The Irreducible Necessity of Voting ... a plea for everyone to do all they can

Here it is less than two weeks before the election, and, farflung correspondents, I am worried. We're hosting a music club that's been around since the 1950s in our house next Friday evening. It's hard for me to shake the fear that our music making on that particular weekend may turn out to be a dirge for democracy. Please don't let's let that happen. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE tell everyone you know it's vital that they vote this time, for democracy, not for the forces of darkness. I really do see the dichotomy as that serious the way things have gone down in our country. 

And don't forget, if you know people who may not know it, not only do the Right Wing Republicans (i.e., all of them) want to do absolutely nothing for ordinary people, but they do intend to end reproductive rights, cut Social Security and Medicare, and grow the debt with even more tax cuts for the very, very rich, and they want to end fair elections to ensure that they remain in power permanently. We used to have no difficulty calling such politics what it is: fascism. 

You have to finesse the message talking to some people. It does no good to alienate people. But even many folks who aren't "political," and who often don't vote, don't want the government telling them a teenage relative raped by her uncle can't get an abortion, and they don't want a governent that does absolutely nothing for them but restrict their rights and tank the economy with unstable and nutty economic theories and tax cuts for the rich. They don't want politicians to cut and disable Social Security and Medicare, which ordinary folks have paid for, and they sure as hell don't want anyone to end fair elections and rig the system so all elections they win are called "fair," but if they don't win, then they're "rigged" and their candidates have to take office anyway. This is the legacy of Trump, and it's unAmerican. Most people still believe in fundamental fairness, and if you can get them to realize that Republicans really do stand for ending fair elections permanently, and that the only thing they can do about it is vote... well, maybe they just will. The reality is, almost everywhere in America, that if we Democrats could get the same margin of our voters to actually vote as the Right Wing Party does, we would win almost every election. So, getting casual voters and nonvoters to actually vote is the key. And every single vote counts. 

Thank you. 

The upcoming election and foolishness abounding

George Lakoff has often pointed out that small-l liberalism is mired in 18th century thinking that really just doesn't work in 21st century politics. (His analysis is much deeper and broader than that, but that's part of it). Anyway, I guess this applies to me squarely. Because I simply cannot understand how this election, both in my own state and in the nation, can possibly be even somewhat close. We have one party which is consistently seeking to overthrow the small-d democratic order, lies openly in its campaigns and ads about just about everything, and has no agenda at all other than reduce taxes for the rich and pander to the mean spirited hatefulness of the ultra right. I submit that although colored by my political ideology, these simple statements are essentially facts. The other party, while hardly a paragon of consistency, and marked by horribly inconsistent messaging, is basically trying to act rationally; to accept facts; to deal with the realities of climate change, global economic problems, etc. etc. So you would think just about everyone with, as folks used to say, "a whit of sense," would reject the Republicans en masse and vote for Democrats. But that is not what is happening. It is close everywhere, but that will translate into losses for Democrats. Some places. It is still possible, of course, that Democrats will win a significant margin in many states and retain the House and build a margin in the Senate (since two of our members are completely unreliable as Democrats). Possible, but most of the pundit class seems to think unlikely at this point. And I just cannot grasp how this could be so. Except that I realize I am taking a false premise as a given, that being that most people are rational actors and vote in their own self-interest. Clearly 2016 proved that was not the case, if it needed proving. But I am a slow learner. I still shake my head. And hope for the best. 

 

"If you want the present to be different from the past, study the past."
― Spinoza

Gazpacho in a juicer

I've been experimenting with making gazpacho with a juicer rather than blender and sieve. Then add back about 20% of the pulp. 

My no-oil no bread recipe can hardly be simpler. 

2 or 3 cucumbers, peeled.

2 or 3 small asian pears, cored and peeled (or if you are separating the pulp, don't bother to peel; you don't want pear peels in the pulp). 

6 or 7 garden tomatoes

2 red bell peppers, cooked 2 min. in microwave, cored

2 cloves garlic

1/2 sweet raw onion

1 tbs. dried tarragon leaves

1 tsp. salt

about 1 tbs. lemon juice.

A little ice water

Run all the vegetables through juicer and add back roughly 20% of the pulp. Then use immersion blender till smooth. Can add up to 1/4 cup olive oil before blending if you like that; it makes it smoother and richer in a way, but less "gardeny." I like it without. Cooking the bell peppers makes them sweeter and less astringent tasting. Chill before serving. Makes about 1/2 gallon. 

  

VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE !

Just voted my (100% by mail) Oregon ballot. All Democratic of course. Not fooled by phony ex-Democrat Betsy Johnson's fraudulent campaign (of course!) We had a measure to enshrine health care as a right in the State Constitution (YES) and to ensure Republicans can't just escape their responsibility to show up at floor sessions of the legislature in order to prevent the Democratic majority from passing anything. Also not to opt out locally from our new law permitting psilocybin therapy (by licensed people), and to require relatively minimal permitting of guns and prohibiting high volume ammunition (designed to pass muster in the new horrible climate in the US Supreme Court, but I expect this measure to fail in relatively pro-gun Oregon). 

 

"If you want the present to be different from the past, study the past."
― Spinoza

Tesla Model 2 coming

I own a Kia EV, but I'm a realist. I'm interested in the Aptera three wheeled autocycle, which can generate about 40 mi. worth of range just by being parked in the sun for a day (production is about to start, sales next year, delivery of current orders probably late 2024). But the real news in EVs is, as it often has been, Tesla. They have worked out technology and manufacturing for cheaper, better batteries, and the actual production of a much cheaper small car, which is probably going to be called the Model 2. It will likely be built in China, and so not eligible for the $7500 credit (they're current cars don't get the current credit either but they still sell well). But, here's the thing. It will compete directly with cars like the Bolt and the new Kia EV4, which is still a couple of years away. Small hatchback. Not tiny, but small. Expected price: about $25,000. For a Tesla, which will share most parts with its big brothers. This will definitely accelerate the huge shift to electric cars already underway. Tesla, unlike all the Japanese, other American, and European manufacturers, is retaining and expanding a technological and manufacturing advantage. Their only really strong competitor is the Chinese company BYD. 

