Working Hard And Closing Strong, Putin's Many MAGA Puppies, Some Notes On The Early VoteNew Episode Of Closing Strong Is Out!/Welcome New Subscribers!
Happy Friday all. And a good Friday it is! Let's make this a big weekend for Harris-Walz and Democrats across the country. The VP is out there leaving it all out there on the playing field for us. We need to be there for her and make every day of these remaining days a good day! I start today with the campaign's enormous rally last night in Atlanta. 20,000 people, Barack, the Boss and the next President of the United States. Enjoy as much of it as you can watch. These events are inspiring, wonderful, joyous and what a winning campaign looks like:  I strongly recommend making the campaign's daily events - live, recorded or those lucky enough to see them in person - part of your information diet in the home stretch. No better way to understand what voters in the swing states are seeing. Here are the main events today, from the campaign: Vice President Harris will travel to Houston, Texas where she will give remarks on the serious consequences of Trump's abortion bans to women's lives, and will be joined by women who have faced the direct impacts of these extreme laws, as well as by Rep. Colin Allred. Vice President Harris will also record an interview with podcaster Brené Brown. Governor Walz will campaign throughout Pennsylvania, including in Philadelphia for a political stop and campaign reception before traveling to Allentown for a campaign engagement. In the evening, Governor Walz will deliver remarks at a Harris-Walz campaign rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania. Following the rally, Governor Walz will travel to Las Vegas, Nevada. Mrs. Walz will deliver remarks at campaign events in Green Bay and Marinette County, Wisconsin and hold an evening rally in Marquette, Michigan with actress and singer Mandy Moore. The 2024 Election - I Would Much Rather Be Us Than Them - Got a lot of stuff for you to read, watch and listen to this weekend:
My latest 2024 election toplines:
Here's my rough calculation of national polls released since Monday, October 14th:
I am not going to comment too much on today's NYT poll (tied 48% to 48%) as I don't like to do deep dives into any one poll, but the electorate they found is much more Republican than is likely to be the case; Trump's favs were way too high (too R again); and their youth numbers again 17 points more Republican than the most recent Harvard IOP youth poll. I want to reiterate how much of a stretch it would be for Trump to be competitive in the popular vote this year. In the last 4 Presidential elections we've averaged 51% of the vote, Rs 46.5%. A Republican has only won the popular vote once in the last 8 Presidential elections, twenty years ago. Polls showing Trump tied or ahead, or Party ID tied (as the NYT does in this poll) are way, way out there on a statistical limb. It may happen but Trump making a go of the popular vote is running up against an unbelievable amount of history, our strong performances in recent elections, his bleeding of Republican voters this year and his historic and deeply evident ugliness. Moving on….. Here is today's Washington Post battleground state polling average (more highly curated to exclude junky and right wing polls). We win this election.
OK, I am ready to start doing more granular analysis on the early vote. It has been hard to analyze the early vote this time for 1) 2020 was a COVID election, and thus not a great baseline to make comparisons 2) States have changed their voting rules, and the variance in how people vote early state to state makes comparisons a bit challenging 3) Republicans have made the early vote a priority this time (they did not in 2020 or 2022) so the early vote patterns are very different than the last two elections 4) Some of our core Democratic vote, young Dems, will be showing up in the unaffiliated column this election. 5) Wisconsin's voter file does provide enough information this year to make apples to apples comparisons to either 2020 or 2022 6) given all this we just needed more vote to come in. So, with all these caveats, here we go. Using TargetEarly's modeled party feature, we now know the national early vote has been running 5-6-7 more points more Republican than 2020. We expected this, but just didn't know how much more Republican the early vote would be. So what I am going to share now is how each of the 7 battleground states, plus NE-2, are performing against both 2020 and a new stat I've developed - performance against 2020 compared to the early vote nationally. This morning the early vote is running 6.9 points more Republican than on this day in 2020. Here is what I have for 1) compared to 2020 at this time 2) performance against the national early vote. In the aggregate of the 7 battleground states we are running just 0.6 behind 2020, and 6.3 points above the national early vote. Friends this is very good. The power of the Harris-Walz campaign and the Democratic grassroots is driving the early vote, and helping us perform before above the national baseline. This is what we would have expected to see given the superiority of our campaign. This is the 7 state battleground aggregate:
Here's how the states break down:
