New post by Jakub Józef Orliński

 It's not so often, anymore, that music brings tears to my eyes on first hearing. But this did. Just posted April 10. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoOdi4qQQBU   

Jakub Józef Orliński - Countertenor

Jakub Józef Orliński - Countertenor

 

A.Vivaldi „Eja Mater" - Jakub Józef Orliński & Aleksander Dębicz

Life in the time of Corona Virus: Even less than perfect testing can be effective, but ONLY if massively deployed... and we are not doing that

Please read this to help understand why a full-on wartimelike mobilization to develop and deploy MILLIONS of tests and follow up contact tracing and isolation of positives is the ONLY WAY we will be able to return to a semblance of normality short of a vaccine or effective antiviral treatment. It's all about getting R0 under 1, so that the virus can be contained if it breaks out. This really only takes place AFTER we get this initial wave under control, but if we're not ready to go at that point with testing on a massive scale, the epidemic will just come roaring back. (And early indications are that, like other coronaviruses, this one is NOT seasonal, and can return even in Summer).

Sadly, our Federal government is simply not doing what needs to be done to control this epidemic. They failed to take any useful action in January (even the so called travel ban with China was entirely ineffective). They wasted February. They wasted March, doing virtually nothing other than cooperating with states that imposed stay at home orders and actually interfering with the efficient control of supplies of critical medical equipment, making the situation worse not better. Now they seem to be wasting April, talking about totally infeasible early ending of social isolation procedures, which if implemented will only cause the epidemic to roar back.

Massive testing, contact tracing, and isolation of positives is the ONLY way to suppress the epidemic enough to allow any return to relatively normal activity.

https://paulromer.net/covid-sim-part3/

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Vote like the future depends on it. 

Because it does. 

Wa Po: National Coronavirus Plan emerging... no thanks to Trump

Focusing on the positive: this emerging plan has all the essentials necessary to actually get control of this thing: massive testing enterprise; contact tracing of positives; isolation of positives.

«  [A] collection of governors, former government officials, disease specialists and nonprofits are pursuing a strategy that relies on the three pillars of disease control: ramp up testing to identify people who are infected. Find everyone they interact with by deploying contact tracing on a scale America has never attempted before. And focus restrictions more narrowly on the infected and their contacts so the rest of society doesn't have to stay in permanent lockdown. »

Focusing on the negative: it shows up in stark relief the utter and complete incompetence and lack of leadership on the part of Trump and the Trump administration.

Big surprise.

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Vote like the future depends on it. 

Because it does. 

Vote Blue 2020. 

Daily Testing Rant.

This piece underscores the need for a truly massive enterprise to not only get the number of new cases and deaths down to as low as possible using physical isolation, but to test nearly everyone (both serum and swab to find active cases, asymptomatic carriers, and those who have antibodies and may be immune), and to quarantine and contact trace everyone who tests positive or had close contact with someone who tests positive. This is the ONLY WAY we can get control of this thing short of effective antivirals or vaccines. Which WE CANNOT AFFORD TO WAIT FOR.

We must demand full mobilization to get this done with the fierce urgency that it warrants.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/08/coronavirus-unlikely-diminish-with-warm-weather-national-academies-sciences-panel-finds/?itid=hp_hp-banner-main_virusweather-1215p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

Testing / Contact Tracing / Quarantine of Positives... the ONLY WAY (again)

Rajiv Shah (MD), the head of the Rockefeller Foundation, was excellent on Chris Hayes today, explaining EXACTLY what I've been saying. "We need a huge massive enterprise to expand testing around the world"... the only "pathway out" of our current economic and public health predicament. Testing both serum and diagnostic, contact tracing, and isolation of people testing positive is the ONLY way to actually succeed in suppressing the epidemic short of effective antivirals and/or vaccines. The sooner people understand this and start DEMANDING that our government mobilize whatever resources are necessary to get this done, the sooner life can return to some semblance of normal. The fact that it is also the only way to minimize more death and suffering should be reason enough.   