Short additional comment on EV market

There are exactly two automakers in the world that make money on every pure battery EV they sell. And they are the largest and second largest EV makers in volume as well. They are BYD (Chinese company, plans to build 4 million EVs and PHEVs next year), and Tesla. Sam Evans (the "Electric Viking" on YouTube) predicts BYD will be the largest automaker, period, in the world, by 2030, and Tesla is on track to be second. Both these companies didn't even exist as automakers in 2000. And they will be each larger than Ford, GM, Stellantis, Renault, Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Porsche, Volvo, Hyundai Group, Toyota, Nissan, Mistubishi, Subaru, Honda, Mazda, or Tata (India), which is a list of pretty much all the major automakers in the world as of 2000, as currently constituted.

BYD electric model

I submit this as proof that a major revolution in the auto industry is well past its tipping point.  

 

Writing to Voters

Just finished sixty letters to voters in swing districts. We all have to do our part to try to win this damn election. 

Some Electric Car Facts.

BYD (Chinese, but it stands for "Build Your Dreams," no kidding) is now building 200,000 EVs and PHEV (plug in hybrids) per month, which is more EVs than all US manufacturers other than Tesla combined, and all Japanese manufacturers combined. 

US auto sales are down 21% year over year. But Tesla is up 169%. That tells you all you need to know about the collapse of the internal combustion engine and the exploding demand for electric cars. 

Vinfast (Vietnamese auto startup), BYD, and Hyundai group (includes Kia) are planning projects to build factories in the US to take advantage of the tax credit for EVs built in North America. I'm not aware of any new projects to build internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in North America. And Hyundai group, the Chinese, and even GM and Ford, have all but stopped R&D on ICE power trains, and will probably never build a new passenger car engine design. The technology is rapidly becoming obsolete, full stop. There will be niche markets, of course, but for standard transportation, ICE is disappearing. Electric motor technology is already mature and very efficient... the technology race is for cheap batteries that don't use especially rare or toxic materials, and there are several very promising new developments in this area. 

Drastic Change in Auto industry worldwide coming.

I've passed on some of the buzz about this before, but let me just say this succinctly. The legacy automakers, all of them, and especially the Japanese, should be very, very worried about the 18 (count 'em, 18) Chinese automakers. None of the Chinese (largest being BYD) seem to be planning to move into the North American market right now. And Tesla has world class high end electric cars, which will continue to gobble market share. But the Chinese are making high quality, attractive, and far more advanced electric cars that are selling, without rebates but before tariffs, for approximately $20,000, and they're starting to flood the market in Europe already. This will make the 1970s Japanese "invasion" look mild, although the Biden administration's plans to offer rebates on North American built cars will in fact help the US to remain competitive. Still, Ford, GM, Stellantis, Volkswagen, Porsche, Renault, BMW, Daimler, and, even moreso, Nissan, Honda, Subaru, Toyota, Mazda, Suzuki, and Mistubishi, are poised to be virtually wiped out because they have almost nothing that can compete. Hyundai group will struggle but may be able to find a niche because their cars are competitive in quality. But the Chinese are way out in front, especially in the critical area of software development, where the rest of the world has failed to realize that this isn't just something you outsource and don't stress too much but an absolutely critical component of the driving experience. (Most companies outsource this to, whaddaya know, the Chinese (including Taiwan), who tend to push their second tier product. Only the high end Audi, Porsche and BMW cars get the best systems, but here's the rub, they're not better than the ones in cheaper Chinese cars. Bottom line: the Chinese are just plain doing it better and cheaper. 

 

China has its challenges, to be sure, and none of this is cast in stone, but Western governments and corporations had better take the threat seriously, because as of right now they are falling behind rapidly. And the Japanese are probably in the worst situation of all. Their cars barely change from year to year except cosmetically (and the less said about Japanese styling the better)... and their response to the obvious rapid approach of a drastic changeover to electric cars has been abysmal. Full stop. Worse than abysmal. Even Nissan, which developed the Leaf early on, has fallen so far behind they're hardly selling any EVs, even in North America, where they have done better than anywhere else (Nissan has posted a loss two years running, because their ICE cars aren't selling either). 

  

Democracy in Peril

We all know that Trump, however canny and good at schmoozing people, cannot write a single paragraph of coherent prose, much less 14 pages. So you have to wonder what brand of idiot does he have working for him who cannot understand that the size of the Insurrection crowd is totally irrelevant to the case made by the Jan. 6 committee that this f*ker is guilty of treason (one definition: making war on the United States), or at least seditious conspiracy. Michael Cohen went out on a limb and bet Chuck Todd $1 that Trump will never in hell appear before the committee. Not exactly a longshot. UNLESS. Unless the Democrats win enough races to keep the House in November. Not perhaps likely but certainly possible. If this committee is reconstituted and reissues its subpena, and Garland does indeed indict Trump in the Mar a Lago case, he may have no choice, since he will be in custody. 

And, folks, if we lose even just the House, our democracy is in its greatest peril since the Civil War. This is not hyperbole. Please take this threat seriously. Vote. Make all your friends and relatives vote. So very, very much is at stake. 

  

Historian's eye view of January 6

This is literally the first draft of history. If you're a follower of current affairs, you know all this, but historian Heather Cox Richardson has put it down in succinct, chronological paragraphs just like a future historical account. History is not totally objective, of course, but this is a balanced and factual account of what actually happened. Only those who are oblivious to reality in their virtual worship of Cult Leader and Former Failed President Trump would find much to quibble with here. 

 

"If you want the present to be different from the past, study the past."
― Spinoza

Music videos on YT a real treasure trove

One of my real pleasures these days is regularly dipping into the wonderful video recorded performances of music, especially sacred music like the Bach Stiftung and Netherlands Bach Ensemble on YouTube. I pay for premium to avoid ads, and it's worth it. Like this, Cantata No. 77, Du sollt Gott, deinen Herrn, lieben, performed by the Bach Stiftung of Switzerland, conducted by the estimable Rudolf Lutz. (This isn't even a particularly well known or exceptional cantata; this is workaday Bach, which means reliably far superior to any of his contemporaries). These are first rate performances, far better, in general, than anything available on records 50 years ago when I first discovered the wonders of Bach's cantatas, and it's all free. And the visual component is a huge plus as well. Of course it helps to have decent sound on whatever you use watch YouTube. I cast to a TV with auxiliary high fidelity speakers. (And I send them a little money now and them and get nice programs and letters (in German) from them). 

