Drastic Change in Auto industry worldwide coming.

I've passed on some of the buzz about this before, but let me just say this succinctly. The legacy automakers, all of them, and especially the Japanese, should be very, very worried about the 18 (count 'em, 18) Chinese automakers. None of the Chinese (largest being BYD) seem to be planning to move into the North American market right now. And Tesla has world class high end electric cars, which will continue to gobble market share. But the Chinese are making high quality, attractive, and far more advanced electric cars that are selling, without rebates but before tariffs, for approximately $20,000, and they're starting to flood the market in Europe already. This will make the 1970s Japanese "invasion" look mild, although the Biden administration's plans to offer rebates on North American built cars will in fact help the US to remain competitive. Still, Ford, GM, Stellantis, Volkswagen, Porsche, Renault, BMW, Daimler, and, even moreso, Nissan, Honda, Subaru, Toyota, Mazda, Suzuki, and Mistubishi, are poised to be virtually wiped out because they have almost nothing that can compete. Hyundai group will struggle but may be able to find a niche because their cars are competitive in quality. But the Chinese are way out in front, especially in the critical area of software development, where the rest of the world has failed to realize that this isn't just something you outsource and don't stress too much but an absolutely critical component of the driving experience. (Most companies outsource this to, whaddaya know, the Chinese (including Taiwan), who tend to push their second tier product. Only the high end Audi, Porsche and BMW cars get the best systems, but here's the rub, they're not better than the ones in cheaper Chinese cars. Bottom line: the Chinese are just plain doing it better and cheaper. 

 

China has its challenges, to be sure, and none of this is cast in stone, but Western governments and corporations had better take the threat seriously, because as of right now they are falling behind rapidly. And the Japanese are probably in the worst situation of all. Their cars barely change from year to year except cosmetically (and the less said about Japanese styling the better)... and their response to the obvious rapid approach of a drastic changeover to electric cars has been abysmal. Full stop. Worse than abysmal. Even Nissan, which developed the Leaf early on, has fallen so far behind they're hardly selling any EVs, even in North America, where they have done better than anywhere else (Nissan has posted a loss two years running, because their ICE cars aren't selling either).