TEST, CONTACT TRACE, QUARANTINE EVERYONE TESTING POSITIVE.

TEST, CONTACT TRACE, QUARANTINE EVERYONE TESTING POSITIVE. RINSE. REPEAT.

Iceland only has a third of a million people, so it's easier for them, but this is what EVERY country, including ours, needs to do if there is going to be ANY chance of returning to relatively normal economic and social conditions before the development of reliable antiviral treatments and/or vaccines. (Which could be more than a year from now).

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/04/iceland-is-testing-its-general-population-for-coronavirus-a-significant-number-of-positives-are-asymptomatic.html

••• 尚大文

My daily rant on the subject of testing.

testing as an absolute imperative

I feel I have to say this EVERY day until something happens. The key to getting through this to anything like a normal state, with a normal economy, is TESTING TESTING TESTING. Test everyone insofar as possible. Develop and deploy both swab (current infection) and serum (presence of antibody) tests designed to give instant results and cost very little. Deploy, deploy, deploy. Equivalent to wartime necessity. I see NO SIGN the idiots in charge of our country get this. But if we want to return to anything like a normal economy before effective antirvirals or vaccines are available (up to 18 months and no guarantee), this is the ONLY way. Testing, contact tracing, isolation of positives. There is no other way.

The vital importance of testing

I don't know why it's so difficult for people to understand the importance of cheap, nearly universal, and reliable testing, both diagnostic and serology (antibody testing to determine if the person has been exposed and either recovered or remained asymptomatic. Even this article doesn't really lay it out clearly. Which is as follows. We will NOT be able to "return to normal" until we are easily and reliably able to determine who is and who is not infectious. Even after a "die down" following a peak, as modeled by IHME {here} ... without testing and immediate quarantine of people who test positive, we will have repeated waves of infection, at least until an effective antiviral treatment or vaccine becomes available, which could easily be more than a year from now. Estimates are that up to 97% of the population will REMAIN susceptible to the virus after the initial peaks and die downs the model anticipates. This strongly suggests that repeated outbreaks, more strain on medical facilities, and more deaths, can be expected. Testing and contact tracing, such as was done effectively in S. Korea and even to a great extent in Japan, could ameliorate these developments, and the antibody tests could provide us with a pool of people who have some or even robust immunity. Such people could help greatly in future handling of outbreaks. This is not opinion. It is fact based analysis.

Yet our miserable excuse for a Federal disaster response has STILL not successfully ramped up testing.

We should call on wealthy philanthropists, like the Waltons, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, the remaining Koch brother; the Sackler gang (responsible for the Oxycontin epidemic), to step in and fill the breach. Fund and coordinate a massive research and development project to make tens of millions of tests available ASAP.

It is their PATRIOTIC duty.

IHME model projections

While this information indicates that WITH continued physical distancing, which means closure of nonessential businesses and schools, etc. for several more MONTHS, many parts of the country, including the West Coast, will avoid serious overtaxing of the medical care system. But for there to be any kind of return to normal life, it is clear, we will ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO start testing nearly everyone, and isolate people who are positive. Otherwise, we can fully expect the epidemic to come roaring back in successive waves. At some point, we hope, there will be effective antiviral treatments and/or vaccines, but until then, massive testing and isolation of positives is the only possible way to stave off complete disaster.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

 

Where the hell is mobilization? Airlifts?

 We have the world's largest military. With tremendous logistical capability, including the ability to construct giant field hospitals anywhere and even staff them. Why in HELL aren't they airlifting critical patients to wherever there is room for them, and constructing giant temporary hospitals to which patients who can't be cared for in peak outbreak areas can be airlifted on short notice? Why? One word: Trump. This narcissistic sociopath hasn't done a damn thing. And Americans of all walks of life are dying. If the American people reelect this monster the only possible explanation can be mass hysteria on a historically unprecedented scale, because ANYONE with half a brain can see this is the most malignantly incompetent handling of a major crisis in American history.