What it will take to land Trump in Jail

There's a certain irony that the case which seems to be the most likely to put Failed Former President Trump in an orange jumpsuit is the one where he probably had little to gain other than sheer ego aggrandizement. I appreciate that there are serious and real national security concerns with the classified documents, but it's not actually that easy to monetize something like that, and now that there is laserlike attention on them, he can't really profit. Yet he's doubled down, virtually admitting guilt and compounding the law violations with dead to rights, openly recorded obstruction of justice. The insurrection and seditious conspiracy is probably worse but more complex and harder to prove. It is Mar a Lago that seems most likely to land him in actual jail.  

Maybe if, mirabile dictu, the House remains under Democratic control, it will be easier to force him to testify about his role in the only time a president has ever instigated an insurrection against the United States when all they have to do is request the Bureau of Prisons to deliver him to the Capitol for the hearing. 

One can hope. 

Another critical reason to return the Dems to House Control

So now we have yet another extremely important reason to return the Democratic majority to power in the House. The Jan 6 committee has voted to subpoena the Failed Former President, and unless the Democrats retain control, it's a certainty that that forcing that crucial appearance before Congress will not be happening.  

In Memoriam

One of the very last of her generation. RIP Angela Lansbury, died yesterday at 96.  

Polarization at a tipping point?

Interesting discussion in the NYT. Here. 

I agree with those that say that an actual war, like the 1861-1865 Civil War, is essentially impossible, because the Federal government has massive weaponry. But there is a real question whether the military would follow the orders of a Trump (not necessarily Trump himself, who may not be capable of this at this point).... who had seized power through fraud. By which I mean massive disenfranchisement of voters, beyond even the amount of that that's built into our current non-democratic presidential and senatorial electoral systems. If they were to do it with the complicity of the Supreme Court (which seems all too possible), then they would probably have the military behind them. And what we would have would be a 1921 Mussolini military coup, in effect, not a civil war. What that would entail for the future I almost literally shudder to think. But with an actual majority opposed to that outcome, it would be a very unstable situation. The sad truth is that faced with overwhelming authoritarian power, most people just accept the situation and begin rationalizing how it's actually fine. Right up until and even after Stalingrad most Germans were complicit, even supportive, in the Nazi regime. Is this bad, bad, bad? No. It's worse. 

Japanese Carmakers and the great electric catastrophe

If you doubt my previous claim that the Japanese automakers, all of them, have missed the electric car juggernaut, see this for additional confirmation. 

Automakers that have missed the Electric Wave are in BIG trouble

See this to understand some of the major reasons why Tesla will soon sell more cars than any other company in North America and why companies have ignored the rapid shift to electric cars  -- past the tipping point already -- are going to lose market share and some even go bankrupt. Like all the Japanese makers (including Nissan's Renault*), Stellantis (Fiat/Peugeot Chrysler), and most automakers other than Korea's Hyundai Group, and the Chinese, as a group. Ford and GM are barely competitive. Mercedes, BMW, and VW are also barely in the game. This is the biggest disruption of the auto industry since the 1920s. 

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*Nissan produced one of the first successful electric cars, the Leaf, but they have dropped the ball and are not really competitive; also their conversion from ICE has been, pardon the pun, glacial. Toyota is worse, and none of the other Japanese makers have produced viable electric cars in any numbers. 

MAGA playbook

Kind of sums up what it is to be a MAGA politician. One of them, a city councilmember in Las Vegas, stood in front of the tiny MAGA crowd at Orange Menace's rally this weekend and said, almost a literal quote: » Under Donald Trump unemployment was a little over 3%. Now, under Biden, it's over ten percent! Yeah! Ten percent! «

Except in Nevada in particular, its 2.1%.  Two point one percent. The lowest unemployment level in decades. 

This is what you call a goddamn lie, and that's their playbook in a nutshell. 

Only a month to go... gearing up to help Democrats keep the House and Senate

Honestly don't know how much good it does, but I completed 50 postcards to Wisconsin voters to aid in the effort (primarily) to send Ron Johnson packing and elect Mandela Barnes to the Senate. Now I've signed up to complete 40 letters to voters in New York (Ryan) and Illinois (Sorenson) toss up districts to try to help Democrats keep the House. Every effort helps, or so I want to believe. This election really is crucial, so if you're thinking about what you can do, try Vote Save America or Vote Forward. 

 

DOJ: Trump still has more government documents

Hah? Ya think?  

We must deal with this out of control Supreme Court

 Clarence Thomas has ordered the DOJ to respond to Trump's deranged petition to the SC to vacate the 11th Circuit order in the Mar a Lago case. There are no legitimate issues here. This is yet another example of the completely out of control overreach of the Supreme Court, and especially Clarence Thomas. The only solution, if we are to save our country, is for the Democratic party to win the House and Senate and for our leadership to realize that the only solution is to add more justices to the court to restore the balance of sanity. I can no longer countenance or even credit arguments to the contrary. This is it. The time for "deliberation" and "moderation" is long past. 

Some basic economic realities people tend to ignore

When inflation was running at about 2-3% and CD rates were about 1.25%, it took no genius to realize that "parking money" was on a fee basis, and savings was disincentivized. I for one don't see this as a primarily political issue. It's just the way the late-stage capitalist economy works, and it's transnational. So now inflation in the US is something like 8% (or higher), and savings rates are maybe 3%. It takes no genius to see that savings are more disincentivized, and, in fact, debt and deficit spending, and not just by governments, is being canceled by stealing savings, which in effect transfers money from the future to the present. Well, well. Hardly surprising. People always think if you spend money you don't have it's just magic, but money isn't real. Goods and services are real, human behavior is real. All we can really do is influence behavior now to try to get people to do things to relieve economic stress. The natural gas crisis in Europe is an example. Governments can't create gas by fixing prices. If there's less gas, there's less gas. But they can use industrial policy to accelerate and incentivize new sourcing, rather than just let the marketplace allocate the shortage and let higher prices incentivize new sourcing. My point is that we need to remember that wealth has to come from somewhere, it's not just rates and prices that can be manipulated by policy. And that somewhere is human effort and natural resources, which can only be influenced so much by policy. 

Republicans Poised to Wreck our Country on purpose if they get any Legislative Power

Heather Cox Richardson today (https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/september-29-2022?utm_source=email) makes a very solid case that the Republicans, if they win EITHER house, as it still seems fairly likely they will, intend to actually play the "debt ceiling card" and refuse to allow the already funded government programs to proceed. This has been threatened many times before, and the closest we came to calamity was probably in 2011. This kind of brinksmanship, and worse, actual 'nuclear war' if they were to follow through on it, is incredibly reckless. Virtually all economists and business analysts think the US defaulting on its debt would precipitate a giant Wall Street collapse, instant recession, hundreds of thousands of jobs lost and economic growth sidelined, and have very negative repercussions for the US financially indefinitely... essentially permanently. It would throw into question, even challenge, the US dollar's position as the world reserve currency... one of our greatest economic assets as a nation. So, any politician who cares about the welfare of our nation would never do such a damaging thing, right? 

