24 August 2011

Will it really be Perry? and Should we be happy about it?

Is is just me, or should Democrats not be welcoming news that the Republicans seem determined, in recent polling, to dump Mitt and go with the Certifiable Nutcase and Megalomaniac, Rick Perry?

Surely, if they go off the cliff and nominate this guy, regardless of the economy, regardless of disenchantment with his style and even substance, the people will vote to re-elect the sane candidate over this unbelievable lunatic? Surely?

○○○
UPDATE:

I often cross-post to FireDogLake (http://my.firedoglake.com/oldionus). Here are a couple of the comments that were posted to the above: 


Vote Socialist August 24th, 2011 at 3:13 pm «
Why would we want Osterity re-elected? I’m pulling for Mittens; by having a Republican instead of a “Democrat” in the White House, there’d be some opposition to the Austerity Agenda from the Congressional Dems, yet there’s not a dime’s worth of difference between White Romney and Black Romney. Best of both worlds.


Alternatively, there’s the theory that we want the Oristocrats to be humiliated by losing to the most extreme candidate the Rs can nominate. Make the repudiation of the Obama Adminis-Traitor-ion as complete as can be. The bonus here is that Perry/Bachmann/Herman Cain/whoever would tank the economy hard and fast, priming the country for a hard swing to the left in ’16, if not revolution before then. A more extreme idea to be sure, but an argument worth considering.


But if we’re going to elect a Romney next year, I say go for the fresh one, not the one who’s already proven to be a horrible President. No more Black Romney!


○ (Reply )vizmike August 24th, 2011 at 7:26 pm  
«I’m with VoteSocialist above. I’m afraid we have to give up on the Democrats. In fact, the way they have been playing us, I would be so bold as to say our first consideration in 2012 is to UTTERLY DEFEAT Obama. We need to smash these triangulating betrayers who will clearly achieve nothing but worse going forward. We must make clear that they can not succeed electorally without moving dramatically our way. And if their failure to do so means the end of the Democratic Party, well, good riddance. I’m not happy about it, but that’s how I see our situation.  ///
------------------------------

○○○ To which I can only say that the Democrats are in BIG trouble in 2012 if any significant fraction of their committed, progressive base thinks the way these folks do. I admit I "go there" sometimes, myself, out of sheer frustration with what I see as the cluelessness of Washington Democrats, ESPECIALLY the President, who seems completely oblivious to the FACT that Democrats who FIGHT BACK, and who endorse Labor Issues and Core Democratic Values, consistently do better, and in fact are far more likely to DEFEAT Republicans, when compared to Beltway Obama-style Democrats. The President and the Party leadership better wake up pretty damn soon, or 2012 is going to be a disaster.

23 August 2011

Payroll Tax Cut? or "Go Big, Go Long, Go Global"? Both, I guess

The Republicans have now coalesced around not extending the Payroll Tax "holiday" included in the budget deal last December, which is downright weird, unless you accept the fact (as I do) that they basically hate and couldn't care less about the interests of working and Middle Class people, and care only about the interests of the very rich. So a tax cut that only benefits working people? They don't like it, and won't support it. Makes perfect sense.

So now we read about a "full throated" Democratic push to extend this tax cut.

I was dubious about this idea in the first place. Tax cuts... of any kind... are weak stimulus. And I worry that this undercuts the financial strength of Social Security, which only adds fuel to the Republicans' efforts to portray the program as "in trouble" and "in need of reform." This is actually a ridiculous position on its face in light of the actual facts, which are that Social Security is solvent for decades without any changes. But reducing revenue to the Social Security Trust Fund is not the best way to ensure that Social Security remains protected going forward. Obviously.

Given polling that shows that even a significant majority of Republicans favor increasing taxes on the very richest and closing corporate loopholes (like oil, agribusiness, Pharma; tax breaks for offshoring jobs and assets, etc.), I think the Democrats should focus instead on these areas.

But hey, I get it, that the optics of Republicans fighting for what (in their own formulation, as used in the debate about extending the Bush cuts for the richest) is a tax increase, just works for Democrats.

But let's not lose sight of the fact that most people now get it that the Republicans are fighting for the rich to keep their tax breaks, a very unpopular position. Democrats, and the President, have a historic opportunity to portray the Republicans as out of touch with ordinary people, and working for the interests only of the very rich.

E. J. Dionne, writing in the Post yesterday, urged Obama to "Go Big, Go Long, and Go Global," meaning he needs to make his economic proposals into a major program to revamp the entire economy, as soon as possible. Of course the Republicans will fight tooth and nail; they will anyway. But the President needs a real program that would actually work to run on.

The unbelievable extremity of Rick Perry

I find it hard to keep emotion out of politics these days. To me, the mere appearance of Rick Perry makes it glaringly obvious that he is a Grade-A asshole who cares for nothing but his own plutocratic interests. Now (here), he's made it clear he really does, with no hyperbole, endorse reversing over 100 years of progress by turning the clock back in terms of the role of the Federal government to before Teddy Roosevelt.

Somehow, as dumbed down as the electorate is, and notwithstanding Bush's Brain co-author Jim Moore's prediction that he will "waltz to the nomination," I just can't believe that the American people are going to go along with this crap. 

Or, for that matter, that it will be possible for Perry or the Republican party to walk back from this kind of rhetoric in the run-up to the General Election. 

19 August 2011

White Paper on Extraterrestrial Contact

Penn State & NASA have published what I guess you'd call a "White Paper" titled Would Contact with Extraterrestrials Benefit or Harm Humanity • A Scenario Analysis.
Here. 
(pdf)


UPDATE (8/24):
Having now perused this paper, which I linked to out of a strong interest in the subject, I can report that it is highly conventional and not really particularly interesting (in addition to being written in the usual stiff and tedious Academese). It claims to help us "train our minds" to think about what extraterrestrial contact would actually mean, but it doesn't really add anything to the thought process that many have already accomplished in that area.

18 August 2011

Will the president pivot and start blaming the Rightists for the state of the economy and our nation in general?

I have (less and less frequently since 2009) been accused by some fellow Democrats of my acquaintance of giving up on President Obama. People who think like me retort: oh, no, he's given up on us. But I do see a few signs that in small ways, at least, the White House is beginning to realize that they simply HAVE to stop coddling the Rightists, and start blaming them. Politics is not a graduate seminar. What gets said has to be blunt, pointed, and clearly aligned to a particular interest. And for the President, if he wants to be re-elected, which I assume he does, those interests had better start being the interests of Middle Class and working people. And he'd better start making clear what he wants to do, if the people will just give him the means to do it.

I think the president's greatest weaknesses are these:

1.  He has no natural or learned gift for negotiation. He accommodates others' interests in advance, and just thinks "of course they'll agree, because I've already taken their interests into account!" But that's not how it works. The Rightists see this as weakness, and take advantage of it to get MORE of what they want. So far, for the Rightists, this has worked every time. (Shall I name some? How about massive tax cuts in the original stimulus, (even though real economists all agree they're less than half as effective as direct stimulus), taking single payer and then public option off the table without a fight, giving up on Employee Free Choice Act without a fight, caving on the Bush Tax Cuts for the Rich without a fight, and the long, sad, disgraceful unfolding of the Debt Hostage Crisis. Note most of these occurred when the Democrats still had a majority in both Houses).

2.  Once he became president, he turned off his campaign mode. He fails to understand, or if he understands he fails to act on, the principle that public opinion can be changed by direct appeal, and that a sufficient mass of public opinion still matters in this country. What FDR did with the Fireside chats, and what JFK and Reagan were very good at, i.e., directly appealing to the people for support, this president has done sparsely, without real flare or charisma, and without much effect. He simply has to do better, and make this his main job from now until the election.

Can he turn this around? Of course he can. He's shown himself at times in the past to be a very gifted politician and capable of changing his approach. But whether he will do what needs to be done to consolidate the American people behind him for major Democratic victories in '12, or not, remains to be seen.  

17 August 2011

Michael Keegan on Rick Perry

Michael Keegan, of People for the American Way, has an excellent post up summing up the revolting development that is Rick Perry. Here.