A few additional notes: 1) We've seen meaningful gains in AZ, GA, NC, NE-02 and NV this week. You can see the power of our campaigns/grassroots kicking in. 2) We don't know how many Rs are voting for us in any of these states, though it is likely it will be more than 2020 3) It is also likely that the unaffiliated vote is more D than last time. This means the actual vote so far is slightly more Dem than these numbers suggest, something we are seeing in polling of those who have voted so far. To sum up - in the battlegrounds we are running at 2020 levels and overperforming the national baseline. Over the past few days the vote has gotten bluer for us in the battlegrounds, as we would have expected given our campaign superiority. It is likely that the current vote is a bit more Democratic than the raw D/R/U split, which means all this is actually a little bit better than the raw data. Taken together it is now very likely that Democrats are outperforming 2020 in the battlegrounds despite the national early vote being 7 points more Republican this year; and these early vote "leads" Rs have been crowing about are evaporating. It appears they got an early boost in some of these states, something they have been unable to maintain, as our campaign superiority and all of you keep making the early vote bluer. Finally, I think we should feel good about where we are right now. We have a modest lead in the national and battleground state polls. The early vote is good and is getting better. Our more muscular and energetic campaign has a far greater capacity to keep moving that vote towards us in these final days. And perhaps most importantly, I think how this election is closing - with a focus on Trump's fitness. madness, extremism, misogny and fealty to Putin - is how we want this election to be closing. For fear and opposition to MAGA has been the most powerful force in our politics since 2018, and is now likely to be the most powerful force in this election too. Here's a new ad from the Harris campaign:  Folks as I keep saying I think we are winning this election but have not won it yet. Winning it is up to us and the work we do in the home stretch. Let's get to work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Doing More And Worrying Less/Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - Mark Hamill joined us last night for our phonebank!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And we got an incredible amount of calls done for CA-45 and Harris-Walz in North Carolina and Wisconsin. Thank you to all who came. We have one more night of calling left. Sign up today!
My one big ask today - donate to or volunteer for Harris-Walz and let's keep makign the early vote bluer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I want to thank all of you who are self-reporting in on all your remarkable work across the country. Postcards, canvassing, back yard phonebank parties - you all are doing the work we need to do to win. Thank you all. Let's get to it! Harris-Walz, Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our "checkmate" strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:
Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!
Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:
Growing The Hopium Community - We've set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:
Great work everyone. We are making good progress here. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day! Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you. Let's bring it home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Simon
© 2024 Simon Rosenberg
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25 October 2024
Fwd: Working Hard And Closing Strong, Putin's Many MAGA Puppies, Some Notes On The Early Vote
Sharing Simon Rosenberg's latest.
Keeping up to victory
I don't want to be a "fade out" at the end, but I've already contributed about ten times as much as in any previous election to help Democrats win. So I'm ignoring fundraising e mails, for the most part, at this point. I did a lot of it early, assured by the various knowitalls (said with a smile) that early money is much more effective; in the latest stages of a campaign it's already too late to make effective use of a lot of the money that comes in at the end. And Harris/Walz has tons of money. What they (and we) need is to not let up on communication, determination, GOTV, door knocking, etc. I'm not as good at that sort of thing as lots of people, but I'm doing my best. We all wish Kamala had run away with it, but MAGA... a genuine homegrown fascist movement, is strong. The race is close, although the edge is hers. But here's the thing (Kamala's catchphrase); MAGA is not getting stronger. Their candidate is noticeably deteriorating and sounds more and more like your old uncle you're worried about doing something nutty like driving the car into the pool or farting at the dinner table. And his sycophants are whiney little incels (not all of them, but this is the impression you get). We are strong. We are sensible people, of all kinds and stripes; people who believe in democracy and fairness. And our coalition includes people like Liz Cheney and Judge Luttig and Generals Milley and Kelly.... people who are not by any stretch liberal but who believe in the essential worth of the American experiment.