Don't count on it. They don't care about the country, only their own deranged lust for power. And the MAGA nutjobs now run the party of Lincoln, which I am 100% sure he would've long since abandoned had he lived in our time. 

This is a hard message to make into a sound bite or a 20 sec. TV spot. But we have to somehow convey to people who will be REALLY HURT if this happens that the only safe way to make sure it doesn't is to keep the House and Senate in Democratic hands! 

Dearie should have none of it

Trump's pet judge Aileen Cannon has now overruled procedural orders of the Special Master and delayed the process over a month beyond what Dearie actually needs, for no other reason than to favor her obviously preferred "client," Donald Trump. Dearie should have none of it. He should resign, and issue a scathing explanation of why he is doing so. Cannon would be unable to hold on when the DOJ appeals asking the Court of Appeal to throw out the entire case, or reassign it on the grounds of actual bias. Which is ALWAYS a ground to recuse a judge. 

A subtle slur

Pretty sure it's a tell. I was interviewed for a phone survey.  The interviewer pretty conspicuously had a Southeast Asian accent, but that's not at all the point. The point is that her script referred to "Democrat" and "Republican" candidates (used as adjectives). Any legitimate organization, or a Democratic party poll, would use the correct form, "Democratic." It's the "Democratic Party," not the "Democrat Party," and it's deliberately degrading not to call it by its correct name. I concluded this was a right wing organization poll (such as Republican Party poll). I said to her, as nicely as I could, "when you use the word "Democrat" as an adjective, as in "Democrat Party," or "Democrat Candidate," it's a subtle slur. You might want to be aware of that. People who recognize that are likely to be offended by it." Right wingers do this all the time, and those of us who are politically attuned are keenly aware of it.  She said what the script tells her to say when the interviewer says anything other than the information she's supposed to record, "thank you for that information." But who knows, maybe she'll think about it a little, and I hope she realizes, as an employee, her employers most definitely do not have her interests at heart. 

Cuba and Ian

Although I'm fairly sure for purely political reasons the Democrats and Biden will not do this, I think the US would benefit in the long run in terms of redress for an overly long ice age (and it's the right thing to do)... if we were to offer pretty massive emergency aid to Cuba right now.  

Bolsonaro will try a Trumpian coup

It's being reported that Brazilian would-be dictator Jair Bolsonaro is already signaling that he will follow the Trump Jan. 6 playbook when (not if) he loses Brazil's upcoming presidential election (he's behind 12 pts. to Lula da Silva). THIS is the legacy of Trump... the US has become an example to the world of how democracy can be subverted... not how it can be made to work well. 

Bad Weather

If I thought like that monumental idiot Pat Robertson I would attribute the likely bull's eye hit of Ian on Florida to the evil that is Ron DeSantis. But I don't. It's just bad weather. 

Climate Change and technology based economic developments in the near future

I follow a lot of commentary on the technology of conversion away from fossil fuels, and what it's likely to mean. So here are some informal predictions that most people may not really have thought of.

1. The oil companies have failed to innovate a substitute production system. They will FAIL. And they will go down fighting, so we have to make sure we are politically stronger than they are.

2. The electrification of the auto sector will happen with lightning speed. Tesla, Hyundai (includes Kia), and to a lesser extent Daimler, BMW, VW, Ford and GM, have done enough that they will probably survive, although there are reports that GM is so saddled with legacy costs, useless plants, and debt that it may not avoid bankruptcy. Who's left out here? The JAPANESE. ALL of them. Even though Nissan pioneered the Leaf, and Toyota the Prius (25 year old fully obsolete hybrid technology)... they have not kept up, and in fact have resisted the changeover. All the Japanese manufacturers will struggle, and some will not survive. Toyota was the largest manufacturer of motor vehicles in the world until recently. It is so far behind on electrification that it will probably drop below 10% market share worldwide by 2030. Subaru, Mitsubishi, and Mazda would all be doomed if they were not part of larger concerns that make ships and other major industrial production. Stellantis (Fiat/Peugeot/Chrysler) is in deep trouble and will probably only survive as a Chinese company. Which brings up the elephant on the planet: China. China has TEN manufacturers set to produce electric cars in huge volumes over the next five years. They don't seem to be that interested in the North American market, but the Eurasian market, which is huge and growing, is likely to be dominated by them.

3. Nuclear technology is not right there, but it is coming along. We will likely see practical modular thorium (and possibly some low pressure uranium) fission reactors proliferating, mostly outside Europe and North America (for political reasons) in the next few years, and, FINALLY, there appears to be significant progress towards fusion energy production, which is likely to be a part of the solution, probably mostly after 2040. 

4.  Battery technology, which is critical not only for transportation but for practical use of solar and wind and other carbon neutral forms of energy production, is making wildly encouraging progress towards more efficient, longer lasting, and vastly cheaper batteries. The US is, surprisingly, doing well as an innovator here, whereas the actual production of most batteries, so far, centers on China. The Inflation Reduction Act makes a significant contribution to bringing this industry online more in America. 

Carbon impact of day to day living

I am 100% for responsibility with regard to climate change amelioration. But we should remember what is important and what, relatively speaking, is less so. Of course we should use less one-use plastic and drive electric cars. But it's the conversion of the entire transportation infrastructure and energy infrastructure that is what will do what's needed, not individual responsibility, by and large. Keep in mind that even if the electricity to drive your EV were entirely derived from renewables (which it isn't, in North America, certainly), you would still have to drive it for about ten years to offset the carbon impact just from the fact that it is new, i.e., another car, with the carbon impact of its very manufacture. Even if it replaces an ICE car that goes to recycling, that, too, is additional carbon impact. And driving it for an entire year doesn't make up for a single thousand mile flight in an airliner by one person. You would have to reuse a plastic container about 10,000 times to equal one such flight, and that includes the carbon impact of making the containers and disposing of them. And we bemoan the plastics in the ocean, but almost all of it comes from shipping disposal and environmentally detrimental disposal methods in less advanced countries; very little plastic from North America ends up in the ocean. This isn't intended to recommend wasteful behavior; far from it. The point is that our collective action to convert all of society into a renewable energy mode, and one that develops sustainable materials technology, is what is essential. Individual "good behavior" is secondary and would never be enough. 