What then must we do, RIGHT NOW, goddamnit

Look up Rachel Maddow's opening segment today on MSNBC. She got it 100% right, including "it's too late, but we can't just do nothing. Yesterday would've been better than today, but today is better than tomorrow." 

Wartime Strategic Materials

Our federal government is failing miserably at handling the emergency. There are so many aspects to this that one could literally go on and on about it page after page. But here's one aspect of it I haven't seen discussed. I'm surprised, frankly, something like this idea hasn't already been done.

PPE, medical equipment, certain staples and basic supplies even including things like paper towels and toilet paper, should be declared by Congress to be pandemic emergency strategic commodities. Supply lines and prices should be regulated on a wartime schedule. Fair markup to compensate manufacturers, distributors and retailers at a standard rate. All profiteering treated as a serious felony, with fines minimum $10,000 up to 1000x the retail price of the product being trafficked.

We need to start thinking of this as a war. Because it is. And in wartime, trafficking in strategic materials is very close to treason.

 

On how to deal with the Coronavirus Epidemic

I keep saying this, but I am going to keep on saying it, in hopes that it will influence a few people and that others saying similar things will create a critical mass to actually do something.

 

There is only one way… ONE WAY… before there is an effective antiviral treatment or vaccine, to prevent millions of cases, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and continued virtual cessation of the economy. And that is to drive the R0 ("R naught") for our country down to or below 1. (R0 < 1). If you don't understand what R0 is, it's pretty simple. It's the rate of infection of others by each infected person. If each person contracting the virus infects fewer than one other person, in relatively short order, the rate of new infections drops to zero. It's Epidemiology 101.

No amount of "social distancing" or other half measures that fail to achieve this will actually stop the epidemic. Any easing up will just cause it to return later.

Our Federal government botched the response early on. That's just a fact, and there's no point in arguing about it. But what is actually worse is that our governments, even our state governments, are STILL not doing what is necessary.

This is a war. We have seen what it is doing to our economy, our way of life, everything. We have to respond to it the way our country responded to Pearl Harbor. Full mobilization. Temporary extraordinary measures. Compulsion that we're not used to in this country, but it's necessary. If you read about what has been done in China, Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, you realize that suggestions and half measures are not enough. We must mobilize as if we were in a major war, because WE ARE.

There is no way to get R0 below one other than the following: TEST at least 65% of the adult population while maintaining "Stay at Home" nationwide. TEST everyone who is asymptomatic and tests negative again with an antibody test to determine if they are exposed asymptomatic immune. Such people are very much needed to help in the fight. It may even be necessary to draft some of them into service.

The reason for the 65% figure is that this is the threshold where, if that percentage of the population is immune, or isolated, or recovered, or known negative, then the virus will begin to disappear. This happens naturally, but only after a devastating catastrophe that we MUST prevent.

Those who test positive but are asymptomatic must be STRICTLY quarantined for at least 14 days. Everyone who tests positive and is ill needs to be given treatment in ISOLATION.

There needs to be a worldwide effort, but right now a major national effort, to produce a cheap, disposable, and eminently mass producible test with at least 99% reliability. This should be the challenge. The first company to succeed should get, not a patent, but a direct reward payment from the US treasury of $1 billion. The powers invoked (finally) by Trump to force manufacture of war materiel should be used to ramp up mass production of PPE, test materials, field hospitals, and major isolation installations to treat the sick without continuing to spread the virus in the population. Thousands of people with ancillary medical training and skills should be brought in from the serum immune population to help with this effort.  

In the meantime, EVERY conceivable effort must be promoted and funded to develop effective antivirals and vaccines, because that is what will finally end this and allow international exchange and travel to resume.

If our nation finally realizes that this REALLY is the equivalent of a World War event, this kind of response can work. There will have to be massive relief efforts in conjunction with it, and a total commitment of the citizenry to cooperate and make it work.

This is our challenge.

 

We need truly MASSIVE SARS-CoV 2 testing NOW

I don't pretend to be a medical expert, but some things are pretty obvious and it's equally obvious that no one is actually doing them. Would love to see some more discussion of this issue. 

