07 September 2022

The EV future

One reads that Mazda and even Honda have essentially no designs for bespoke electric cars, and both Toyota and Nissan think they're going to sell internal combustion cars as the majority of their vehicles through 2040 in the US. GM and Ford are making more positive statements but so far have failed to deliver EVs in large numbers. Kia and Hyundai have lots of EVs coming down the pike but will be hamstrung by the new laws making rebates unavailable from the US for cars not primarily assembled in North America. Stellantis (which includes Chrysler) is way behind. Which leaves... Chinese manufacturers (at least ten of which are ramping up EV production plans).... like BYD, startups like Canoo, Aptera and Rivian, and, of course, the largest EV maker in the world, Tesla. European manufacturers are only slightly better, and most of their EVs are overpriced in the American market. The world is rushing forward to an electric vehicle dominated transportation economy, and most of the world's auto manufacturers are being caught flat footed. Some, like Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Subaru, Fiat, Citroen (both Stellantis badges) are so far out of the game that they may go bankrupt entirely (although several have parent companies that make things other than cars, so they will probably continue to exist). All the manufacturers that did so will rue the day they bet against electric cars. The ones that don't go bankrupt, that is. Experts are seriously predicting that Toyota and GM, not so long ago the largest automakers in the world, may share less than 10% of the US auto market in a decade if current trends continue. It's beginning to appear that the seemingly almost ridiculous valuation of Tesla at more than 10x the value of GM may be spot on after all. 

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