Keep the Faith and Don't Give Up

Friends, we simply cannot give up. The consensus seems to be that we Democrats have something like a 1 in 4 chance of keeping the House. Not great odds. But we simply HAVE TO WIN, so the time is now to do what you can, kick in what money you can to critical, winnable races, and NOT GIVE UP. That is all. 

Grifter Trump, Blackmailer Extraordinaire?

Think about it. Folks who really know Donald Trump, significantly Michael Cohen, have seriously suggested that when it comes right down to it, Trump will blackmail the whole country by threatening to reveal damaging stuff from the documents cache (of which he undoubtedly has copies)... if he isn't given immunity or at least a sweetheart deal. (And if that happens, we may never know of it). This isn't provable, but you gotta admit it fits. I hate this guy about at the same level as I hate Vladimir Putin... for risking the safety and security of our whole f*ing WORLD. 

Biden could reclassify

In all the commentary on declassification, it should be constantly reiterated and kept in mind that President Biden can (and perhaps should) reclassify anything that Trump supposedly declassified... even without specifying exactly what it might have been. Trump is not being accused of mishandling classified records, so any issue of whether the records he stole bearing classification markings are or are not currently classified could be easily and speedily resolved by an order identifying all documents bearing classification markings taken or at any time in the possession of Trump or anyone associated with him on or after January 20, 2021 and declaring all such documents to be classified according to the markings they originally bore, regardless of any allegation by Trump or others that they were at any time declassified. I can discern no argument that Biden does not have the absolute power to do this, and it would protect all such documents from inadvertent or illegal disclosure by anyone. And this would include any documents Trump still has in his possession. 

My Five Points for What Democrats Stand For (and will do their damndest to get done if we get the votes)

With all the obsessive attention to the Failed Former Guy and his legal troubles, we Democrats need to focus, focus, focus on the midterms, where we simply must pick up two "normal" Democrats in the Senate, and keep the House majority. We know from recent history that long, "Federalist Paper" style considerations of policy issues and platforms don't really penetrate the electoral consciousness and don't help much to win elections. But, on the other hand, I think people who are not very political and don't really see and understand the extent to which politics in America has become a struggle between (ironically) the small-r republican faction, which has roughly 60% support of the public, and what I like to call the "Big-fat-F Fascist faction." Which, of course, is what the big-R Republican party has become. And polling for the past few months puts their fraction of consistent support at about 34%, possibly less. To convince the wobblier cohort of the 60% I'm calling small-r Rs, and at least some of the "inexplicable remainder," the remaining 6% that is either so tuned out of politics or so stupid that they can't decide whether they want to live in a republic or a fascist dictatorship, I think Democrats, and those likely to vote Democratic who may have formerly been Republicans, definitely need to cohere as a movement and party and stand for something. Say, explicitly, clearly, and unifiedly, what it is we stand for, in bold and simple form. Our policy, agenda, manifesto, platform, whatever you want to call it. I suggest simply calling it "What Democrats Stand For and will do their damndest to get done if you give us your vote!"

And, modestly, here is my proposal. Trying to limit it to just five memorable but crucial points. Of course there are lots and lots of things progressives would like to see get done, but if we can achieve two years of legislative control, we have a real opportunity to make enormous positive changes in our country, and we owe it to the future to define the broad outlines of what we stand for and to highlight the most important goals. Of course we have struggles within our own party, but sometimes clearly stating what you stand for can help defeat special interests from within as well as in the opposition. 

Having a platform is no substitute for political work, meaning GOTV, voter outreach, etc., but it is part of what's necessary to "win hearts and souls" to a broadly unifying political framework that is consistent with the constitutional framework of our country. At a time when what the opposition offers is no plan, no program, just the destruction of democracy and the substitution of oligarchic authoritarianism. This threat is very real, and yet we know from history that potential fascists are often very, very good at manipulating the public, so as obvious to those broadly on the "left" as it may be, there is a large cohort of the population that is at least somewhat deaf to the clarion warnings of possible dictatorship, and lulled by the appeals to tribal cohesion that the Right does so well. 

So, here is my Platform for America, in Five Points: 

• Restore integrity to our democracy and keep elections secure, safe, fair, and available to all citizens, and work to make our institutions more democratic, not less
• Continue the buildout of smart, safe and renewable infrastructure to make all Americans more prosperous and ensure a safe and livable environment for ourselves and our posterity
• Ensure reproductive and other critical human rights against incursion from those who would take them away
• Work to ensure that everyone in America can get a good job, has decent comprehensive health care, can get a good education, has access to a decent place to live, and has enough to eat -- because it's the RIGHT THING TO DO. 
• Work to ensure that at all levels of government, and in workplace and business regulation, essential fairness is the watchword, so everyone gets a fair shake and no one is above the law or specially privileged 

I welcome comments on this. 

11 Cir.: Govt. keeps classified stuff, and does not have to have it reviewed by Trump's lawyers or special master

If you're a newswonk like me, you're sick and tired of hearing about the Failed Former F*head and everything about his legal troubles, but can't quite stay away either. Anyway, here is a point about the 11th cir. repudiation of Trump sycophant "Judge" Aileeen Cannon that didn't get a lot of notice. The Spec. Master, Judge Dearie, already told the parties he didn't really see any need to actually see the classified stuff the FBI seized, but the 11th cir. made this moot, as Joyce Vance noted in her daily newsletter:  "The 11th Circuit also excused the government from any obligation to submit classified materials to the special master for review."

Oppose Manchin's Dirty Fossil Fuel Deal

I almost think it shouldn't be necessary to say this, but I strongly oppose Joe Manchin's dirty deal on fossil fuels. And why should we make any concessions to this a*hole? We remember how he screwed us repeatedly, and his grudging support, in the bitterest, almost-too-late end, for about a quarter of what Build Back Better should've been, doesn't qualify as a quid pro quo that I would ever support. What is necessary for the future of our country right now more than anything actually feasible this year, are 1) elect at least two additional "normal" Democratic senators and lose no seats in the Midterm; and 2) retain the House in Democratic hands. If we have those, till 2024 at least, we can tell Manchin where to stuff his corporatist fossil fuel lobby BS. For now, I say, kill the damn bill. 