In order to really get a handle on this thing, it is painfully obvious that we need to massively ramp up testing, including antibody testing, of VIRTUALLY EVERYONE. If we are able to determine who is infected, and who has recovered, we would be able to isolate the infected, and make use of the willing recovered who presumably have at least temporary immunity. By reducing to very low numbers the people who are out and about spreading the virus in the community, which is mostly the asymptomatic infected that widespread testing can identify, we could start to really bring the numbers of new cases and deaths down, much faster. This has already been demonstrated to work in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and, to a slightly lesser degree, S. Korea. PPE and ventilators are desperately needed. But so is truly massive testing. We need tens of millions a week, not hundreds of thousands, of diagnostic and antibody tests to determine who is and has been infected, with a goal to testing at least 60% of the adult population just as soon as possible. (That number is frequently cited as the threshold for "herd immunity.") 

And to those who would argue feasibility or cost, I would like to point out the enormous, even catastrophic cost of NOT doing this. This is a war. This is probably the ONLY path to victory, if victory means significantly reducing the number of people who become very sick and even die from this disease, and significantly accelerating an end to the devastating effects on both public health and the economy. We are spending a vast amount of non-existent money (debt and printing money) to mitigate the effects; this is something that would actually redress the causes. And just as it proved feasible to build liberty ships in a week during World War 2, if we really are determined to do this, we can do it. It takes the will, making the resources available, and sheer determination to get it done. The question is whether our nation still has that kind of ability, or not. Our future likely depends on the answer to that question. 

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Sent this to my state representative about unnecessary state park closures

 Dear Rep. Meek, 

You came to my door during the last election campaign (Robinette Court in North Clackamas), which I appreciated.

I have not written to you before, but now I have an issue that I consider quite important, which is the misguided and unnecessary closure of all the State Parks to day use. I of course understand the thinking, but I would urge you to consider proposing a reversal of this policy to the governor or by a resolution or something. People need fresh air, a place to enjoy a little sunshine and nature, take the dog for a walk, etc. EVEN MORE now than in normal times. And we're told by the CDC and others that "stay home" doesn't literally mean stay inside, it means avoid physical contacts. But it's completely possible, easy, even, to go to a most parks most of the time and stay more than six feet away from everyone. You drive there in your own car, no contact, walk around, no contact, go home, no contact. There is just NO GOOD REASON to restrict this activity, and it's very important and beneficial to peoples' mental health in these trying times. I am very angry about this and strongly urge you to do something about it. Why not just post regulations requiring physical distancing, and close only those parks (such as some beaches) that typically become too crowded?  Just because we are doing everything we can to slow the spread of this terrible disease doesn't mean that everything we do has to come to an end. Where, as here, there is just no good reason for the restrictions, there needs to be more flexibility. 

I am law abiding and am not planning on breaking rules. But I will point out that regulations that are unnecessary and overly restrictive like this INVITE people to disregard them. And once people start ignoring restrictions, it's harder to enforce the ones that are truly necessary. EVERY restriction imposed because of this disease should be CAREFULLY limited to only what is truly necessary for this very reason. 

Thank you. 

David Studhalter

Fwd: The Big Picture on Coronavirus: Interview with Larry Brilliant

this is interesting, if you haven't had altogether too much coronavirus discussion already, in which case right above is the delete button. Please hit. 

