Republicans Poised to Wreck our Country on purpose if they get any Legislative Power

Heather Cox Richardson today (https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/september-29-2022?utm_source=email) makes a very solid case that the Republicans, if they win EITHER house, as it still seems fairly likely they will, intend to actually play the "debt ceiling card" and refuse to allow the already funded government programs to proceed. This has been threatened many times before, and the closest we came to calamity was probably in 2011. This kind of brinksmanship, and worse, actual 'nuclear war' if they were to follow through on it, is incredibly reckless. Virtually all economists and business analysts think the US defaulting on its debt would precipitate a giant Wall Street collapse, instant recession, hundreds of thousands of jobs lost and economic growth sidelined, and have very negative repercussions for the US financially indefinitely... essentially permanently. It would throw into question, even challenge, the US dollar's position as the world reserve currency... one of our greatest economic assets as a nation. So, any politician who cares about the welfare of our nation would never do such a damaging thing, right? 

Don't count on it. They don't care about the country, only their own deranged lust for power. And the MAGA nutjobs now run the party of Lincoln, which I am 100% sure he would've long since abandoned had he lived in our time. 

This is a hard message to make into a sound bite or a 20 sec. TV spot. But we have to somehow convey to people who will be REALLY HURT if this happens that the only safe way to make sure it doesn't is to keep the House and Senate in Democratic hands! 

Dearie should have none of it

Trump's pet judge Aileen Cannon has now overruled procedural orders of the Special Master and delayed the process over a month beyond what Dearie actually needs, for no other reason than to favor her obviously preferred "client," Donald Trump. Dearie should have none of it. He should resign, and issue a scathing explanation of why he is doing so. Cannon would be unable to hold on when the DOJ appeals asking the Court of Appeal to throw out the entire case, or reassign it on the grounds of actual bias. Which is ALWAYS a ground to recuse a judge. 

A subtle slur

Pretty sure it's a tell. I was interviewed for a phone survey.  The interviewer pretty conspicuously had a Southeast Asian accent, but that's not at all the point. The point is that her script referred to "Democrat" and "Republican" candidates (used as adjectives). Any legitimate organization, or a Democratic party poll, would use the correct form, "Democratic." It's the "Democratic Party," not the "Democrat Party," and it's deliberately degrading not to call it by its correct name. I concluded this was a right wing organization poll (such as Republican Party poll). I said to her, as nicely as I could, "when you use the word "Democrat" as an adjective, as in "Democrat Party," or "Democrat Candidate," it's a subtle slur. You might want to be aware of that. People who recognize that are likely to be offended by it." Right wingers do this all the time, and those of us who are politically attuned are keenly aware of it.  She said what the script tells her to say when the interviewer says anything other than the information she's supposed to record, "thank you for that information." But who knows, maybe she'll think about it a little, and I hope she realizes, as an employee, her employers most definitely do not have her interests at heart. 

Cuba and Ian

Although I'm fairly sure for purely political reasons the Democrats and Biden will not do this, I think the US would benefit in the long run in terms of redress for an overly long ice age (and it's the right thing to do)... if we were to offer pretty massive emergency aid to Cuba right now.  

Bolsonaro will try a Trumpian coup

It's being reported that Brazilian would-be dictator Jair Bolsonaro is already signaling that he will follow the Trump Jan. 6 playbook when (not if) he loses Brazil's upcoming presidential election (he's behind 12 pts. to Lula da Silva). THIS is the legacy of Trump... the US has become an example to the world of how democracy can be subverted... not how it can be made to work well. 

Bad Weather

If I thought like that monumental idiot Pat Robertson I would attribute the likely bull's eye hit of Ian on Florida to the evil that is Ron DeSantis. But I don't. It's just bad weather. 

Climate Change and technology based economic developments in the near future

I follow a lot of commentary on the technology of conversion away from fossil fuels, and what it's likely to mean. So here are some informal predictions that most people may not really have thought of.

1. The oil companies have failed to innovate a substitute production system. They will FAIL. And they will go down fighting, so we have to make sure we are politically stronger than they are.