Geshe Kelsang Gyatso (1931--Sept. 17, 2022)

The celebrated and accomplished Tibetan monk and "geshe" (advanced practitioner/scholar) in the Kadam or Gelug tradition of Tibetan Buddhism, Geshe Kelsang Gyatso, has died. He died Saturday. He was 91. His followers refer to his passing as "showing us the way to pass peacefully into the clear light." 

I formerly considered Geshe Kelsang my "spiritual teacher" and it was from his teachings, writings, and disciples' teachings that my husband and I learned what we were able to about traditional Tibetan Buddhist thought and practice. I still regard him as a great teacher and wonderful example, despite some aspects of the tradition he created ("New Kadampa Tradition") that I, at any rate, found unsupportable and in some cases not believable. We mark his passing with sadness but also with recognition that his time had come and he did accept and understand passing "into the clear light" as another part of the life of a spiritual teacher.  

Battery technology in the near future

A little wonky, but this video shows that battery technology is in flux, and it appears that much more flexible, faster, cheaper, and more environmentally sustainable batteries are under development. 

It seems clear that the problems of converting the world to renewable energy and going from there to solve the Climate Crisis are almost entirely political. The technical problems are almost certainly solveable. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3BEefD-Zac&list=TLPQMTYwOTIwMjJzXnMOqn4pww&index=1  

Why is John Yoo being treated with respect?

Lately I've seen Bush era OLC lawyer John Yoo being respectfully consulted as a paid pundit on CNN and writing op-eds in the Washington Post. This creep, who is a tenured professor at UC Berkeley Law School, lest we forget, is the author of the notorious and disgraceful memo purporting to justify torture. He should've been disgraced, dismissed, and disbarred years ago and certainly should not be being given any credence or respect today. Some things you just can't walk away from or ignore, and to the best of my knowledge he has never retracted or repudiated his grotesque, law-distorting, and immoral stance while working for the second-worst president in our history. If the law does not uphold the most fundamental principles of humanity, it loses all moral suasion, which is so dangerous that people like Yoo who convolute their forensic and language skills to seem to justify the most immoral kind of abuse of power conceivable, should forfeit their careers and all respect, at a bare minimum. 

Getting used to the new inflation regime

I don't like seeing the value of my savings dwindle due to inflation any more than the next person, but doesn't it seem obvious that in an economy straitened by things like the Ukraine War, the supply chain effects of the pandemic, chronic labor shortage in North America (!), etc., that it's inevitable that prices will rise, and wages will rise as well... leaving people living on slower growing investments or (worse) fixed or inadequately indexed annuity or pension income to take a hit in overall wealth? We have a huge cohort of baby boomers and even somewhat younger people retiring or retired. We have become accustomed to a standard of living that was a good deal easier to come by 30 or 40 years ago than now. So it seems inevitable to me that the "saved wages" of this nonproductive cohort is going to decrease in value. I don't see it as a crisis, but rather as an adjustment. Many of us oldsters will have to tighten the belt just a bit. And some others will drop to low-income status that will (or should in any future legislation) qualify them for additional assistance. Is it wunnerful, wunnerful? Nope, but it seems predictable and tolerable at least for most people, to me. 

I'm not saying we should not have policies to rein in inflation and prevent runaway inflation (obviously). But I don't expect them to work perfectly, and I don't expect no hit to my lifestyle as a result of changed circumstances. I guess that puts me in the "realist" camp. 

Malcolm Nance interview

Malcolm Nance isn't afraid to say what many of us pretty much think but are uncomfortable saying.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv4-tSH-BOk 

I don't 'get' Republican support for nationwide abortion ban

Maybe my usually pretty good political instincts are off kilter, but it's hard for me to understand what Republicans in the Senate, and Miss Graham in particular, are thinking in introducing a nationwide abortion ban bill. Such "big government intrusion" obviously goes against their supposed philosophy, but that's not what makes me wonder what they're thinking. The fact is that even most of their own base doesn't want this, and in fact opposition to it is strong and growing among the Independents sector that they absolutely depend on to win elections. Even at the state level. So I just don't get it, even looked at from their point of view. You have to know these unprincipled charlatans (to a man, and woman, that's what the GOP is)... don't really care about abortion much on principle. Somehow they think this is going to help them hold on to and expand their power, and I just don't see how they reach that conclusion. But hey... if they want to shoot themselves in the foot, great. 

Watch Jamie Raskin interview.

 One of my favorite Democratic politicians.  https://youtu.be/5KBAJik9_SQ?list=TLPQMTIwOTIwMjJWZ8YrvbveLw

Putin overplays ... again ?

Sure seems like desperation for Putin to cut off gas supplies. It's a totally thuggish strategy, and completely ignores the likelihood that rather than buckling under, the Germans and other Europeans will rally... and if they start learning to do without Russian gas, even with significant hardship, the value of Russia's blackmail position erodes rapidly. I think it's quite likely this will backfire for Russia.  

Helion developing promising fusion technology

 This is super interesting, and it's genuinely encouraging to witness the "second golden age of invention" emerging (my phrase, and I think it's justified).

https://youtu.be/4GJtGpvE1sQ?list=TLPQMTIwOTIwMjKTOA8Iv7KNLw

Rebates for purchase of new induction range pursuant to IRA

I saw with interest where the IRA will provide money for state-managed rebates for the sale of induction ranges to reduce energy use (the idea is more to switch from gas than from other electric, but anyway). These ranges with convection or conventional oven tend to run over $1000 and you have to use magnetic cookware (iron or steel, or at least with magnetic bottom if layered with aluminum or ceramic)-- which could mean having to replace a lot of your pots and pans.  The rebate is limited to 100% of the price if your household income is less than 80% of the median hhi in your zip code, or 50% if it's less than 150% of hhi. The median hhi in my zip code is about $76,000. That puts the cutoff income at about $114,000 (household, not individual). Lots of folks are going to not qualify at that level, but quite a few will too. 