It is so obvious. If you believe people deserve to be told the truth, to get a fair shake, to be included in decisions of where we're going and how our money should be spent, to have the opportunity to pursue happiness and spiritual well being in your own way.... it could not be more apparent who is who and what is what in this election. The choice is more clear cut than at almost any time in American history.
Friends, we are strong and they are weak; we are winning, but have not yet won. Keep going, don't let up... have a few uncomfortable conversations. Make plain your determination to preserve American democracy, restore reproductive rights, keep respect and dignity for all people alive, and bring the ol' ship of state back on course to actually solve our problems for the future. Onward to victory! We can win this, and we will!
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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10 October 2024
Polling is causing me to have a nervous condition
Just as I was getting used to the idea that it would be Pennsylvania that would be razor-close while Michigan and Wisconsin were relatively safe, Quinnipiac, which is considered a methodologically solid poll, shows Trump ahead in WI and MI, but trailing in PA! I need to take a step back and stop dwelling on polls, which historically are not a good predictor. (Indeed, they always say that, within the error margins, legitimate (i.e., not deliberately skewed, like Rasmussen and several others)... are pretty accurate at reflecting the "state of play," but they don't predict the future, with the highly volatile marginal voters, even a couple weeks out).
Anyone who knows what I know about Donald Trump would be certifiably insane to vote for him. But that's the core problem. The marginal voters in 3 to 7 states, who tend to be ill-informed, poorly educated, highly prone to racism and other prejudices, and not particularly intelligent (sorry, but this is all provably true)... don't know what most of us know about him and his sordid and nightmarish history. And they have a crazy assed view of the world and what right wing authoritarians like Trump and the other Trumpists would actually do if they gain power. So we just have to go into this not knowing the outcome and hope for the best, all the while not letting up on our efforts to do what we can to tip the outcome. If activated Democratic voters could influence on average, even 1 vote in the key marginal group in these states per 5 or so activists, we win for sure... but whether that is happening or not is almost impossible to tell.
I guess it never hurts to pray, too.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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08 October 2024
The real fake news... it's positively insidious.
I was infuriated this morning listening to the 5 min. summary of news on National Republican Radio (sorry, but...)
They talked about Milton and its threat then pivoted to the aftereffects of Helene in North Carolina. But it was a story, complete with a brief largely incoherent clip of Trump's voice, about how he claims the response has been inadequate. You heard him say and in these Republican areas that have been hit very hard, nobody knows how many are missing ... I can tell you this, these people will crawl to the polls to vote if they have to. No reporting on how these claims are false, as the governor of the state, and even Republican governor and Trump supporter Brian Kemp in neighboring Georgia, have said. Nothing about the response itself. All they reported on, complete with audio, is Trump's false claims, which they then failed to even mention were false.
If we lose this election, despite an at least 10 million vote popular vote margin, it will be because of this kind of shit.
I rarely listen to NPR any more, and now I never will.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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06 October 2024
There must be process; there must be justice
A Harris victory, though now pretty clearly more likely than not, is far from certain. Nonetheless, folks seem to be starting to think, tentatively, about the aftermath. I am assuming that Trump will lose the popular vote by many millions of votes, and the Electoral College "fair and square" (an oxymoron given that it is obviously an inherently unfair and undemocratic system). Further, I assume he will try everything to subvert the result and prevent the certification of her election. But he is not president, and the authorities are now aware of the types of criminal conduct likely to occur, and have had time to think carefully about countermeasures. So I think it's a fair bet that on January 6, 2025, Harris's victory will be certified and on Jan. 20 she will be inaugurated.