Spitzer's advice to Obama

Never mind any quibbles over the fine details, Elliot Spitzer's advice to the president here  (to require taxpayer subsidized banks to cut upside down mortgages and to free up money from foreign wars to create jobs)...is spot-on, and the White House should call him in right now to discuss it, then act on it as quickly as humanly possible, all the while touting that the president is doing something to help the economy, while the "DO-NOTHING 112th CONGRESS" is dithering (echoing Truman in 1948).


 

Repubs might nominate Perry? Ryan? Hmmm.

I have to admit that I am not entirely upset at the prospect that Perry may overwhelm the current field among the Republicans (not really convinced that's so, but anyway); or that Ryan supposedly might enter the race. I really believe both of these guys, in their very different ways, are inherently unelectable to the presidency.

It's a sad fact that Obama may only be re-electable if the Republicans nominate someone totally unacceptable to the American people, but it looks like they just might.

16 August 2011

Resisting the Rightist Takeover

My new office sign:

DEFEAT of the RIGHTIST 
MINORITY TAKEOVER
of AMERICA will mean 
we have to be prepared to
TAKE TO THE STREETS
in NONVIOLENT PROTEST.
Believe it.
This isn't hyperbole. These people (Ryan, Bachmann, Perry, McConnell, Boehner, Cantor, you name 'em) will stop at nothing, they care not a whit that they are in the minority on almost all major policy matters, and they have consolidated power due in part to congenital weakness in the President and the Democratic party. I'm convinced we will not be able to defeat them without our own Tahrir Square... and it will be coming. 

 

15 August 2011

Buffett: 'Stop coddling the Super-Rich.'

I find it MOST TELLING that Warren Buffett, one of the richest people in the World, said quite definitively recently that the US should raise taxes on the super-rich, and that such a move would not harm investments.

See this.

Gradually, gradually, the people are waking up to the fact that when the agenda driven Republicans make the opposite claim, they are not expressing honest opinions. They are lying.

13 August 2011

Could living things on Earth be descended, in part, from alien life? And some inferences

Could living things on Earth be descended, in part, from alien life? 
 
I've been pondering the whole concept of panspermia and whether it is possible to conclude with reasonable certainty that all life on Earth is of a single origin. 
 
Perhaps my kind reader will remember ~15 years ago, when scientists rather prematurely announced the discovery of Martian fossil microorganisms in a tektite from Mars. (Which led to the speculation that if life could transfer from the Martian orbit to Earth, the more likely direction 4 billion years ago was from Mars to Earth, so maybe Earth life descended from Martian life?) You'll notice, though, that there was hardly any mention of the possibility that Earth life today is a mix of life having separate planetary origins. And this is because there is a scientific paradigm, so far pretty much unshaken, that the genetic code of Earth, and some of its expressions (such as the specific forms of pigment molecules, like chlorophyll and cytochrome), are in some sense arbitrary; i.e., equally likely biochemical processes could have achieved the same or roughly equivalent functionalities, for example, using different base combinations for DNA, or even if DNA exactly in the form it is found on Earth is universally optimal, surely some of the early-evolved and nearly universal proteins found in every living cell on Earth are not; they are simply contingently evolved. In other words, they could just as well have been different—not radically different, but perceptibly different. But they're not. And the simplest, most likely explanation for everything sharing something that's just the way it is by happenstance is that they all share a common origin. All the biochemical markers, then, point to a single common ancestor. 
 
When it was discovered some years back that what had always been referred to as bacteria were actually two entirely separately evolved lines of similar-morphology organisms, with some differences in biochemistry and genetic markers indicating extremely ancient divergence (the Archaea and the Eubacteria), there was a flurry of discussion in the pop sci rags about the possibility that one or the other of them originated elsewhere, and that we do in fact live in a multiple-origin biosphere. 
 
But from what I understand, those who really understand the molecular chemistry involved (which of course I don't at all), quickly squelched that controversy by demonstrating to any reasonable person's satisfaction that the Archaea and the Eubacteria clearly had many contingent elements in common and were all but unquestionably the descendants of a common ancestor. All the serious discussions of the origin of life question seem to agree that all the evidence so far points to the conclusion that all terrestrial life shares a common ancestor; best guess for time frame is more than 3 but less than 4 billion years b.p. There are some outliers (only among the microbes), which are probably remote isolates of rather early populations that struck out in a different direction from most other life, but in a large set of parameters, every cell shares a significant set of common markers. 
 
So, what does this say about panspermia, or the possibility, often touted in science fiction, that in the long history of life on Earth (at least 12 Galactic revolutions of the Sun (=~250 m.y.)), perhaps there had been visitors... whether sentient or incidental (riding on interstellar flotsam), that penetrated the biosphere of Earth. 
 
What can a rational person actually infer about that? 
 
It seems obvious to me, first, that it cannot be categorically ruled out. A meteorite that entered the Solar system from another star system (unlikely, but not spectacularly so), could have intersected Earth's orbit and survived reentry to crash onto the surface, somewhere in all that time. If it had spores or dormant organisms, they could have survived. This, indeed, could conceivably have been the source of the first life on Earth, although that would require a remarkable coincidence and so falls in the category of special pleading insofar as it should be thought of as a theory. 
 
It's also possible that this could have happened and whatever was on the rock just didn't survive. That eventuality is not particularly interesting: it can't be ruled out, but has no real consequences and so leads nowhere. 
 
It's conceivable, although less and less likely as research into the biochemistry of life gets more and more complete, that this happened, and alternate origin life is here, just not yet discovered. 
 
And then there's the possibility that alien intelligent beings traveled here at some time in that vast expanse of time (after all, from the point of view of the likelihood of time enough for intelligent life to evolve, the universe has been more or less as it is now for much if not all of that time). Perhaps these visitors, finding a world already teeming with life, prudently decided to quarantine themselves so as not to contaminate our world. This too, is intriguing, but unprovable, at least for now, and not supported by any evidence, Nazca megaglyphs and whatnot notwithstanding. (The whole popular meme of "ancient astronauts" is a house of cards of pure silliness; if you don't agree, I'll leave it to you to investigate). Anyway, if alien visitation ever did happen, just by the laws of chance, it was probably many millions of years ago. 
 
But what did not happen, I think can reasonably be inferred from the terrestrial biological evidence, is that alien visitors arrived here, walked around in the open air, allowed our planet to interact with the organisms of their native biosphere, and then left. If that had happened, to a pretty high probability I'm pretty sure, there would have been contamination, and some of that alien life would have likely survived here. It might have overwhelmed our biosphere, or, possibly, simply co-existed, evolving perhaps into forms that filled niches to which its particular predispositions fitted it. But there is simply no evidence of this; and from what I understand, if it had happened, there would be. We could tell if a type of fungus or a type of bacteria were descended from a different origin of life than ours. 
 
I suppose you could say, well, maybe life here originated there, but that just takes us back to panspermia, and it seems to me that just defers the origin question anyway. Somewhere, somehow, life had to have originated, and clearly there just hasn't been enough time for life to have originated somewhere else and filled the universe, or even the Galaxy, through panspermia... unless directed by super beings with nearly divine powers... in which case, why in Their name, would they be so secretive? It just doesn't add up, in my mind. 
 
So this brings me to several inferential conclusions:
  1. Life on Earth originated here, and has never mixed with alien life. To a fair certainty.
  2. Intelligent aliens have never visited Earth, or, if they have, they quarantined themselves and left no biological traces.
  3. Since, if spacefaring intelligent civilizations were extremely common, No. 2 above would seem rather unlikely, they are, and have throughout the history of life on Earth, been rare. (This inference requires some background on the evolution of intelligence and the likelihood of space travel, etc., which I've discussed before on the Gyromantic Informicon; what I am referring to as unlikely is that if there had been a lot of visits, they wouldn't all have been successfully quarantined).
I think these are the only reasonable conclusions from the facts. 

Any contrarian comments would be most welcome.  