The EV future

One reads that Mazda and even Honda have essentially no designs for bespoke electric cars, and both Toyota and Nissan think they're going to sell internal combustion cars as the majority of their vehicles through 2040 in the US. GM and Ford are making more positive statements but so far have failed to deliver EVs in large numbers. Kia and Hyundai have lots of EVs coming down the pike but will be hamstrung by the new laws making rebates unavailable from the US for cars not primarily assembled in North America. Stellantis (which includes Chrysler) is way behind. Which leaves... Chinese manufacturers (at least ten of which are ramping up EV production plans).... like BYD, startups like Canoo, Aptera and Rivian, and, of course, the largest EV maker in the world, Tesla. European manufacturers are only slightly better, and most of their EVs are overpriced in the American market. The world is rushing forward to an electric vehicle dominated transportation economy, and most of the world's auto manufacturers are being caught flat footed. Some, like Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Subaru, Fiat, Citroen (both Stellantis badges) are so far out of the game that they may go bankrupt entirely (although several have parent companies that make things other than cars, so they will probably continue to exist). All the manufacturers that did so will rue the day they bet against electric cars. The ones that don't go bankrupt, that is. Experts are seriously predicting that Toyota and GM, not so long ago the largest automakers in the world, may share less than 10% of the US auto market in a decade if current trends continue. It's beginning to appear that the seemingly almost ridiculous valuation of Tesla at more than 10x the value of GM may be spot on after all. 

Goodbye Dropbox

I've been using Dropbox for a quite a few years and began paying them for 2TB of data a while back, but they suddenly became impossible to log in to. The data is still there, for now, but I can't log in and come to find out they have no chat, no e mail for customer service, no phone number, and basically no customer service at all. So I'm going to migrate all my data away from their service and stop using them. Sad, really, because I like the way they integrate with Windows better than Amazon cloud or Google. But this is just not acceptable.  

Update: I actually did solve the problem and reestablish control over my account, and I was informed by a friend that there actually is Dropbox support, although when I both texted and e mailed them I received no initial response, and ended up dealing with the issue myself with no help from them. 

Deeply, deeply troubling judicial corruption

I have to say that I agree with Josh Marshall that the Trump judge's ridiculous decision allowing a special master to review the documents (and suspend the investigation, a literally unprecedented usurpation of the prosecutorial role of DOJ), for purposes of determining whether a private citizen somehow has executive privilege over the actual executive branch, is not merely "bad law." It is profoundly and pervasively corrupt. The DOJ must appeal this. And if it fails to get it overturned, we are on notice. The right wing has, it would appear, succeeded in corrupting the judiciary to the point that precedent, and the rule of law, are now of no consequence; only the ability to exercise judicial power for ideological and political reasons exists. This is how government works in countries like Russia and Hungary. I don't pretend that this is entirely new in our country, far from it, but it seems to have reached a new low of pervasiveness and imperviousness even to the pretense of actual judicial independence. 

The myths of tight wing talking points on Democratic economic agenda

 To my conservative friends who have found themselves sympathetic with right wing talking points on the student debt relief, please consider the following. Quite apart from, and more important than, the rank hypocrisy of numerous Trumpist members of Congress complaining about "rich kids" getting relief at taxpayers expense, when they themselves had PPP loans (in several prominent cases, including MTG and Matt Gaetz), of between $500,000 and $1.5 million written off; it's just not true. The Trump Tax cuts benefited and STILL benefit more than 85% people in the richest segment of the population and will cost approximately $2 trillion over time in increased debt and deficit, with none of it paid for. The student loan relief will benefit by about the same ratio people with incomes under $75,000, or $125,000 households, and will be LARGELY OFFSET by increases in revenue resulting from the increased economic activity among recipients, who are in the cohort of people who spend most of their money, causing economic growth and revenue to increase. Moreover, any inflationary effect will be mostly canceled when in January the 2 year COVID moratorium on student loan defaults will end and student loan payments not covered by the relief will resume. The way the law is structured, reducing payments based on income, will directly benefit those least able to afford the burden, and not those relatively few who are easily able to afford it. Plus, I would argue, spending money on education, and fostering educational opportunity, is just plain a good thing, while cutting taxes for the rich just isn't. Period.

As an ancillary point, the infrastructure and tax credit provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, another signal achievement of the current Democratic agenda, are paid for by revenue provisions, and in fact that effect of the law is to REDUCE the deficit over time by $300 billion. The FACT is that Trump and other Republican administrations have consistently increased the deficit many times over, because their promised revenue offsets NEVER, EVER materialize, whereas Democratic administrations have consistently reduced the deficit and slowed the overall growth of national debt. And much of the spending in Democratic agenda items actually does increase revenue, because it puts money in the hands of businesses doing actual productive work to rebuild infrastructure and in the hands of people who pump the money back into the economy, rather than investing it in primarily nonproductive and rent-seeking financial instruments. So, in other words, if you're a fiscal conservative, stop listening to Fox News talking points and vote Democratic, because they do more to keep the debt and deficits under control, and to reduce economic inequality and increase productive capacity and median income, than Republican administrations... EVERY SINGLE TIME, despite what the propagandists say. 

Why the Classified Documents Case is so important

If anyone remains inclined to minimize the importance of the classified documents case (and I say this despite having recently said I think the Insurrection/Sedition case is even more important), please watch this important interview with Sue Gordon, former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence. https://youtu.be/-slPUvVF5Es 

Perspective on the "money photo" from the golf club

It's kind of an interesting observation of the difference in mindset between the authoritarian MAGA mind and the more pluralistic minds of even some Republicans. On seeing the "money photo" of highly sensitive document "jackets" arrayed on the tacky carpet in Trump's office from the DOJ filing refuting Trump lies in court, his own lawyer, Trump himself, and several right wing opinionators responded not to the glaring and horrifying fact that the Failed Ex President had highly sensitive materials in an unsecured office in his golf club digs, but that he didn't keep stuff lying around on the floor like that... he had visitors in there and that stuff was always kept put away! Talk about missing the point. In saying this stuff on his bankrupt twitter clone, Trump actually made an admission that he did indeed have highly sensitive classified documents in his unsecured office, and knew it; and his lawyer said she had personal knowledge that he let guests in there who weren't vetted. Just digging the hole deeper and deeper. The irrefutable evidence is such that literally anyone else would be trying desperately for a plea bargain that would keep him from a LONG prison term. 