So the question is already being asked. What to do about his prosecutions? Is there any world in which Trump is pardoned, or for the prosecutions to be backpedaled? For the "sake of unity," or to "heal the divisions" blah blah. I want to say, no, no, no! And not out of a desire for retribution or vengeance. But to establish the precedent that you simply cannot do this... attempt to overthrow an election... and get away with it. I don't care if Trump never spends a single day in jail. He'll be almost 80, and he is clearly mentally incapacitated. But his crimes must be prosecuted, and he must be held accountable. The importance of accountability outweighs any considerations of tamping down division in the body politic. As for others, the lawyers who participated in this scheme should be disbarred and serve duly meted sentences, and others who knowingly cooperated in insurrection and attempted interference in the rightful procedures for the peaceful transfer of power, must also be held to account and serve whatever sentences the judicial process deals out.
Because, as Glenn Kirschner likes to say, justice matters.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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05 October 2024
Fundraising tactics that backfire for me
I get quite a few requests for money from candidates and PACs by email. So, I figure if I tell them what I don't like and what causes me to skip their email and block them, it might discourage them, so I do that. Sometimes. Here are a few:
- Disguising email titles and names of senders to make it look like it's from someone I know.
- Using some algorithm to make it say the email is from me. I send emails to myself, sometimes, for my own reasons, but I don't like it when a solicitation is labeled with my name.
- Promising a chance to meet or talk to the candidate (a Trump favorite, but of course I don't get crap from Trump)... and when you open it, it's solicitation for money for a "chance" to meet them.
- Sob stories about extra close polls or failures to meet fundraising deadlines, etc. I read the news. I know which polls are close and which aren't, and I am aware of the level of fundraising in this election. These appeals are almost always exaggerated, or exaggerate the importance of arbitrary deadlines.
Don't get me wrong. I'm giving a lot to elect Democrats in this election. I get it that they have to keep reminding people of the need for money, and that they have to figure only one out of a hundred actually yields a contribution. But these tactics are counterproductive for me.
02 October 2024
Evangelicals for Harris ad
Normally I don't cite to the late Billy Graham, but here it's apropos.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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27 September 2024
Tester! But also Allred! Kamala's ability to really govern at stake!
Far-flung friends of freedom!
I've focused my energy (and limited ability to donate) on the Tester Senate race in Montana, which is mostly unpolled. A small number of Republican bought and paid-for polls don't really tell the story, which is that the race is close, but we don't really know who's leading. Per Simon Rosenthal, the Democrats on the ground in the Tester campaign and the national party apparatus do believe this race is at least competitive. It's also considered pretty much a must-win if Democrats are to be able to retain control of the Senate.
The stakes are so high. Even with winning back the House and winning the presidency, (certainly realistic goals), Madame President Harris would have little chance of enacting a systematic legislative agenda, or even be able to keep up the flow of judicial appointments, including even Supreme Court appointments, without Senate Control.
But, now it appears there is at least a chance, not as good as incumbent Tester's odds, but a chance, that Colin Allred might be able to defeat the odious Ted Cruz in Texas. A recent credible poll showed him 1% ahead, well within the margin of error, but a first positive-territory major poll. Representing at least enough of a chance of winning to deserve our support. Accordingly, today I sent a small contribution to his campaign. Call it an insurance policy... it is not impossible we could lose Montana but squeak out a win in Texas. I would truly hate for that to not happen for want of just a relatively small number of Democrats' support.
Even in Florida, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Democrat Mucarsel-Powell to overtake and defeat Medicare fraudster Rick Scott. This is more of a long-shot, but certainly worth keeping an eye on, and even tipping a few bucks into. If we win Texas and Florida, it's likely Tester would win, too, and we could end up with 52-48. This is definitely optimistic, but far from out of the question. (Note: we will still need to end the filibuster once and for all, but I'm convinced that if Kamala Harris puts out the word she wants this, it would happen).
Forward! We have a historic, possibly last-chance, opportunity to put an end to Trumpism and get on with what needs to be done for the good of our country and its people! And we must not lose sight of the fact that these Senate races are critical to that effort.