UPDATE:

In defense of my dismissal above of the idea of "ancient astronauts," I add the following: 

First, although it is conceivable that alien spacecraft could actually enter the atmosphere without contaminating the Earth with alien life (had such contamination occurred,  it would almost certainly have left detectable traces)... it does not appear to me to be likely that any significant intervention in human affairs could have occurred without actual contact with extraterrestrial living things. Which, I reiterate, would almost certainly have left detectable biochemical traces. As Sagan says, the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence, but the burden of proof is on those making the claim. I submit that since, despite substantial ongoing biochemical research for over a century, no hint of extraterrestrial biochemistry in Earth's biosphere has ever been demonstrated, it is reasonable, using Occam's Razor, to state that to a reasonable certainty there has been no mixing of extraterrestrial life with Earth life at any time.

The next point is that the first point implies, at the very least, that extraterrestrial visits to Earth, which would have at least some probability of introducing such contamination, throughout the history of life on this planet, must have been quite rare, if they occurred at all. Something which has some non-zero probability becomes a near-certainty, given enough time; and if the contamination had ever occurred, it would still be detectable, in all likelihood; there's little reason to just assume that the extraterrestrial life would have died out, every time. So there are three things: (1) a posited nonzero chance of visits, (2) a deduced nonzero chance of contamination, and (3) a deduced relatively high chance that if contamination had occurred, the extraterrestrial life would have survived in some form and would remain detectable and would have been detected by now. Even if you estimate high for (1), low for (2), and minimize (3), either by saying contamination would likely not have occurred or that it wouldn't necessarily have been detected, if you give any reasonable values to these three factors, a large number of visits necessarily implies contamination, and that just does not appear to be the case from all available evidence.

The final point is just how statistically unlikely it is that, in the vast span of Earth's history, one or more of the necessarily small number of visits
(given the first two points) that may have occurred would have occurred recently. Let's stipulate that the likelihood of visitation in any given ten million year period throughout the history of life on Earth has to be treated as approximately equal, let's say x% chance in any given ten million year slot; you can say whether x is vanishingly small or substantial, it doesn't matter for this point. Now, why do I say this? Because the universe as a whole is approximately 13 billion years old, and all galaxies are roughly the same age. There was an early period, during which most stars were mostly hydrogen and helium, but the roughly "current epoch," in which stellar evolution has led to abundant metals and the possibility of planetary environments conducive to life, is at minimum several billion years in duration, so the chance of a civilization achieving technology comparable or superior to ours at any time during the history of life on Earth has to be considered to be relatively constant over time. I don't see how this can really be argued against.

The chance of visitation in 3 billion years is then 300x, which if x is high enough, could approach certainty if you assign any substantial value to x, but that chance is spread equally over the entire time. Since there is no actual evidence that this has ever happened, the chance that it likely happened anytime in human history has to be deemed to be exceedingly small. In other words, let's say there were 10 visits to Earth by aliens in 3 billion years, at random. Just statistically, the chance that even one of them occurred in the last 20,000 years is ~0.007%. Not very realistic odds.

I rest my case.
 

A FINAL COMMENT 
16.Aug.11
   • Just in case anyone has read this and wondered why anyone would care about any of this, since it's all so removed from our everyday concerns, apart from the pure intellectual curiosity of it, which I believe is essential to the survival of the human race, my answer is this:  we have to conclude, as the least unlikely eventuality, that we are effectively on our own as a species. There will likely be no deus ex machina from older and wiser predecessor extraterrestrials, and, as I went into in great detail earlier on the Gyromantic, we are not at any time in the foreseeable future going to have an economically viable alternative habitat to our own Earth. So we better the hell preserve and protect her and make sure she remains habitable. That is probably the essential lesson of our time. 

11 August 2011

Drew Westen in NYT: What happened to Obama?

Drew Westen's piece in the NYT is an absolute must-read. It is a chronicle of failure, of good intentions and missed opportunities. But, primarily, it is a tale of bitter tragedy, because we had a brief moment of real opportunity, but it turned out the man we elected just didn't have the ability to bend the arc of history, to use one of his favorite phrases. Now we are left to try desperately to pick up the pieces.

Some will try to defend the president and say this is too harsh a judgment, but I think not.

10 August 2011

Is Obama even a Democrat?

I thought about writing a post with that title... listing all the policy positions Obama has staked out since the 2010 mid-terms, and how almost all of them are the positions of a conservative Republican, not a Democrat.

But I am thinking better of it. After last night's disappointing showing in Wisconsin (yes, the politically savvy will understand that two out of six recall wins in heavily Republican districts is actually remarkable progress, but the media takeaway is "Democrats fail to take Wisconsin Senate back from GOP)... it's increasingly clear to me that while those of us who adhere to core Democratic values MUST put all the pressure we can on the president to change course and recognize that it is precisely by defending those principles that Obama will gain over the support of independents he needs to be re-elected, we also need to recognize that one of the lessons to be learned from the more politically competent Republicans is that we must direct our energies to defeating them and their ideas, not to tearing down our own leaders.

So, my criticisms of Obama and other Democrats who seem to think that drifting ever rightward towards the ephemeral, or rather, non-existent, "magic Center" is a recipe for victory, will be directed to convincing them that, in fact, it is the opposite: a virtual guarantee of defeat.

09 August 2011

Financial Gyrations

Dean Baker, a progressive economist, referred to S&P, saying "Everybody knows they're a clown outfit," and pointed out that the downgrading of US debt has not been a significant factor in the sell-off prior to today's partial rebound. He noted that most of the money taken out of the stock market went straight into US Treasury bonds, so the downgrade was obviously not having much of an effect.

So what was?

The run on sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain, Europe's fourth and fifth largest economies, that's what. And if the ECB doesn't pour a tonne of money into the Euro system, it could collapse. Then we'd see a financial crisis at least equal to 2008-2009.

The good news is that the ECB probably has no choice but to do just that.

04 August 2011

Michael Lind on the Tea Party phenomenon

Michael Lind, writing in Salon, (here) makes out an excellent case that while the Tea Party trots out its few northern and Midwestern members and portrays itself as ordinary folks angry over Wall Street and ineffective government, its actual political caucus is basically the same old obstructionist White Southern anti-Federalists, who really don't give a damn about the United States (my slant). Which is why they are perfectly willing to play brinksmanship and use terrorist tactics to extort their own way on policy.

03 August 2011

Cantor: forget about Medicare

Satan's amanuensis (aka Eric Cantor) is now promising young Americans that the Evil Ones who Rule will slash Medicare. See this. The colorful rhetoric is intentional. These people have declared that they have no intention to compromise, and that they will use any means, including outright extortion based on their willingness to endanger the economic security of our nation, to get the Minoritarian policy demands enacted. But there will be a backlash, I am sure of it. And here's my response: 
No, you wretched excuse for a human being. You are wrong. This will not stand. We will eliminate you from power and will raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, eliminate tax loopholes and havens for big business, restore jobs to raise more revenue, and keep our promises to the American people. It is you who are headed for the dustbin of history.
To this goal I pledge my life, my fortune and my sacred honor.
At least they're being honest about what they intend to do. Gives us a good target to aim at.

02 August 2011

My office sign

I put this up in my office: 


The Rightists used

Kidnapper Tactics

to hold America’s economic security hostage  
despite large majorities against their policies.

There’s a word for that:

UNPATRIOTIC.


Demand that the President and Congress

fight back…

VOTE OUT THE RIGHT WING IN ‘12

Olbermann in fine fettle

Keith Olbermann's commentary on the Extortion Catastrophe is dead-on, including the outrage.

Video here or here.

Here's the close:

Where is the outrage to come from?

From you!

It will do no good to wait for the politicians to suddenly atone for their sins. They are too busy trying to keep their jobs, to do their jobs.

It will do no good to wait for the media to suddenly remember its origins as the 'free press,' the watchdog of democracy envisioned by Jefferson. They are too busy trying to get exclusive DETAILS about exactly how the bankrobbers emptied the public's pockets, to give a damn about telling anybody what they looked like, or which way they went.

It will do no good to wait for the apolitical public to get a clue. They can't hear the clue through all the chatter and scandal and diversion and delusion and illusion.

The betrayal of what this nation is supposed to be about did not begin with this deal and it surely will not end with this deal. There is a tide pushing back the rights of each of us, and it has been artificially induced by union-bashing and the sowing of hatreds and fears, and now this ever-more-institutionalized economic battering of the average American. It will continue, and it will crush us, because those who created it are organized and unified and hell-bent.