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Tikkun & the Network of Spiritual Progressives <rabbilerner@tikkun.org>
Date: Thu, Mar 26, 2020 at 4:01 PM
Subject: The Big Picture on Coronavirus: Interview with Larry Brilliant
To: David Studhalter <studhalter@gyromantic.com>

We need your support to bring the kind of analyses and information Tikkun provides. Click here to make a tax-deductible contribution. The Doctor who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming by Steven Levy Image courtesy of Joi Ito Larry Brilliant says he doesn't have a crystal ball. But 14 years ago, Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox, spoke to a TED audience and described what the next pandemic would look like. At the time, it sounded almost too horrible to take seriously. "A billion people would get sick," he said. "As many as 165 million people would die. There would be a global recession and depression, and the cost to our economy of $1 to $3 trillion would be far worse for everyone than merely 100 million people dying, because so many more people would lose their jobs and their health care benefits, that the consequences are almost unthinkable."   Now the unthinkable is here, and Brilliant, the Chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics, is sharing expertise with those on the front lines. We are a long way from 100 million deaths due to the novel coronavirus, but it has turned our world upside down. Brilliant is trying not to say "I told you so" too often. But he did tell us so, not only in talks and writings, but as the senior technical advisor for the pandemic horror film Contagion, now a top streaming selection for the homebound. Besides working with the World Health Organization in the effort to end smallpox, Brilliant, who is now 75, has fought flu, polio, and blindness; once led Google's nonprofit wing, Google.org; co-founded the conferencing system the Well; and has traveled with the Grateful Dead. We talked by phone on Tuesday. At the time, President Donald Trump's response to the crisis had started to change from "no worries at all" to finally taking more significant steps to stem the pandemic. Brilliant lives in one of the six Bay Area counties where residents were ordered to shelter in place. When we began the conversation, he'd just gotten off the phone with someone he described as high government official, who asked Brilliant "How the fuck did we get here?" I wanted to hear how we'll get out of here. The conversation has been edited and condensed. Steven Levy: I was in the room in 2006 when you gave that TED talk. Your wish was "Help Me Stop Pandemics." You didn't get your wish, did you? Larry Brilliant: No, I didn't get that wish at all, although the systems that I asked for have certainly been created and are being used. It's very funny because we did a movie, Contagion— We're all watching that movie now. People say Contagion is prescient. We just saw the science. The whole epidemiological community has been warning everybody for the past 10 or 15 years that it wasn't a question of whether we were going to have a pandemic like this. It was simply when. It's really hard to get people to listen. I mean, Trump pushed out the admiral on the National Security Council, who was the only person at that level who's responsible for pandemic defense. With him went his entire downline of employees and staff and relationships. And then Trump removed the [early warning] funding for countries around the world. I've heard you talk about the significance that this is a "novel" virus. It doesn't mean a fictitious virus. It's not like a novel or a novella. Too bad. It means it's new. That there is no human being in the world that has immunity as a result of having had it before. That means it's capable of infecting 7.8 billion of our brothers and sisters. Since it's novel, we're still learning about it. Do you believe that if someone gets it and recovers, that person thereafter has immunity? So I don't see anything in this virus, even though it's novel, [that contradicts that]. There are cases where people think that they've gotten it again, [but] that's more likely to be a test failure than it is an actual reinfection. But there's going to be tens of millions of us or hundreds of millions of us or more who will get this virus before it's all over, and with large numbers like that, almost anything where you ask "Does this happen?" can happen. That doesn't mean that it is of public health or epidemiological importance. Is this the worst outbreak you've ever seen? It's the most dangerous pandemic in our lifetime. We are being asked to do things, certainly, that never happened in my lifetime—stay in the house, stay six feet away from other people, don't go to group gatherings. Are we getting the right advice? Well, as you reach me, I'm pretending that I'm in a meditation retreat, but I'm actually being semi-quarantined in Marin County. Yes, this is very good advice. But did we get good advice from the president of the United States for the first 12 weeks? No. All we got were lies. Saying it's fake, by saying this is a Democratic hoax. There are still people today who believe that, to their detriment. Speaking as a public health person, this is the most irresponsible act of an elected official that I've ever witnessed in my lifetime. But what you're hearing now [to self-isolate, close schools, cancel events] is right. Is it going to protect us completely? Is it going to make the world safe forever? No. It's a great thing because