 2022

"Signs" of Russian rethinking of objectives being taken as a sign of imminent Regime Change ... not so fast

 I suspect some commentators who are taking the rumblings leaked from Russian military sources, about refocusing on more limited war objectives, as a sign of imminent regime change in Russia, are getting ahead of their skis quite a bit. Kremlinology has always been an obscure science, and those who have tried to predict what the Russian government will do by reading tea leaves in this manner have generally been wrong. Of course we all hope for some kind of resolution, some stand-down that will ease the East/West tensions, now at their highest point perhaps ever; even the 1962 missile crisis. But I seriously doubt claims that Putin is about to be ousted based on this highly ambiguous signaling. In the west, we grasp at any sign that this incredible fiasco could be somehow short-circuited, but I'm afraid this is nothing more than wishful thinking at this point. Of course, I would love to see Putin step down or be ousted and someone more prepared to work with the international community take his place. But objectively that remains highly unlikely at this point. Other events may intercede and make this outcome more likely, but so far, I just don't see it happening. 

And, for once, I would dearly love to be proved wrong. 

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