And the only response is to be organized and unified and hell-bent in return. We must find again the energy and the purpose of the 1960's and early 1970's and we must protest this deal and all the God damn deals to come, in the streets. We must arise, non-violently but insistently. General strikes, boycotts, protests, sit-ins, non-cooperation take-overs - but modern versions of that resistance, facilitated and amplified, by a weapon our predecessors did not have: the glory that is instantaneous communication.

It is from an old and almost clichéd motion picture that the wisdom comes: First, you've got to get mad.

I cannot say to you, meet here or there at this hour or that one, and we will peacefully break the back of government that now exists merely to get its functionaries re-elected. But I can say that the time is coming when the window for us to restore the control of our government to our selves will close, and we had damn well better act before then.

Because this deal is more than a tipping point in which the government goes from defending the safety net to gutting it. This is wrong, and while our government has now declared that it has given up the concept of right-and-wrong, you and I… have not, and will not do so.

Good night, and good luck.

I say, bravo, Keith, and let us all commit: we will stake our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor to restoring our government to responsiveness to the people, and wresting it from the special interests who believe they own it, and who care nothing whatsoever either for the will or for the interests of the American people who are its true owners.

01 August 2011

TPM points out how it coulda been worse

This piece in TPM attempts to parse the Extortion Agreement with a thesis that it has some "silver lining." I'm not buying it. We could've done a whole hell of a lot better with some real leadership and willingness to take risks (especially had Obama played the 14th Amendment card). It's bad, really bad, and pointing out that it could have been even worse doesn't really help anything.

I say, VOTE NO, and make the Republicans pass this stinking mess without Democratic votes in the House, and with damn few in the Senate. I'm not naive enough to think a filibuster by Democrats is even conceivable, but I hope the Republicans are forced to sweat out passage in both houses, because they got just about everything they could have hoped for, so they should take the blame. Because blame there will be. And the president will be unable to escape his share.

And now what?

OK, this extortion catastrophe is probably going to pass and we have to go on from here.

What Progressives now need to do is regroup and declare a manifesto.

We must DEMAND from Democrats and President Obama that they commit NOW to fighting what the Minoritarian Rightists have extorted from our broken system, and reversing these policies immediately after the 2012 election, if we can succeed in regaining the House, keeping the Senate, and re-electing the Appeaser in Chief. Who must un-earn that moniker and start leading rather than capitulating time and time again.

I am a lone voice, hardly a whisper in a torrent of voices, all clamoring for attention. But in coming days or weeks I will lay out what I see as the essential argument for Progressives, which we have to direct at the Democrats, because our system, after Citizens United especially, simply will not tolerate a Third Party.

In a nutshell, the people are by and large with us, but they need the issues to be framed and presented with conviction, and their passions must be inflamed to get out the vote. We must clearly articulate how it is that the Republicans are extortionists, who have stolen these policy changes from a constituency that, by large majorities, opposes them. We must clearly, simply, and succinctly demonstrate to the vast majority of Americans that the Rightist Elite is not on their side, and that their interests, and those of their elderly relatives, and their kids' futures, are being stolen from them by the ultra-rich and corporate interests and their obedient servants in Washington, who have demonstrated a stark lack of basic patriotism and the willingness to jeopardize the economic security of our nation to get their Minoritarian way. This cannot stand... we must fight with all resources we have to overcome this usurpation of democracy.

We can win in 2012, and we can reverse this horrible policy shift. But we must have commitment, including from Obama. Without it, we fail, and he will almost certainly lose. And if that happens, the catastrophe we face now will seem mild. 

Please read Krugman on the Default Extortion Catastrophe

PLEASE read Paul Krugman today.
[LINK]

The standard dismissal of Krugman is that he's "shrill," which is nothing but a schoolyard taunt. The fact is that everything he says here is sound, and the news is pretty much all bad.

E-mail to my Congressman: VOTE NO

My e-mail to my Congressman:

Dear Congressman Berman:

I strongly urge a NO vote. This is not a deal, it is a surrender. It does not avert disaster, it IS disaster. The House must defeat this horrible scheme. The president must show real leadership and invoke the 14th Amendment. Government by hostage crisis and extortion must not be capitulated to. Thank you.

David S

UPDATE:  Congressman Berman, unlike Henry Waxman, voted Yes. Needless to say, I'm disappointed in him, but he's been pretty much a party hack for some years now. 

Final Verdict on Debt Deal

Krugman in today's Times is correct: this "deal" is not a deal, but a surrender; it does not avert disaster, it is disaster. Obama's presidency is a failure. I feel quite sure this will be the verdict of history.

I think the declaration of Victory by Boehner and the (Egad!) endorsement by Grover Norquist just about says it all: this president is now to be known as the Capitulator-in-Chief. Or maybe Neville Obama.

31 July 2011

We must now draw the line in the sand: there will be no cuts to Social Security, Medicare or Medicaid or we will march on Washington and shut down the government

How about it, Progressive America?

Debt Deal Horrible for Progressives, America

The so-called debt deal being reported at this moment (Sunday morning) as "in the works", to ...
  • turn over the essential governance of our nation by elected representatives to a designated commission that arbitrarily contains equal representation of both parties, thus guaranteeing that it will not be representative of the demonstrated wishes of the majority of the public
  • force massive cuts in essential spending when it's obvious to everyone with a whit of understanding of how the economy actually works that our economy is slipping, at best, into a secondary recession and more stimulus is what's needed
  • do absolutely nothing to shift the imbalance in revenue to force a larger share to be paid by the wealthiest individuals and by big corporations
  • do nothing to ensure that outsize military spending will bear the brunt of any cuts...
...may achieve the short term goal of avoiding catastrophic default, but it's clearly a disaster for progressives and for America.

I'll just say it: Obama has again betrayed his core supporters, and his re-election is in jeopardy. When, in the last few days especially, it became clear that the Rightists are playing a terrorist game, i.e., holding our entire nation's welfare hostage for their own minoritarian policy demands; he should have taken the bold step of invoking the 14th Amendment, in order to prevent just this catastrophe. The fact that he refused to take that courageous step, to me, guarantees that he will fail ultimately to reverse the trend towards Rightist control of America, and will go down in history as a closer analog to Herbert Hoover than to FDR.

Now what? Well, a long slog, and a great fight, but you cannot fool everyone forever, and I still maintain that the essential elitism and arrogance of the Right is slowly but surely dawning on even the dumbest and most lied to in America, and the populace will not stand for it forever.

29 July 2011

Amazon will not oppose nationally regulated requirement to collect state taxes?!

It begins to look like there is a growing consensus that online retailers like Amazon.com and J & R Music World should be compelled to collect state sales taxes; and Amazon has even signalled that it will not oppose national legislation to make this happen.

See this.

Sanders: Why Americans are so angry

Sen. Bernie Sanders (*my hero*), has written a piece on Huff Post which should be required reading:  "Why Americans are So Angry." (Here).

The unreality only deepens

Now we read where Boehner is adding in a balanced budget amendment to his supposed "compromise" bill. The unreality only gets deeper and deeper.

To my mind, although it is of course somewhat problematical, the President now has no choice but to say:  

"Look, for generations, ever since 1917, the raising of the debt ceiling has been pro forma. Now, the Republicans have decided to try to hold the entire country hostage, at the risk of destroying our economy, in an attempt to extort unpopular policy changes. But the Constitution is actually quite clear: the debt of the United States cannot be questioned. I will see to it, as the President of the United States, that our government pays its bills, no matter what. Now, I call upon Congress to take responsible action to avoid any conflict over this matter, but that is my declaration to the American people: we will not default, we will pay our bills, and I will see to it by whatever means are necessary. Period."

If this president had the forcefulness and will to say this, right now, I believe it would redound to his credit and would avert this manufactured crisis completely and finally. 

28 July 2011

Myths, reality, and non-despair for progressives

I am hardly alone in being absolutely flummoxed by the one-sidedness of the media coverage of the so-called debt crisis. Not to mention the unbelievable supinity of the Democrats, and especially the president, in capitulating, not only to policy extortion by the Rightists at every turn, but to the very framing of the issue by them.