we want to spread out the disease over time. Flatten the curve. By slowing it down or flattening it, we're not going to decrease the total number of cases, we're going to postpone many cases, until we get a vaccine—which we will, because there's nothing in the virology that makes me frightened that we won't get a vaccine in 12 to 18 months. Eventually, we will get to the epidemiologist gold ring. What's that? That means, A, a large enough quantity of us have caught the disease and become immune. And B, we have a vaccine. The combination of A plus B is enough to create herd immunity, which is around 70 or 80 percent. I hold out hope that we get an antiviral for Covid-19 that is curative, but in addition is prophylactic. It's certainly unproven and it's certainly controversial, and certainly a lot of people are not going to agree with me. But I offer as evidence two papers in 2005, one in Nature and one in Science. They both did mathematical modeling with influenza, to see whether saturation with just Tamiflu of an area around a case of influenza could stop the outbreak. And in both cases, it worked. I also offer as evidence the fact that at one point we thought HIV/AIDS was incurable and a death sentence. Then, some wonderful scientists discovered antiviral drugs, and we've learned that some of those drugs can be given prior to exposure and prevent the disease. Because of the intense interest in getting [Covid-19] conquered, we will put the scientific clout and money and resources behind finding antivirals that have prophylactic or preventive characteristics that can be used in addition to [vaccines]. When will we be able to leave the house and go back to work? I have a very good retrospect-oscope, but what's needed right now as a prospecto-scope. If this were a tennis match, I would say advantage virus right now. But there's really good news from South Korea—they had less than 100 cases today. China had more cases imported than it had from continuous transmission from Wuhan today. The Chinese model will be very hard for us to follow. We're not going to be locking people up in their apartments, boarding them up. But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000. Now that we've missed the opportunity for early testing, is it too late for testing to make a difference? Absolutely not. Tests would make a measurable difference. We should be doing a stochastic process random probability sample of the country to find out where the hell the virus really is. Because we don't know. Maybe Mississippi is reporting no cases because it's not looking. How would they know? Zimbabwe reports zero cases because they don't have testing capability, not because they don't have the virus. We need something that looks like a home pregnancy test, that you can do at home. If you were the president for one day, what would you say in the daily briefing? I would begin the press conference by saying "Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to Ron Klain—he was the Ebola czar [under President Barack Obama], and now I've called him back and made him COVID czar. Everything will be centralized under one person who has the respect of both the public health community and the political community." We're a divided country right now. Right now, Tony Fauci [head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] is the closest that we come to that. Are you scared? I'm in the age group that has a one in seven mortality rate if I get it. If you're not worried, you're not paying attention. But I'm not scared. I firmly believe that the steps that we're taking will extend the time that it takes for the virus to make the rounds. I think that, in turn, will increase the likelihood that we will have a vaccine or we will have a prophylactic antiviral in time to cut off, reduce, or truncate the spread. Everybody needs to remember: This is not a zombie apocalypse. It's not a mass extinction event. Should we be wearing masks? The N95 mask itself is extremely wonderful. The pores in the mask are three microns wide. The virus is one micron wide. So you get people who say, well, it's not going to work. But you try having three big, huge football players who are rushing for lunch through a door at lunchtime—they're not going to get through. In the latest data I saw, the mask provided 5x protection. That's really good. But we have to keep the hospitals going and we have to keep the health professionals able to come to work and be safe. So masks should go where they're needed the most: in taking care of patients. How will we know when we're through this? The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious. And instead of saying "No, you can't visit anybody in nursing home," we have a group of people who are certified that they work with elderly and vulnerable people, and nurses who can go back into the hospitals and dentists who can open your mouth and look in your mouth and not be giving you the virus. When those three things happen, that's when normalcy will return. This interview appeared first on Apple News. We need your support to bring the kind of analyses and information Tikkun provides. Click here to make a tax-deductible contribution. Contact Us Tikkun & the Network of Spiritual Progressives 2342 Shattuck Ave #1200 Berkeley, California 94704 (510) 644-1200 magazine@tikkun.org Unsubscribe

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佛光山

All we are is the result of what we have thought, it is founded on our thoughts, it is made up of our thoughts.   --Dhammapada