I thank you for your consideration.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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26 September 2024
More exposure is the key for Harris and Walz
I'm just gonna say it. Trump is increasingly deranged and more and more looks and acts like an old man who feels threatened and put upon, and who is beginning to show the initial signs of age related dementia. And Harris is a brilliant politician who conveys sincere interest in doing the American People's business. But. He knows one thing if nothing else: keep your name and image in the news cycle every day. It's the old saw "there's no just thing as bad publicity. And he's doing this better than she is. Harris and Walz need to ramp up their game of making news. Make major announcements as often as possible. Do more TV and podcast interviews. As Walz likes to say, sleep when you're dead. It's not as if they're not doing this already. But they have to do it better. Walz is a valuable asset, but we're not seeing enough of him, with his appeal to rural and working people. We are, to all indications, winning. But it's way, way too close and the stakes are higher than before.
23 September 2024
Nebraska's refusal to go along with right wing scheme could actually decide the election
It is just possible that the failure of the Fascists, led by Lindsey Graham, to get Nebraska to change its allocation of electors from the current by-district system to a winner take all system in time for the election, will mean the difference between defeat and victory for Harris.
If she were to win all the "safe states" plus the blue wall of MI, WI, and PA, but lose NC, GA, AZ, and NV (a not-terribly unlikely possibility), she would have 269 to Trump's 269. But if Harris gets the Omaha district, it would be 270 to 268, and Harris wins.. Of course none of this has anything to do with who actually wins the popular vote (which means "wins the election" in every advanced democracy other than ours). Harris will win the popular vote; almost certainly. But it does determine who decides who will be president. If there were a tie in the Electoral College, the election would be thrown to the House, and with the extremely undemocratic (and so far never used) system the Constitution specifies, it would be decided by one-state one-vote, rather than just the vote of the House. And although the Republicans are only about 45% of the population, they have more states, so they would win. It is actually possible for Harris to win by 10 million votes or more nationwide and still lose the Electoral College. We just can't let that happen, but at least the one vote in the Omaha district remains available, and will likely go to Harris. It just could make all the difference.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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17 September 2024
15 September 2024
Really pretty simple
Dr. Bandy Lee, a psychiatrist who sounded an early warning about the obvious mental health issues of Donald Trump, sums up the present situation. Trump is a psychopath, pure and simple, and such people, when placed in positions of power and authority, always abuse that power and cause great damage to the institutions, or governments, over which they are given responsibility and power. Which of course is why people who really understand this about him are horrified at the prospect of his being elected to high office again.
14 September 2024
Heather Cox Richardson today
This is well worth reading. https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/september-14-2024?r=8kzi3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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Why I deplore authoritarianism everywhere
I got into a discussion of far right parties in Europe, such as the Alternativ für Deutschland, and the right wing parties in Poland, Hungary, Turkiye, Italy, France, and Spain. And I mused the following, as my reason for opposing these movements with every fiber of my being.
These right wing parties share a fundamental belief in authority, whether of institutions or a strongman, and a skepticism of both the desirability and the possibility of democracy. Flawed as it is, representative democracy as a governing principle is the only one that has ever led to government even partially in the interests of ordinary people, as opposed to the rich and powerful. And when authoritarians have interposed their perquisites and power "in the name of" the people, such as the Marxist Leninist revolutions in Russia, China and the former Soviet sphere, the result has been indistinguishable from violent fascism in almost all respects other than semantics.
The current authoritarian regimes in Russia and China (and to a slightly lesser extent India, Iran and Israel) are constrained by geopolitics to some extent, but they represent a trend of history I deplore utterly, that being authoritarianism. Which I think of as "early stage totalitarianism," since the progression of one to the other seems to be all but universal throughout history. Authoritarians may or may not ally themselves with other authoritarian regimes, but what they all oppose is democracy, especially in their own countries.
Every authoritarian country has its liberal minority (sometimes underground), and every "democratic" country has its authoritarian institutions and factions, but when a broad comparison is made, there is none. Only countries with intact legal systems guaranteeing actual election of the government, with the ability to unelect them still intact, are places where stable prosperity and opportunity for self-directed lifestyle are even possible. These far right parties don't accept this, and all I can say is, that's the way to the nightmare of totalitarianism, to be resisted by any means to hand.