2. The electrification of the auto sector will happen with lightning speed. Tesla, Hyundai (includes Kia), and to a lesser extent Daimler, BMW, VW, Ford and GM, have done enough that they will probably survive, although there are reports that GM is so saddled with legacy costs, useless plants, and debt that it may not avoid bankruptcy. Who's left out here? The JAPANESE. ALL of them. Even though Nissan pioneered the Leaf, and Toyota the Prius (25 year old fully obsolete hybrid technology)... they have not kept up, and in fact have resisted the changeover. All the Japanese manufacturers will struggle, and some will not survive. Toyota was the largest manufacturer of motor vehicles in the world until recently. It is so far behind on electrification that it will probably drop below 10% market share worldwide by 2030. Subaru, Mitsubishi, and Mazda would all be doomed if they were not part of larger concerns that make ships and other major industrial production. Stellantis (Fiat/Peugeot/Chrysler) is in deep trouble and will probably only survive as a Chinese company. Which brings up the elephant on the planet: China. China has TEN manufacturers set to produce electric cars in huge volumes over the next five years. They don't seem to be that interested in the North American market, but the Eurasian market, which is huge and growing, is likely to be dominated by them.

3. Nuclear technology is not right there, but it is coming along. We will likely see practical modular thorium (and possibly some low pressure uranium) fission reactors proliferating, mostly outside Europe and North America (for political reasons) in the next few years, and, FINALLY, there appears to be significant progress towards fusion energy production, which is likely to be a part of the solution, probably mostly after 2040. 

4.  Battery technology, which is critical not only for transportation but for practical use of solar and wind and other carbon neutral forms of energy production, is making wildly encouraging progress towards more efficient, longer lasting, and vastly cheaper batteries. The US is, surprisingly, doing well as an innovator here, whereas the actual production of most batteries, so far, centers on China. The Inflation Reduction Act makes a significant contribution to bringing this industry online more in America. 

Carbon impact of day to day living

I am 100% for responsibility with regard to climate change amelioration. But we should remember what is important and what, relatively speaking, is less so. Of course we should use less one-use plastic and drive electric cars. But it's the conversion of the entire transportation infrastructure and energy infrastructure that is what will do what's needed, not individual responsibility, by and large. Keep in mind that even if the electricity to drive your EV were entirely derived from renewables (which it isn't, in North America, certainly), you would still have to drive it for about ten years to offset the carbon impact just from the fact that it is new, i.e., another car, with the carbon impact of its very manufacture. Even if it replaces an ICE car that goes to recycling, that, too, is additional carbon impact. And driving it for an entire year doesn't make up for a single thousand mile flight in an airliner by one person. You would have to reuse a plastic container about 10,000 times to equal one such flight, and that includes the carbon impact of making the containers and disposing of them. And we bemoan the plastics in the ocean, but almost all of it comes from shipping disposal and environmentally detrimental disposal methods in less advanced countries; very little plastic from North America ends up in the ocean. This isn't intended to recommend wasteful behavior; far from it. The point is that our collective action to convert all of society into a renewable energy mode, and one that develops sustainable materials technology, is what is essential. Individual "good behavior" is secondary and would never be enough. 

Keep the Faith and Don't Give Up

Friends, we simply cannot give up. The consensus seems to be that we Democrats have something like a 1 in 4 chance of keeping the House. Not great odds. But we simply HAVE TO WIN, so the time is now to do what you can, kick in what money you can to critical, winnable races, and NOT GIVE UP. That is all. 

Grifter Trump, Blackmailer Extraordinaire?

Think about it. Folks who really know Donald Trump, significantly Michael Cohen, have seriously suggested that when it comes right down to it, Trump will blackmail the whole country by threatening to reveal damaging stuff from the documents cache (of which he undoubtedly has copies)... if he isn't given immunity or at least a sweetheart deal. (And if that happens, we may never know of it). This isn't provable, but you gotta admit it fits. I hate this guy about at the same level as I hate Vladimir Putin... for risking the safety and security of our whole f*ing WORLD. 

Biden could reclassify

In all the commentary on declassification, it should be constantly reiterated and kept in mind that President Biden can (and perhaps should) reclassify anything that Trump supposedly declassified... even without specifying exactly what it might have been. Trump is not being accused of mishandling classified records, so any issue of whether the records he stole bearing classification markings are or are not currently classified could be easily and speedily resolved by an order identifying all documents bearing classification markings taken or at any time in the possession of Trump or anyone associated with him on or after January 20, 2021 and declaring all such documents to be classified according to the markings they originally bore, regardless of any allegation by Trump or others that they were at any time declassified. I can discern no argument that Biden does not have the absolute power to do this, and it would protect all such documents from inadvertent or illegal disclosure by anyone. And this would include any documents Trump still has in his possession. 

