Just as I was getting used to the idea that it would be Pennsylvania that would be razor-close while Michigan and Wisconsin were relatively safe, Quinnipiac, which is considered a methodologically solid poll, shows Trump ahead in WI and MI, but trailing in PA! I need to take a step back and stop dwelling on polls, which historically are not a good predictor. (Indeed, they always say that, within the error margins, legitimate (i.e., not deliberately skewed, like Rasmussen and several others)... are pretty accurate at reflecting the "state of play," but they don't predict the future, with the highly volatile marginal voters, even a couple weeks out).
Anyone who knows what I know about Donald Trump would be certifiably insane to vote for him. But that's the core problem. The marginal voters in 3 to 7 states, who tend to be ill-informed, poorly educated, highly prone to racism and other prejudices, and not particularly intelligent (sorry, but this is all provably true)... don't know what most of us know about him and his sordid and nightmarish history. And they have a crazy assed view of the world and what right wing authoritarians like Trump and the other Trumpists would actually do if they gain power. So we just have to go into this not knowing the outcome and hope for the best, all the while not letting up on our efforts to do what we can to tip the outcome. If activated Democratic voters could influence on average, even 1 vote in the key marginal group in these states per 5 or so activists, we win for sure... but whether that is happening or not is almost impossible to tell.
I guess it never hurts to pray, too.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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