Look, it’s quite simple. As Zaid Jilani writes in thinkprogress.com [here]... if we were to simply get beyond the mythology of Washington, which is totally beholden to the interests of the richest Americans and corporations, and restore the tax code of the 1960s (adjusted for inflation), the debt would disappear in a trice, and we would have plenty of money to rebuild our infrastructure and restore full employment. These are simple economic facts, of which I am confident that if the American people were told the truth in plain English, there would be overwhelming support for just this change. 

The entire concept that we have a "debt crisis," or that we can't afford the basic programs of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, still less the major infrastructure and renewable energy investments that we desperately need to restore our economy to full jobs and productivity, is just false. These statements, which you shamefully hear from Democrats as well as Republicans, and which are all over the media as if they were self-evident truths, are, in fact, deliberate lies, which would only be true if preceded by the qualifying clause, "If we absolutely must keep the enormous disparity of income and lopsided tax system favoring big corporations and the super-rich intact as it currently is...."   But Progressives, and especially our supposedly Progressive president, need to say this: "No, that's not so... we can easily afford these things if only we change the unfair system in place now and make Big Corporations and the Super-Rich pay their fair share."

But the other overriding reality is that in 1955 the top 400 Americans had an average income of $13 million in 2007 dollars and paid 52% of it in Federal Income Tax. In 2007 (the most recent year for which figures are available), the richest 400 had an average income of $170 million and paid less than 15% of it in taxes. These people, and the corporations they run, own the government and manipulate it for their interests. Only when the People take to the streets and demand change will there be change, because this, i.e., nonviolent struggle, is the only effective way to battle entrenched control of political systems, as Gene Sharp, the guru of nonviolent struggle, has masterfully explained. But it’s also true, as in 1933-34, that when things get blatant enough and bad enough,  the tenor of politics can change in a very short time, so there’s no reason for despair.

25 July 2011

Responding to Obama's call

The president has it wrong, again. The American people don't want Congress to COMPROMISE with the unpatriotic, mendacious rightist zealots on the Right. We want the president to use the 14th Amendment to STAND DOWN the Republicans' hostage crisis on the debt and force reform of taxes and end subsidies to corporations; and force NO CUTS to the essential social programs.

America has no debt or deficit crisis. It has a jobs crisis. The President needs to focus on this issue, and say clearly that THERE WILL BE NO DEFAULT period, so forget that, we must move on. The Republicans have no interest in good faith negotiation; they are like the Nazis in 1933... they want to force their unpopular policies and consolidate power regardless of the will of the people. We NEED the president to be the Champion of the People.

The hour is late, but there's no time like NOW for the president to show historic leadership.

24 July 2011

The president, AT LONG LAST, must stand up for Democratic values (e-mail to the White House)

Been on vacation through the last couple of horrible weeks in American politics. Here's my response to the most recent events (e-mail to the White House) :

This idea of a "Super Congress" is not only unconstitutional and antithetical to the very principles of Democracy, it is a very, very bad idea for Democrats. The president must take decisive action, and state flatly that there will be no default on the debt, invoking thereby the 14th Amendment powers. Then he must fight like hell to preserve the programs that are the very hallmark of Democratic policy: Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, and infrastructure investment to create new jobs, which will mean new revenue and the end of this Depression and its revenue crisis. No other policies will work. The President must, somewhere in his conciliatory heart, know this is true. We are demanding that he stand strong for Democratic values at long last. The time for compromise with the downright UNPATRIOTIC zealots in the other party is past. We, the Democrats who elected Pres. Obama on a promise of POSITIVE change, demand a major course correction and that the president finally stand up for what we elected him to do.

Thank you.

08 July 2011

Krugman: "Let's be frank" (about Obama's failure to stand up for Democratic values!)

Paul Krugman has it exactly right in his op-ed in the Times today:

"Let’s be frank. It’s getting harder and harder to trust Mr. Obama’s motives in the budget fight, given the way his economic rhetoric has veered to the right."

Link to article here

07 July 2011

Bring back the guillotines

If the Republicans keep up this kind of pure crap that 95% of the public now sees through:
Can it be long before we hear outcries to bring back the guillotines?

06 July 2011

Yet another e-mail to the White House on the Debt Crisis and the so-called "Nuclear Option"

I urge Pres. Obama to indeed "invoke the nuclear option" of Article IV of the 14th Amendment with regard to the Republican extortion tactics and manufactured "debt crisis." This is pure blackmail, and these people care less about their country and its economic health than they do about extorting political advantage. At the very least, the president will have succeeded in deferring the issue, and deferring artificially created crises is sometimes a way of resolving them, because the whole psychological dynamic will have changed. The president needs to go on television and explain to the American people just what the Republicans are trying to do, why it's bad for America, why it's contrary to what polls show the great majority of Americans want (i.e., preservation of Medicare and Social Security, and focus on jobs, not the deficit in a time of Recession), and he needs to ASK FOR THE PEOPLE'S SUPPORT. This will work, and is a much better strategy than trying to negotiate from a position well inside the "enemy turf" of a manufactured "deficit crisis," when the REAL crisis is the lack of jobs. More jobs = more revenue = deficit problem solved. The president needs to make this crystal clear so that everyone in the country who pays any attention AT ALL to public affairs understands it. Thank you.
David Studhalter

01 July 2011

My letter as a Californian to Amazon.com

Amazon.com
Corporate Relations
1200 12th Ave., Ste. 1200
Seattle, WA    98144 

re:   Sales Tax Issue

To whom it may concern:

Allow me to begin this letter by pointing out that I am a very good customer of Amazon.com (Amazon Prime), purchasing several hundred dollars’ worth of merchandise, at a minimum, each year. I have become accustomed, and appreciative, of the efficiency and convenience Amazon offers its customers. One of the beguiling aspects of online purchasing for many folks has always been that it was a great deal to be able to avoid sales taxes.

I have, however, recently come to the realization that this is profoundly mistaken. It is human nature not to voluntarily pay taxes; taxes are a price of civilization, not a voluntary donation. But that does not make it legitimate to participate in schemes which deprive states of a large share of commercial revenues which under former circumstances would have been collectible as a matter of course.

As everyone knows, many states in the United States, in the wake of the Wall-Street caused financial collapse and Depression (calling it what it is), are in desperate financial condition. My state of California is in one of the worst situations in the entire nation.

As you of course know, our state has decided to try to force the issue of collection of sales taxes on online purchases from Amazon and other online retailers which have significant business connections to the state. In an attempt to circumvent this (despite having falsely claimed in the past that the sales tax issue was not a major factor in their marketing strategy), Amazon has said it will sever ties to various affiliated agents and entities in order to maintain what, in my view, is tantamount to a legal fiction that they do not do business in California and therefore cannot be forced to pay sales taxes.

The fact is that the era when online businesses needed special considerations, to build what were initially fragile and unprofitable business systems, are long over. Amazon has been instrumental in the demise of brick and mortar independent booksellers, and more recently, Borders. That’s just a fact; for good or ill. But the rationale for a major tax break, if it once existed, has ceased to exist, and the needs of society for effective commercial revenue streams in order to fund the essential services provided by states must take precedence.

For this reason, I urge you, as a good corporate citizen, to change your policy, and to accept the right of the states to impose sales taxes on online purchases rather than pursuing a policy that amounts to evasion of the rightful burden of sharing in the cost of government. After all, the taxes are actually levied upon the customers in the states where they reside, and it is only a question of whether you, as a retailer, are required to collect those taxes.

By now, the convenience and other efficiencies of online commerce have established themselves. Of course, since Amazon is able, through arguably legal tax evasion, to offer a substantial price advantage over in-state sources (of whichever respective state may be at issue), there would be some impact on the vaunted “bottom line.” But this is an issue of fundamental fair dealing and the duty of all citizens to pay the fair share of the cost of maintaining the essential services of our states. All businesses are entitled to a level playing field, but that translates to the equally valid principle that no businesses are entitled to structural advantages based on arbitrary considerations which give them an unfair advantage. When online retailing was a novelty and a tiny fraction of commerce, it didn’t matter so much and no one made too much of an issue of it. But that time has past.

