Working Hard And Closing Strong, Putin's Many MAGA Puppies, Some Notes On The Early VoteNew Episode Of Closing Strong Is Out!/Welcome New Subscribers!
Happy Friday all. And a good Friday it is! Let's make this a big weekend for Harris-Walz and Democrats across the country. The VP is out there leaving it all out there on the playing field for us. We need to be there for her and make every day of these remaining days a good day! I start today with the campaign's enormous rally last night in Atlanta. 20,000 people, Barack, the Boss and the next President of the United States. Enjoy as much of it as you can watch. These events are inspiring, wonderful, joyous and what a winning campaign looks like:  I strongly recommend making the campaign's daily events - live, recorded or those lucky enough to see them in person - part of your information diet in the home stretch. No better way to understand what voters in the swing states are seeing. Here are the main events today, from the campaign: Vice President Harris will travel to Houston, Texas where she will give remarks on the serious consequences of Trump's abortion bans to women's lives, and will be joined by women who have faced the direct impacts of these extreme laws, as well as by Rep. Colin Allred. Vice President Harris will also record an interview with podcaster Brené Brown. Governor Walz will campaign throughout Pennsylvania, including in Philadelphia for a political stop and campaign reception before traveling to Allentown for a campaign engagement. In the evening, Governor Walz will deliver remarks at a Harris-Walz campaign rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Following the rally, Governor Walz will travel to Las Vegas, Nevada. Mrs. Walz will deliver remarks at campaign events in Green Bay and Marinette County, Wisconsin and hold an evening rally in Marquette, Michigan with actress and singer Mandy Moore. The 2024 Election - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them - Got a lot of stuff for you to read, watch and listen to this weekend:
My latest 2024 election toplines:
Here's my rough calculation of national polls released since Monday, October 14th:
I am not going to comment too much on today's NYT poll (tied 48% to 48%) as I don't like to do deep dives into any one poll, but the electorate they found is much more Republican than is likely to be the case; Trump's favs were way too high (too R again); and their youth numbers again 17 points more Republican than the most recent Harvard IOP youth poll. I want to reiterate how much of a stretch it would be for Trump to be competitive in the popular vote this year. In the last 4 Presidential elections we've averaged 51% of the vote, Rs 46.5%. A Republican has only won the popular vote once in the last 8 Presidential elections, twenty years ago. Polls showing Trump tied or ahead, or Party ID tied (as the NYT does in this poll) are way, way out there on a statistical limb. It may happen but Trump making a go of the popular vote is running up against an unbelievable amount of history, our strong performances in recent elections, his bleeding of Republican voters this year and his historic and deeply evident ugliness. Moving on….. Here is today's Washington Post battleground state polling average (more highly curated to exclude junky and right wing polls). We win this election.
OK, I am ready to start doing more granular analysis on the early vote. It has been hard to analyze the early vote this time for 1) 2020 was a COVID election, and thus not a great baseline to make comparisons 2) States have changed their voting rules, and the variance in how people vote early state to state makes comparisons a bit challenging 3) Republicans have made the early vote a priority this time (they did not in 2020 or 2022) so the early vote patterns are very different than the last two elections 4) Some of our core Democratic vote, young Dems, will be showing up in the unaffiliated column this election. 5) Wisconsin's voter file does provide enough information this year to make apples to apples comparisons to either 2020 or 2022 6) given all this we just needed more vote to come in. So, with all these caveats, here we go. Using TargetEarly's modeled party feature, we now know the national early vote has been running 5-6-7 more points more Republican than 2020. We expected this, but just didn't know how much more Republican the early vote would be. So what I am going to share now is how each of the 7 battleground states, plus NE-2, are performing against both 2020 and a new stat I've developed - performance against 2020 compared to the early vote nationally. This morning the early vote is running 6.9 points more Republican than on this day in 2020. Here is what I have for 1) compared to 2020 at this time 2) performance against the national early vote. In the aggregate of the 7 battleground states we are running just 0.6 behind 2020, and 6.3 points above the national early vote. Friends this is very good. The power of the Harris-Walz campaign and the Democratic grassroots is driving the early vote, and helping us perform before above the national baseline. This is what we would have expected to see given the superiority of our campaign. This is the 7 state battleground aggregate:
Here's how the states break down:
A few additional notes: 1) We've seen meaningful gains in AZ, GA, NC, NE-02 and NV this week. You can see the power of our campaigns/grassroots kicking in. 2) We don't know how many Rs are voting for us in any of these states, though it is likely it will be more than 2020 3) It is also likely that the unaffiliated vote is more D than last time. This means the actual vote so far is slightly more Dem than these numbers suggest, something we are seeing in polling of those who have voted so far. To sum up - in the battlegrounds we are running at 2020 levels and overperforming the national baseline. Over the past few days the vote has gotten bluer for us in the battlegrounds, as we would have expected given our campaign superiority. It is likely that the current vote is a bit more Democratic than the raw D/R/U split, which means all this is actually a little bit better than the raw data. Taken together it is now very likely that Democrats are outperforming 2020 in the battlegrounds despite the national early vote being 7 points more Republican this year; and these early vote "leads" Rs have been crowing about are evaporating. It appears they got an early boost in some of these states, something they have been unable to maintain, as our campaign superiority and all of you keep making the early vote bluer. Finally, I think we should feel good about where we are right now. We have a modest lead in the national and battleground state polls. The early vote is good and is getting better. Our more muscular and energetic campaign has a far greater capacity to keep moving that vote towards us in these final days. And perhaps most importantly, I think how this election is closing - with a focus on Trump's fitness. madness, extremism, misogny and fealty to Putin - is how we want this election to be closing. For fear and opposition to MAGA has been the most powerful force in our politics since 2018, and is now likely to be the most powerful force in this election too. Here's a new ad from the Harris campaign:  Folks as I keep saying I think we are winning this election but have not won it yet. Winning it is up to us and the work we do in the home stretch. Let's get to work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Doing More And Worrying Less/Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - Mark Hamill joined us last night for our phonebank!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And we got an incredible amount of calls done for CA-45 and Harris-Walz in North Carolina and Wisconsin. Thank you to all who came. We have one more night of calling left. Sign up today!
My one big ask today - donate to or volunteer for Harris-Walz and let's keep makign the early vote bluer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I want to thank all of you who are self-reporting in on all your remarkable work across the country. Postcards, canvassing, back yard phonebank parties - you all are doing the work we need to do to win. Thank you all. Let's get to it! Harris-Walz, Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our "checkmate" strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:
Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!
Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:
Growing The Hopium Community - We've set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:
Great work everyone. We are making good progress here. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day! Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you. Let's bring it home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Simon
© 2024 Simon Rosenberg
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25 October 2024
Fwd: Working Hard And Closing Strong, Putin's Many MAGA Puppies, Some Notes On The Early Vote
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