13 September 2024
We must come together and win this election, and not just the presidency
Even though it does now seem more likely than not that Harris & Walz will pull it out and win this election, we who support democracy simply cannot let up. Please contribute what you can, whether in money or your time. But I want to emphasize what I consider to be equally important. The House flip seems also relatively more likely, but contributing time and funds (if you can) to key House races is also vital. I live in a flippable district, Oregon 5, so that will get a lot of my attention. And possibly even more critical is the Senate, where retaining control is going to be a long shot. Manchin is out and W VA is lost. That means we have to run the table pretty much to retain control. Here's my list:
Rosen in Nevada
Gallego in Arizona
Slotkin in Michigan
Baldwin in Wisconsin
Brown in Ohio
Tester in Montana ... very tight, even leans R
Casey in Pennsylvania
Alsobrooks in Maryland... a surprisingly close race
There is also at least a chance for Mucarsel-Powell in Florida (against Medicare crook Scott) and Colin Allred in Texas (against Ted Cruz).
We don't have to win every one of these (and both FL and TX are real long shots), but we need to win almost all of them. So anything you can do to help Democrats keep the Senate is worth the investment. If Harris is to win and have a genuinely consequential presidency, given the obstructionist character of modern Republicans, we must have both Houses. We simply must. If we don't, we will muddle through, but we can't afford any more muddling. Climate action, court reform, voting rights reform... the list of must-dos is long.
Thanks, folks.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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12 September 2024
Say it ain't so, Thuringians
I want to believe it's not much more than historical coincidence, but the region of Germany known as Thuringia is the birthplace of both Heinrich Schütz (Köstritz, now Bad Köstritz, 1585) and Bach (Eisenach, 1685). It is also nowadays the geographic stronghold of the NeoNazi Alternativ für Deutschland party.
09 September 2024
Freeze out Elon Musk
In light of his stated willingness to engage in activities which are a clear conflict of interest, despite being a major contractor with the US government, I would advocate that the Harris administration, if we succeed (as we must), should formally or informally reduce its involvement with Elon Musk, SpaceX, and Starlink, and pursue anti monopoly policies wherever possible.
I say this as a Tesla owner. Musk heads up some great enterprises that have accomplished some remarkable things. But country comes first, above private interests, and certainly above political affiliations. And if he fails to adhere to that principle, he should be frozen out. The US should not be beholden to or dependent on any one person or organization for any vital interest. Perhaps if SpaceX, Tesla and Starlink find themselves the subject of internal sanctions, they will rein in their putative leader and act like the good corporate citizens all enterprises hoping to do business with the US government must be required to be.
07 September 2024
What is at stake
You know, I can freak about the election as readily as the next guy. But I can also look beyond an anticipated (more than hoped for) victory of the forces of democracy and reason to a time when Trump and Trumpism is in the rearview mirror of a country where elections work and we use civil processes to decide our policies. And I actually think the unity that will be required for that to happen will be good for our country. Already we are making common cause with Dick Cheney for crying out loud. And I look at Dick Cheney and very conservative Republicans and I no longer think of them, on any level, really, as enemies. They are political opponents, with whom, in our country's hour of need, we must, and we do, make common cause. The truth is we have far more interests in common with them than the issues where we disagree would make it seem. We stand for our Constitution and our principles of self-rule and majority rule, however imperfectly applied... together. Against the authoritarian, minoritarian, racist and misogynist would-be dictatorship that is what Trump and Trumpism stand for. Once we have broken through, we will have an opportunity to reset the system. There will be reforms. We will make sure we really do have majority rule. And it will be their challenge to achieve majorities, legitimately. Which, make no mistake, sometimes they will. This is how it needs to be. It's the essence, the sine qua non, of democracy. And we will have compromise, civil discourse, and a type of unity once taken for granted but now understood to be something vital, something worth working for, something even to make sacrifices for. I am hopeful. And I feel a sense of patriotism and determination to save our country and its system that I have really never felt before. And that, my friends, is a good thing.