I believe that it ultimately comes down to a moral issue. We must all pay (and online retailers must refrain from enabling customers not to pay) our fair share, or we are in default of our moral and legal obligations as honest citizens. While individuals cannot be expected to go out of their way to voluntarily pay taxes, corporate citizens have an obligation to do business ethically and in a manner that is consistent with good corporate citizenship. The current tax policies of Amazon.com, in my view, completely fail this test and must be changed.  

I request the favor of a reply. Thank you.

Another message to White House on "Debt Crisis"

The president's press conference earlier this week was an OK start, but please read Talkingpointsmemo.com today "What's Wrong with this Picture." The fact is that large majorities of the electorate agree that taxes need to go up for the very rich, and tax loopholes for corporations need to be closed. The vast majority say that ANY cuts to Social Security are EXTREMELY unpopular. And it's clear that most people don't really understand what it means to "raise the debt limit," so polling showing a plurality "against" that are essentially meaningless. But Josh Marshall is right. The Administration and Congressional Democrats MUST stop giving in to the hostage mentality of the Republicans. They must use whatever options, including Constistutional power to protect the full faith and credit of the debt, and TAKING THE MESSAGE DIRECTLY to the people, to force the Republicans to back down; or, failing that, to simply not give in to them. The President can and must protect the integrity of the debt, and he needs to assure financial markets that that WILL HAPPEN no matter what. This will take away the extortion power of the unpatriotic and undemocratic leadership of the Republican party, which is willing to play a dangerous game with the economic health of the entire nation and the ability of our nation's government to function.

Thank you.

30 June 2011

Glenn Beck ba-bye

If you ever found yourself saying "Please God, make Glenn Beck go away," (or Rush Limbaugh, but that's another matter)... it looks like the prayers of who knows how many thousands have been answered, and the Beckster is finally being dragged away from television. (At least TV that anyone watches; his radio show being another story).

Somehow I think even a paranoid megalomaniac like Beck, despite his weird attraction for some folks out there in the Greatland, can't pull off his own network. Even his counterpart Keith Olbermann had to take refuge in an existing Network that actually had a rational plan for ultimately justifying its existence. (And of course, Olbermann actually has something to say that makes sense on a daily basis).

I feel fairly confident that Glenn Beck will now begin a long and richly deserved fadeout.

29 June 2011

Democrats should say: Per Constitution: Debt Ceiling is unconstitutional so pound sand

If the Democrats, and especially the president, were really serious about challenging the insane Republican attempt to extort unpopular plutocratic policy concessions by threatening to allow the US to default on the debt, they would embrace this constitutional argument that the debt ceiling is unconstitutional, and just tell them to pound sand. 

[(Ryan Grim, in Huffington Post, interviewed on Countdown June 28 by Keith Olbermann)]

See my FDL post

28 June 2011

TODAY's e-mail to the White House: ASK THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR SUPPORT


The president needs to give a big speech as soon as possible, in which he directly accuses the Republican leadership of trying to hold our entire nation hostage, risking the economic calamity that would result from a default on the debt to try to extort extremely unpopular policies from the White House and the rest of Congress.

He should lay out just what’s at stake, just how calamitous a default would be, and just how reckless and undemocratic the Republicans are being, threatening our whole country with economic disaster to get their way.

Then he should lay out what it is they want… things that are extremely unpopular by all recent polls: extended tax cuts for multimillionaires and billionaires, no increase in taxes for hedge fund managers who pay a lower tax rate than their secretaries, deep cuts to Medicare and other essential programs, on the backs of old people and the middle class, plus no revenue solutions at all, not even cuts to unneeded oil industry subsidies or changes to other corporate tax breaks and giveaways, and no significant military cuts.

He should say that his administration and the Democrats in Congress are trying to strengthen and preserve the Middle Class in this country, while the Republicans are doing everything they can, even threatening the destruction of our economy, to preserve the extreme wealth and power of the richest Americans and corporate interests; even opposing changes which would encourage employers to keep jobs here in America and sensible cost controls for medical care to rein in the cost of insurance and Medicare.

He should say the Republicans are not being honest with the American people. They are not doing a thing to help out the Middle Class, but are working only for the very rich and powerful corporations, and they oppose the measures in the area of infrastructure development and jobs programs designed to get America working again. Emphasize (use Ross Perot pie charts, for Heavens’ sake!) how American middle class and working peoples’ wages have been flat, while the richest have gotten richer and richer, and it’s time to restore some fundamental fairness. Show (with charts) how just restoring the Bush tax cuts for the richest and some sensible cost controls on medical reimbursements would erase the deficit. Show (again with charts) how some judicious borrowing for jobs programs now would increase revenues, get America working again, and actually help eliminate the deficit more quickly, whereas huge cuts in public sector jobs proposed by the Republicans would just make matters worse.

Then directly face the American people and ask them for their support. Ask them to write to their Congressman (give them a way to do this, right then and there) and DEMAND that they vote to end the debt ceiling and cooperate with the president to get this job done NOW.

Thank you.

27 June 2011

My e-mail to the White House: THIS TIME, call their bluff!

My e-mail to the White House:

We Democrats absolutely DEMAND that the president call the bluff of the Republican leadership which is so obviously trying to hold the entire nation hostage over the debt ceiling, despite the fact that the great majority of the American people DO NOT WANT cuts to important social programs and DO WANT significant increases to make the very wealthy pay their fair share!  Please follow Bernie Sanders' advice and DO NOT give in to this bluff! The Bush tax cuts for the very wealthy must be brought to an end as soon as possible. If the president were to go on television and explain, just as Sen. Sanders has done, just what the Republicans are trying to do TO our country, and the public will rally in support... but if he caves in to them YET again, he will own the consequences and could even lose the election.

Please! This is the time for some spine!

25 June 2011

Besan and Almond Flour Bread Machine Yeast Bread Low Carb Recipe

Here.

Or, here:
dry
2 T flax seed whole
2 T ground psyllium seed
½ cup vital wheat gluten-- not gluten flour, but the actual gluten powder (available from Honeyville)
½ cup coarse ground whole wheat flour
1 cup besan (chickpea flour)
1 cup almond flour (or could use oat flour)
½ cup wheat bran or oat bran or mix
1½ tsp sea salt
½ tsp stevia powder (optional)
½ tsp vanilla extract
small handful of walnut pieces

> gently mix all dry ingredients except yeast in bowl.

1 T SAF or bread machine yeast w/ (1 T dextrose (or sugar) in 2 T water) or (1 T water, 1 T honey); let stand for a while
> This step is necessary because the low-starch flours will not activate the yeast well enough otherwise.

liquid
2 eggs lightly beaten plus water or other liquid to make 1¼ cups
3T canola oil

> put liquid ingredients including yeast in bread machine pan, add dry ingredients, shake pan
set for rapid whole wheat if you have that, light crust, 1 lb. loaf
adjust with liquid or one of the flours if two wet or dry, when kneading it should form a fairly smooth ball, but not stick to pan

>take out at once when done, cool. Will keep at room temp reasonably well

Even though this bread is only 1/3 wheat, and half of that is gluten, I've found that it makes a passable substitute for whole wheat yeast bread. I have no sure way to estimate the carb count, but based on the ingredients I believe it should be a reasonably low carb bread. Also, what carbs it does have should be less digestible than any wheat flour, which is the key for low carb diets.

Although I don't bake bread in the oven generally, I see no reason this wouldn't work perfectly well as a hand kneaded bread. Don't overdo it... the flours have no gluten at all naturally, and the gluten is added in. It shouldn't need a real lot of kneading. Of course, like any bread, you have to use your experience and instinct to get the dough consistency right. You can just add regular flour if you need to, or a tiny bit of water, for the other direction.

Apropos gluten. I understand that a lot of people have... or believe they have... gluten intolerance, and obviously this bread would not work for them. There are zero gluten recipes out there, but that's not what this one is about. This one tries to reduce easily digestible starch, which is a problem for people with metabolic syndrome or who want to avoid sliding into metabolic syndrome through eating too much refined carbohydrate. The gluten makes nongluten low-carb flours act more like wheat, and actually make bread. Without it, a yeast type bread made predominantly from these flours is impossible.

