28 October 2004

Minority Turnout is the key

Josh Marshall posted a link to this press release from:
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. (703) 684-4510 FAX (703) 739-0664
915 King Street y 2 nd floor y Alexandria, Virginia 22314

I have omitted the tabular data, which doesn't appear on the post in readable format, but if you're interested, follow the link above. The conclusion is that if the voter suppression efforts of the Republicans are unsuccessful in minimizing the minority turnout, Kerry should win decisively.

Public Release of National Survey Results
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Tony Fabrizio
October 27, 2004 Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates
It Can’t Get Any Closer in the Battleground States —
Minority Turnout is Kerry Key

Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic
consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their third likely voter survey with interviews conducted ONLY in the remaining 12 battleground states.*
In the three-way Presidential ballot, the race is dead tied in these crucial battleground states with BOTH President Bush and Sen. Kerry receiving 47% of the vote. Ralph Nader receives 1.6% while just 4% of the battleground state likely voters are undecided.

"110 days after our first battleground survey, during which these voters withstood tens of millions of dollars of attack ads by both sides, two national conventions and three prime-time, televised debates, this race hasn’t changed one iota statistically in these battleground states. This data underscores just how little relevance national polling has in this race, given the consistency of the battleground data versus the weekly swings in the media’s national tracking surveys. However, a minor, but troubling trend nonetheless for the President is the evaporating support for Ralph Nader. Nader’s support has gone from minuscule to microscopic which benefits Sen. Kerry," said Tony Fabrizio, who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole’s ’96 Presidential campaign.

[table omitted]

However, as the data below illustrates, when the data is weighted to reflect turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry’s lead expands to 5.2% "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President’s campaign. If one assumes minority turnout exceeds their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Sen. Kerry," Fabrizio concluded.

[table omitted]

1 comment:

  1. If the democrats spent more time teaching their supporters how to read the instructions on their ballots and less time complaining about voter supression it would do wonders for their turnout. I love how every 4 years democrats care about blacks. Democrats need black votes but don't really want them; Republicans want black votes but don't really need them. The waning support for Kerry by blacks is the first ring in a long needed wake up call.


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