Onwards to the victory we simply MUST achieve. There is no excuse or acceptance of failure.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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What this election is really all about
There is absolutely no excuse for supporting Trump. This is not an election about policy, or philosophy of governance, or ideology. It is about whether we have a democratic republican system.... or Fascism. That simple. If you don't see that, you're not paying enough attention or you have been taken in by lies and propaganda. But that's just not acceptable. We cannot afford to lose, as there will be no going back.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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05 September 2024
Don't panic over Nate Silver
No claim of originality here. The Harris campaign is actually using Nate Silver's claim that Trump is ahead in the electoral count to motivate supporters to give more and work harder. Which is great. But a reality check is in order. As Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg have pointed out, Silver, without sound reasons, is factoring in what has been referred to as a "sugar high," in other words a flush of support or honeymoon for Harris, which his model predicts will evaporate. But the actual facts pretty strongly suggest this is exaggerated if not out and out unfounded. Since Dobbs, Democrats have consistently overperformed, not underperformed, polls, and, while new voter registration was poor in 2016 and hardly better in 2020, it was stupendous in 2022 and played a big role in the avoidance of the predicted Red Wave that year. This year, it was sluggish before July 21, but has been completely off the charts (up 176% among black women, for example) since then. And donations, including first time donations, are breaking all records by large margins. Moreover, while the traditional "convention bounce" was perhaps not quite as great as hoped, the trendlines of support for Harris have been quite consistently upward. Most models that use indicative data in addition to polling give greater weight to these things than the kind of "vibes" data that Silver is apparently using. If you're familiar with Bayesian reasoning, Silver is giving substantial weight in his Bayesian "priors" to data that is not actually based on anything measurable, while underweighting these kinds of actual real world data.
All of which is to say, don't panic. Rosenberg had pretty much stopped saying "I'd much rather be us than them" in the weeks just before and after the disastrous July debate, but since Biden withdrew and Harris consolidated the support of the party in a pitch-perfect manner in the time leading up to the convention, he has been saying it with greater force and emphasis than ever. We have a lot of work to do and this election is not in the bag. But we are in a far, far better position than they are. We should take heart. We are winning, and we can sustain this momentum for the 60 days until the election. It will take determination, money, and hard work, but we can do it, and we must.
Oh, and if you likes you your "unscientific" prediction models, know that Alan Lichtman, who has successfully predicted every presidential election at least 60 days out since 1980, has issued his "Keys to the Whitehouse" prediction: Harris wins. He has two "keys" based on foreign policy which he says could still flip, but Harris wins anyway in his model.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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If you like this message, please share it with others.
02 September 2024
Fwd: September 1, 2024
I subscribe to Heather Cox Richardson's substack, which usually deals with current affairs, but this one contains an excellent brief history of the origins of American Labor Day. Richardson is one of our most diligent and communicative public intellectuals.
Arlington event
I'm guessing most of my far-flung correspondents are sick of hearing about Trump's utterly disrespectfully commandeering of Section 60 at Arlington National Cemetery for an incredibly tone deaf, offensive, and patently illegal campaign event. But while mostly symbolic, I think this is actually a pretty big deal, as it combines many of the very reasons Trump is so obviously the most unqualified person ever to stand for election to the presidency in a serious way. It's arrogant, self-serving, self-aggrandizing, utterly disrespectful of the service of the fallen and the grief of their loved ones, etc. But it was the altercation, the hint of Jan. 6 style violence and contempt for law, that is most concerning, in my view. There must be video somewhere. The DOJ or FBI should (if they haven't already) subpena the materials, identify who shoved the Arlington employee (assuming, as I do, that this did happen). And that person should be charged with assaulting a federal employee in the course of their duties, and prosecuted in a high profile and exemplary fashion. Not political, but there should be a strong signal that this kind of behavior is not only disgusting, it is illegal, and there will be consequences. If possible, an effort to lodge a civil fine against the Trump campaign for violating regulations against using Arlington as a backdrop for campaign events should also be pursued.
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HARRIS
WALZ
Our Champions for Democracy
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