If Clarence Thomas were a Democorat, he'd already be gone

It's now clear, thanks to the investigative reporting of Ian Millhiser on Think Progress (and others), that Clarence Thomas is guilty of multiple serious ethical violations, which would have landed an ordinary judge or Appellate justice out of a job. See this. You'd have to have just arrived here from Tralfamadore not to have noticed the double standard in American politics when it comes to ethics; in Rachel Maddow's epithet: It's OK if you're a Republican. What Thomas is clearly guilty of is far worse than what former Chief Justice Rehnquist, then a political operative for Nixon, drummed up as a case against Johnson appointed Justice and Chief Justice appointee Abe Fortas in 1968.

But will there be any consequence for Thomas? Will feckless congressional Democrats commence an investigation, much less impeachment proceedings? Will Thomas even acknowledge that there is a controversy? Likely none of these. Let's just say it: if a Democrat on the court had done these things, he'd already be gone. What we're likely to see from Thomas instead is more veiled threats, like the speech he gave earlier this year in which he said that an attack on him was an attack on the court. It's not too much of a stretch to read his comments as "mess with me, and I'll mess you up even worse, America."

Sometimes I wonder if the motivation of many right wingers isn't some sort of deep seated desire for vengeance, as hateful and destructive as their actions (and words) are. Certainly there's almost never a hint of any sense of responsibility to the public as a whole, or that the laws and morés of society apply to them.

22 June 2011

Bond Kingpin: Do More Stimulus Now

In a sane world, when even a major Wall Street bond "kingpin" is saying the Administration and Congress need to give up on all the deficit nonsense and focus on stimulus to create jobs now, you'd think some of the policymakers would sit up and listen. (See this, from Daily Kos). But, as usual the miasma of muddleheadedness that roils up from the swamps in D.C. will no doubt prevent any outbreak of sanity yet again.

21 June 2011

AARP's reply and mine to theirs on Social Security

To my recent letter to AARP (*here), I received this reply; with my reply to that below.

Dear Mr. Studhalter:

Thank you for contacting AARP regarding inaccurate media stories
about the association's policy on Social Security:

AARP is committed as ever to fighting to protect Social Security for
today's older American's and to strengthen it for future generations.
 Contrary to the misleading characterization in a recent media story,
AARP has not changed its position on Social Security.

We are currently fighting proposals in Washington to cut Social
Security in order to reduce a deficit it did not cause.  AARP
believes Social Security should not be used as a piggy bank to solve
the nation's deficit.  Any changes to this lifeline program should
happen in a separate, broader discussion and should make retirement
more secure for future generations.

Our focus has always been the impact of changes on people, not just
budget totals.  This is why AARP's volunteer Board is evaluating any
proposed changes to Social Security.  They will determine how each
change-individually or in different combinations-might impact the
lives of current and future retirees, especially in times of economic
hardship.

We have maintained for years-to our members, the media, and elected
officials-that long-term solvency is key to protecting and
strengthening Social Security for all generations.  We have urged
elected officials in Washington to address the program's long-term
challenges in a way that's fair for all generations.

It has always been AARP's policy that Social Security be strengthened
to provide adequate benefits, in order to ensure solvency for the
next 75 years.  Any changes should be phased in slowly, over time,
and should not affect any current or near-term retirees.

AARP strongly opposed a privatization plan in 2005, and continues to
oppose this approach. Private accounts would reduce benefits and add
a large measure of risk.  They would eliminate the guaranteed income
that Social Security currently provides.

Social Security is a critical issue for our members, their families
and Americans of all ages.  We are in a time when many will have less
retirement security than previous generations due to fewer pensions,
less savings and rising health care costs.

To take action to help protect Social Security, and to learn more
about what we're doing to help older Americans, go to
www.aarp.org/strengthensocialsecurity from your home computer or at
your local library.

I hope this information is helpful.  Again, thank you for getting in
touch with us.  It is important for us to know the concerns of
members.  If there are any services or issues we can assist you with
in the future, please do not hesitate to ask.

Sincerely,

Jaimie
Member Communications
Member@aarp.org
My reply:

Thank you for your reply, but you have not indicated the kind of strong stance that the membership by and large demands. You need to realize that this is an epochal struggle at this time to preserve the only meaningful social programs for the majority of Americans which we have managed to preserve thusfar in this country.

I strongly recommend to you Thomas Geoghegan's excellent op-Ed in Monday's New York Times, advocating payroll and other revenue adjustments to raise, not merely preserve, Social Security, as an essential element of the basic economic security of tens of millions of Americans. AARP should not be milquetoasty and middle-of-the-Road on this issue. If they want to present themselves to their membership as strong advocates for their interests, they need to start acting like it, and supporting changes in the right direction, not the wrong direction.

I remain entirely dissatisfied with the organization's position on this issue and will not contribute funds to their lobbying activities until they are changed to a much stronger advocacy position. Fiscal strength must come from the revenue side, not on the backs of Americans who have seen wages flat and the greatest wealth transfer to the richest Americans in history over the last thirty years.

Thank you.

David Studhalter

20 June 2011

Pure Gold--Geogeghan in NYT-- "Get Radical: RAISE Social Security"

This piece by Thomas Geogeghan in the NYT is pure gold. This guy has it 100% right, and the Democratic Party and the Administration are completely out to lunch on this issue (and about to have their lunch eaten, too, by the Rightists).

18 June 2011

My letter to AARP today

The organization is publicly claiming that it has not changed its position on Social Security, but it is being widely reported, without any clear contradiction, that AARP is "in play" on raising the retirement age. This is totally unacceptable to us, the membership, and we DEMAND that AARP clearly enunciate the truth about Social Security immediately and clearly state that it and its membership will FIGHT any attempt to cut benefits, COLA adjustment methodology, or raise retirement age.

Social Security benefit cuts or further increases in the Retirement Age are simply out of the question. The ONLY acceptable reform for Social Security is to raise or eliminate the cap on income subject to payroll taxes.

People have PAID for Social Security; it's off budget and it's FLAT OUT immoral to ask people to accept DEFAULT on that debt to them to fix a debt they didn't create. AARP needs to say this, and make clear that we will not tolerate cuts to this vital social program.

The national debt was almost entirely created by lowering taxes on the rich under Reagan and both Bushes, and Republican spending on unpaid for wars, unpaid for military buildup, even the unpaid for Pharma giveaway Medicare prescription drug program under Bush II. AARP needs to make the point that it was largely the Republicans that created this big debt, and they did it by allowing the very rich and corporations to go without paying their fair share of the "price of civilization" ... taxes. You should point out that if we were to return to the tax rates of the 1960s we would be able to afford all investments and benefits on the books and proposed, and still pay down the debt.

Current deficits are the result of the current Great Recession, not its cause. The Republicans are fobbing a giant deficit hoax on the American people. The solution to deficits is to get people working again, just as the Great Depression was ended by employment programs and ultimately by the more than full employment of WWII. The percentage of GDP of debt, which was 35% during WWII, is nowhere near that now, and it's just a myth that the US cannot afford to do something about long term unemployment, or keep its realatively meager social programs, namely Social Security and Medicare, intact.

It is particularly galling that the Right, and now apparently with the tacit complicity of AARP, is attacking Social Security. Social Security is not in deficit. It is, moderately, taking in less than its paying out, but it holds massive bond debt and is the most fiscally solvent social program in history. As I noted above, increasing taxes for Social Security would fully resolve the long term financial problem of this program, and nothing else is acceptable. AARP members DEMAND a strong stance from the organization on this issue.

Medicare, too, requires strong support. There are many ways to reduce the excessive cost of medical care without cutting benefits, and AARP should insist on this as well. Tax rises for the richest Americans and eliminating subsidies and sweetheart deals for Pharma, agricultrue, oil, and Finance, would eliminate the deficit entirely; and sensible cost controls for the medical reimbursements from the public sector could easily restore Medicare and Medicaid to full fiscal health. AARP must stand for and defend these programs, which are absolutely essential for America's seniors, especially those of lower income. 

America is not broke, it's just that too much of the money has gone to its richest citizens and too many corporations have been allowed to offshore assets and otherwise avoid taxes. AARP must strongly communicate this message, and defend the essential programs on which its members depend.

Thank you.