My Five Points for What Democrats Stand For (and will do their damndest to get done if we get the votes)

With all the obsessive attention to the Failed Former Guy and his legal troubles, we Democrats need to focus, focus, focus on the midterms, where we simply must pick up two "normal" Democrats in the Senate, and keep the House majority. We know from recent history that long, "Federalist Paper" style considerations of policy issues and platforms don't really penetrate the electoral consciousness and don't help much to win elections. But, on the other hand, I think people who are not very political and don't really see and understand the extent to which politics in America has become a struggle between (ironically) the small-r republican faction, which has roughly 60% support of the public, and what I like to call the "Big-fat-F Fascist faction." Which, of course, is what the big-R Republican party has become. And polling for the past few months puts their fraction of consistent support at about 34%, possibly less. To convince the wobblier cohort of the 60% I'm calling small-r Rs, and at least some of the "inexplicable remainder," the remaining 6% that is either so tuned out of politics or so stupid that they can't decide whether they want to live in a republic or a fascist dictatorship, I think Democrats, and those likely to vote Democratic who may have formerly been Republicans, definitely need to cohere as a movement and party and stand for something. Say, explicitly, clearly, and unifiedly, what it is we stand for, in bold and simple form. Our policy, agenda, manifesto, platform, whatever you want to call it. I suggest simply calling it "What Democrats Stand For and will do their damndest to get done if you give us your vote!"

And, modestly, here is my proposal. Trying to limit it to just five memorable but crucial points. Of course there are lots and lots of things progressives would like to see get done, but if we can achieve two years of legislative control, we have a real opportunity to make enormous positive changes in our country, and we owe it to the future to define the broad outlines of what we stand for and to highlight the most important goals. Of course we have struggles within our own party, but sometimes clearly stating what you stand for can help defeat special interests from within as well as in the opposition. 

Having a platform is no substitute for political work, meaning GOTV, voter outreach, etc., but it is part of what's necessary to "win hearts and souls" to a broadly unifying political framework that is consistent with the constitutional framework of our country. At a time when what the opposition offers is no plan, no program, just the destruction of democracy and the substitution of oligarchic authoritarianism. This threat is very real, and yet we know from history that potential fascists are often very, very good at manipulating the public, so as obvious to those broadly on the "left" as it may be, there is a large cohort of the population that is at least somewhat deaf to the clarion warnings of possible dictatorship, and lulled by the appeals to tribal cohesion that the Right does so well. 

So, here is my Platform for America, in Five Points: 

• Restore integrity to our democracy and keep elections secure, safe, fair, and available to all citizens, and work to make our institutions more democratic, not less
• Continue the buildout of smart, safe and renewable infrastructure to make all Americans more prosperous and ensure a safe and livable environment for ourselves and our posterity
• Ensure reproductive and other critical human rights against incursion from those who would take them away
• Work to ensure that everyone in America can get a good job, has decent comprehensive health care, can get a good education, has access to a decent place to live, and has enough to eat -- because it's the RIGHT THING TO DO. 
• Work to ensure that at all levels of government, and in workplace and business regulation, essential fairness is the watchword, so everyone gets a fair shake and no one is above the law or specially privileged 

I welcome comments on this. 

11 Cir.: Govt. keeps classified stuff, and does not have to have it reviewed by Trump's lawyers or special master

If you're a newswonk like me, you're sick and tired of hearing about the Failed Former F*head and everything about his legal troubles, but can't quite stay away either. Anyway, here is a point about the 11th cir. repudiation of Trump sycophant "Judge" Aileeen Cannon that didn't get a lot of notice. The Spec. Master, Judge Dearie, already told the parties he didn't really see any need to actually see the classified stuff the FBI seized, but the 11th cir. made this moot, as Joyce Vance noted in her daily newsletter:  "The 11th Circuit also excused the government from any obligation to submit classified materials to the special master for review."

Oppose Manchin's Dirty Fossil Fuel Deal

I almost think it shouldn't be necessary to say this, but I strongly oppose Joe Manchin's dirty deal on fossil fuels. And why should we make any concessions to this a*hole? We remember how he screwed us repeatedly, and his grudging support, in the bitterest, almost-too-late end, for about a quarter of what Build Back Better should've been, doesn't qualify as a quid pro quo that I would ever support. What is necessary for the future of our country right now more than anything actually feasible this year, are 1) elect at least two additional "normal" Democratic senators and lose no seats in the Midterm; and 2) retain the House in Democratic hands. If we have those, till 2024 at least, we can tell Manchin where to stuff his corporatist fossil fuel lobby BS. For now, I say, kill the damn bill. 