16 June 2011

Larry Summers and the way forward

As anyone who has paid any attention to my musings here knows, I have been very critical of Obama's choice of Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner as economic advisers. Strangely, though, based on the piece Summers published on Monday in the Financial Times (behind paywall), Summers, now that he has left the Administration, has started giving good advice to the president. He reviles the idea of a budget crisis as our main economic problem, supports a program of public investment to create jobs and develop infrastructure, and warns against a potential "lost decade" like Japan's in the 1990s (which is really 20 years and no end in sight). Timothy Conover and Ian Masters discuss this here (link to audio file); and if you only listen to one segment of Ian Masters' excellent Background Briefing radio program on KPFK-LA (kpfk.org... archives... Sun 1100 and M-Th 500 PM), make it the first segment of this one.

{The third segment, beginning around 2/3 through, on the travesty of what's being done to public higher education in California is also well worth listening to.}

13 June 2011

My answer to Republican canard that Progressives have their heads in the sand on Medicare

First off, it's a right-wing frame to call the "problem" a "need to fix Medicare." Medicare doesn't need fixing. It needs cost controls, and it needs a secure funding base.

But, to those who (falsely) claim that Progressives have their heads in the sand and are just putting off the inevitable day when Medicare goes bankrupt, I say, all right then, here's my plan.

1. Expand Medicare to all, adding negotiated RX benefits without ridiculous donut holes and sweet deal pricing for Big Pharma.
2.  Institute a comprehensive system of cost controls to rein in health care costs. (This is very general, obviously, but there are a wealth of ideas out there on exactly how to do this).
3. Assess a progressive tax on workers and employers approximately equal to the average amount of health care premiums currently typical of employer paid health insurance. Businesses with fewer than 10 employees would be taxed at a much lower rate, to encourage employment in that sector. Very low income workers would pay nothing.
(By providing this revenue stream, Medicare, which is 20% more efficient (at least) than private health insurance, would save a ton of money and provide decent health care for everyone, at a net cost saving. There would be firm commitments to a practicable but First World Standard level of medical care for all).
4.  Medicare Advantage would be put on a completely cost-neutral basis. You want it, you (or your employer) pays for it; otherwise Medicare for All is what you get. Unsubsidized private insurance (which would probably be more or less the same thing... coverage for luxury medical care that the new Medicare doesn't pay for, funded by private premiums), would be allowed.

By doing this, we could significantly reduce the percentage of GDP spent on medical care, reduce the per-patient cost and put the program on a sound fiscal basis, (since all the healthy younger workers will be paying into it as part of the insurance pool, not just as taxpayers), and the program would be in a position to regulate costs and negotiate equipment and pharmaceutical prices.

Of course, this would require overcoming deeply entrenched special interests. But if you don't say what you want, and you aren't willing to fight for it, you'll never get it.

Krugman on Lieberman's very dumb, extremely bad, not smart idea to raise Medicare eligibility age to 67

This article by Krugman on the total dumbness of Joe Lieberman's proposal to increase Medicare age to 67 is excellent. (Why should we be suprised, when Lieberman has a well-deserved moniker as the "Senator from Aetna"?)

Another E-mail to the White House: Out of Afghanistan

The time has come, as the majority of Americans now realize, to end the war in Afghanistan with all due speed, consistent with the security of our forces.

No question America cannot walk away from a constructive role in the region, particularly with regard to efforts to influence rational and balanced policies in Pakistan, but prosecuting a vastly expensive war in Afghanistan is not in our interests.

Sec. of State Clinton should publicly call for a regional summit, including even Iran, China, and Russia, to try to work out a security regime for the region that DOES NOT include U.S. troops. Talk to Lawrence Wilkerson, whose ideas are certainly not isolationist, but who is someone who knows the history and geopolitics of the area and recognizes that it's time for a complete rethink.

Thank you.

Echoing Kuttner: e-mail to the White House

I sent this to the White House.

Please see Robert Kuttner in today's Huffington Post. The president must NOT allow the political advantage from the huge overreach the Republicans wandered into on the Medicare issue to destroy the political advantage that right now could be the basis not only for re-election, but for retaining the Senate and winning back the House. The administration needs to come up with a strong narrative, including a program of promised reforms centered on jobs and preserving the key social programs, with higher taxes for the rich and closing corporate loopholes... as well as explaining how much of our deficit problem is CAUSED by underemployment. Then sell this, while resisting all attempts to buy into the counterproductive Republican and misguided Conservative Democratic ideas about cutting social programs and undermining the already fragile recovery.

11 June 2011

McKinsey study on HCR: garbage

It surprises me not at all that McKinsey & Co. has published a "study" claiming that Health Care Reform will cause employers to drop benefits. See this. I've had enough experience with these "management consultants" to know that virtually everything they say is just unfounded conventional wisdom and non-scientific conclusions based on unreliable evidence. They're almost entirely in the business of dressing up what their clients want to hear in the trappings of intellectual foundation. (So it can be used to justify actions the clients wanted to take anyway; usually for nefarious, plutocratic, and anti-worker reasons).

I look upon McKinsey and similar phony intellectual management consultants, and the doctrines of the schools of business foremost among which is Harvard Business School, across the river from the real Harvard, as part of the problem of the economy of this country, not part of the solution. This pattern now dates back more than a generation.

We have to completely reform the way business is conducted and regulated in this country, along the lines of the way it is conducted in Germany. Part of that process will be to permanently discredit and discard the anti-employee doctrines promulgated by the likes of McKinsey and big business schools, Harvard chief among them.

09 June 2011

Santorum has it for brains

Santorum says climate change is "patently absurd" and a "liberal scheme." This man's brain has turned into his eponymous substance. (If you don't know what that is, google 'santorum.')

06 June 2011

Weiner's follies

OK, so Anthony Weiner has fessed up that he really did send the dick pick and that he's a bit of a cad. So what? What does that really have to do with anything? If Sen. Vitter can get re-elected after admitting to paying a prostitute for sex, which, by the bye, is a crime, this little peccadillo is a big fat nothing, in my book.

So, Congressman Weiner, thanks for the confession, now let's move on. If Pelosi and the leadership want to reprimand him, who cares about that either? I would vote for him in a heartbeat.

05 June 2011

Krugman sums it up for you... again

As I've found to be generally the case with him, Paul Krugman once again gives an excellent summation of a politico-economic issue; this time the deceptiveness inherent in Republicans' insistence that their plan is anything other than a scheme to destroy Medicare. Here. (Times paywall in effect).

01 June 2011

A message to Democrats... Stand your ground!

See Daily KOS today. They publish the results of a recent poll that shows:
  • A majority of voters do not want the Affordable Care Act repealed: Just 42% of voters want to see the new healthcare law repealed, with 56% preferring to either give it a chance to work and make changes as needed (48%) or to keep it as is (8%).
  • Voters are even less supportive of defunding than repeal: If efforts to repeal the law in Congress fail, voters disapprove of defunding it by a 16-point margin (39% approve / 55% disapprove)....
  • Voters overwhelmingly reject Ryan budget’s proposed changes to Medicare. After voters hear [a] neutral description of the Ryan plan’s proposed changes to Medicare, they oppose the budget by a 16-point margin (38% support / 54% oppose). Among seniors, opposition rises to 58%, and it reaches 60% among independents after they hear about the substance of the plan’s proposed changes to Medicare....
  • Voters are just as concerned about the impact of the Ryan budget on certain aspects of Medicaid and the ACA as they are about its changes to Medicare. As concerned as voters are about the Ryan budget’s proposed changes to Medicare, they are just as opposed to its proposed Medicaid cuts that would impact four-out-of-five of nursing home residents (63% very concerned). 
  • There is also strong concern that the budget would allow insurance companies to continue to deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions (61% very concerned). This is even higher than the concern caused by the budget cutting billions from Medicare while protecting tax breaks for big oil (59% very concerned), or that it will privatize Medicare (55% very concerned).
 OK, Democrats, take heed! Stay on message, tout Health Care Reform, and REFUSE to cut benefits for Medicare. (Cost controls, yes, cut benefits, no). The Republican positions on all these issues are terrifically and increasingly unpopular. Don't cave in! Stand your ground, call their bluff, and prevail!