Geshe Kelsang Gyatso (1931--Sept. 17, 2022)

The celebrated and accomplished Tibetan monk and "geshe" (advanced practitioner/scholar) in the Kadam or Gelug tradition of Tibetan Buddhism, Geshe Kelsang Gyatso, has died. He died Saturday. He was 91. His followers refer to his passing as "showing us the way to pass peacefully into the clear light." 

I formerly considered Geshe Kelsang my "spiritual teacher" and it was from his teachings, writings, and disciples' teachings that my husband and I learned what we were able to about traditional Tibetan Buddhist thought and practice. I still regard him as a great teacher and wonderful example, despite some aspects of the tradition he created ("New Kadampa Tradition") that I, at any rate, found unsupportable and in some cases not believable. We mark his passing with sadness but also with recognition that his time had come and he did accept and understand passing "into the clear light" as another part of the life of a spiritual teacher.  

Battery technology in the near future

A little wonky, but this video shows that battery technology is in flux, and it appears that much more flexible, faster, cheaper, and more environmentally sustainable batteries are under development. 

It seems clear that the problems of converting the world to renewable energy and going from there to solve the Climate Crisis are almost entirely political. The technical problems are almost certainly solveable. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3BEefD-Zac&list=TLPQMTYwOTIwMjJzXnMOqn4pww&index=1  

Why is John Yoo being treated with respect?

Lately I've seen Bush era OLC lawyer John Yoo being respectfully consulted as a paid pundit on CNN and writing op-eds in the Washington Post. This creep, who is a tenured professor at UC Berkeley Law School, lest we forget, is the author of the notorious and disgraceful memo purporting to justify torture. He should've been disgraced, dismissed, and disbarred years ago and certainly should not be being given any credence or respect today. Some things you just can't walk away from or ignore, and to the best of my knowledge he has never retracted or repudiated his grotesque, law-distorting, and immoral stance while working for the second-worst president in our history. If the law does not uphold the most fundamental principles of humanity, it loses all moral suasion, which is so dangerous that people like Yoo who convolute their forensic and language skills to seem to justify the most immoral kind of abuse of power conceivable, should forfeit their careers and all respect, at a bare minimum. 

Getting used to the new inflation regime

I don't like seeing the value of my savings dwindle due to inflation any more than the next person, but doesn't it seem obvious that in an economy straitened by things like the Ukraine War, the supply chain effects of the pandemic, chronic labor shortage in North America (!), etc., that it's inevitable that prices will rise, and wages will rise as well... leaving people living on slower growing investments or (worse) fixed or inadequately indexed annuity or pension income to take a hit in overall wealth? We have a huge cohort of baby boomers and even somewhat younger people retiring or retired. We have become accustomed to a standard of living that was a good deal easier to come by 30 or 40 years ago than now. So it seems inevitable to me that the "saved wages" of this nonproductive cohort is going to decrease in value. I don't see it as a crisis, but rather as an adjustment. Many of us oldsters will have to tighten the belt just a bit. And some others will drop to low-income status that will (or should in any future legislation) qualify them for additional assistance. Is it wunnerful, wunnerful? Nope, but it seems predictable and tolerable at least for most people, to me. 

I'm not saying we should not have policies to rein in inflation and prevent runaway inflation (obviously). But I don't expect them to work perfectly, and I don't expect no hit to my lifestyle as a result of changed circumstances. I guess that puts me in the "realist" camp. 

Malcolm Nance interview

Malcolm Nance isn't afraid to say what many of us pretty much think but are uncomfortable saying.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv4-tSH-BOk 

I don't 'get' Republican support for nationwide abortion ban

Maybe my usually pretty good political instincts are off kilter, but it's hard for me to understand what Republicans in the Senate, and Miss Graham in particular, are thinking in introducing a nationwide abortion ban bill. Such "big government intrusion" obviously goes against their supposed philosophy, but that's not what makes me wonder what they're thinking. The fact is that even most of their own base doesn't want this, and in fact opposition to it is strong and growing among the Independents sector that they absolutely depend on to win elections. Even at the state level. So I just don't get it, even looked at from their point of view. You have to know these unprincipled charlatans (to a man, and woman, that's what the GOP is)... don't really care about abortion much on principle. Somehow they think this is going to help them hold on to and expand their power, and I just don't see how they reach that conclusion. But hey... if they want to shoot themselves in the foot, great.