Trump and the Mar a Lago Crimes

Talkingpointsmemo has a headline: "Florida Man Declares National Secrets Belong to Him." Sort of changes the perspective. I recently opined that the Jan. 6 insurrection crimes, which I believe are creditably incitement to insurrection and seditious conspiracy, are worse. There was a tendency on hearing about the Palm Beach Golf Club search warrant to minimize it, assume they were just mementos, etc., and cite the oft stated view that far too much rather innocuous material is "classified." Also to rather rue the fact that the whole incident was a distraction from President Biden's signal achievement this year, the passage of the Climate Reduction... er, Inflation Reduction... Act. BUT. Big but. Turns out there were truly sensitive materials there. LOTS of them. And no conceivable rational reason for the Failed Ex President to have them. The kind of thing that could help adversary regimes and even get American and allied intelligence agents killed. I'm not always, or even usually, on board with American foreign policy, but I don't want our people jeopardized and, as I find I sometimes have to say, "yes, sure, but I'll take the CIA over the FSB in a hot minute!" There is some tendency to deal only with Trump's MOST RECENT crimes. There have been so many. But this one has all the key elements:  it's serious. Anyone other than Trump would have already been indicted based on the evidence. There is no colorable executive immunity and no conceivable attorney-client privilege for the classified documents. The documentary evidence is overwhelming. And it does relate to why Trump is a threat to our democracy and must be held accountable to avoid unacceptable risk and a terrible precedent of a powerful would-be dictator basically getting away with an only barely failed coup. So, hell yes I want to see him prosecuted, convicted and thrown in prison. 

Tax Credits and EVs not assembled in North America

I already own a Kia Niro EV and a Kia Niro PHEV (plug in hybrid), so this doesn't affect me directly, but the Korean manufacturers are big losers in the new tax credit regime. Their vehicles are assembled in Korea, so after the first of next year, they will not qualify. This includes the popular new Kia EV6 and the Hyundai Ioniq 5. Both Kia and Hyundai have major plans to convert to almost all EVs more quickly than most manufacturers, so having a big dent taken out of North American sales will affect them very negatively. I would imagine that Hyundai Group will be considering opening an assembly plant somewhere in the Western US, because they already have a big market share here, but this is no doubt a big blow to their plans. Toyota will have to manufacture its late-to-the-party EVs here too to qualify, and as I understand it their initial products were to be built in Japan, so that's an issue for them as well. Not sure about Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler (or Stellantis, which is also late to the party), but if any of them want to build or maintain a big share of the US market, they're going to have to deal with this. Same with Nissan. Mazda has produced probably the worst EV on the market, which they can barely give away, so they won't really be a player until they produce a much better product anyway. 

The main charge against the Failed Former President

I doubt I'm in that small of a minority in thinking that, bad as it is, and as worthy of prosecution under all reasonable precedents and interpretations of the statutes, the Mar a Lago classified document case is far less serious and damaging to our democracy than the failed former president's suborning of sedition and insurrection. Which the evidence put before the public by the Jan. 6 committee quite thoroughly established to be a very strong case for criminal prosecution (as well as various structural reforms which are the committee's main concern). Not that it's one or the other. But we should not lose sight of the fact that this lunatic grifter felon tried very seriously to undermine an election and forestall the peaceful transfer of power for the first time in the history of this country, including deliberately inciting insurrection and violence. And he came perilously close to succeeding, despite a certain keystone kops amateurism on the part of his accomplices. This is the main charge against him. And we should assume that the DOJ has even more evidence than the committee did from which to pursue a prosecution. I can only hope that the various distractions and (in my view misguided) "prudential" considerations don't derail this necessary process to hold the most dangerous and criminal president in American history accountable in ways that are unprecedented precisely and only because the crimes he committed are so very unprecedented and extreme. 

William MacAskill: What We Owe the Future (highly recommended)

Reading What We Owe the Future by practical moral philosopher William MacAskill. Only read the first couple of chapters, but already I can safely say: I cannot recommend this book highly enough. The premise is that the lives of future human beings (I would add "and their sentient successors") are worthy of significant consideration. And, thing is, there are two really important corollaries: 1. We are at a juncture in history where what we do will affect the longest-term potential of humanity more than at any other time in the future, and most of the past. 2. The future of humanity is, potentially, almost inconceivably greater in all measures (population, space, time, lifetime, scope of movement and capacity of thought).... than its past or present. If you realize that these points are all irrefutably true, you can't escape the conclusion that we owe a pretty damn significant duty not to blow it for them, and, we are blowing it. Bad. But it's not all doom and gloom. Actually, the "practical" part is why I admire this guy's writing and ideas more than a lot of other people who write about the future. 

 

Recent encouraging electoral development

Perhaps the most encouraging trend indicator in recent weeks is the poll numbers showing that the biggest segment in a question about the most important issue to voters (21%) selected "threats to our democracy." I suppose there are a few mental defectives among Trump true believers who somehow think Democrats are the threat, but my guess is that essentially all of those who think this is the biggest issue perceive the threat as coming from the Trump Cult essentially exclusively. This fear, which people see in voter suppression and manipulation of electoral politics to deny voting rights to as many people as possible, ties in with the increasingly penetrating perception that the Trump Republican party is bound and determined to reduce rights, especially reproductive rights, and do nothing about gun violence. These are all issues on which the Democratic party clearly comes down on the side of the views of a significant majority of the electorate, while the Trump Republican party is completely out of step. Personality, and cult leader status, is enormously powerful, but ultimately, core issues matter, too, and I think it's becoming increasingly clear that a lot of people who voted for Trump but who are not cult followers have had about enough, and are starting to realize that the Republicans offer them nothing but chaos and more narcissistic flailing around by their increasingly mentally unstable leader. There is a tipping point to these things, and I think we may have just passed it. 

 

Missed my chance

Like many of us horrified by the direction the US has taken, I have toyed with the idea that we might need to take refuge somewhere. My aunt always told me that as the grandchild of a natural born Swiss, I could acquire citizenship without having to go through the usual naturalization process. Come to find out I missed my chance. That was true, but they changed the law in 2017 so it only applies to the first generation. Oh well, can't afford to live in Switzerland anyway. But I would probably have been one of the most distant-in-time applicants, as my grandfather, Richard, whom I don't remember at all (he died in 1958), was born in 1889 in the small town of Kriens, near Luzern. (His father, Jost, emigrated to the US in 1892; he was born in 1849. My ancestors all tended to marry late and have few children, on both sides).  

Technological Paradigm shifts underway right now

There are often brief periods of time in the history of technology during which major paradigm shifts occur. Such as the switch from wind to oil for ship propulsion, the adoption of steam power earlier than that and internal combustion after, the sudden introduction of power generation, radio, telephony, television... many others. I think we may be in the midst of several interrelated and enormous paradigm shifts right now:  1) the rapid changeover to electric propulsion for cars, buses, trucks; 2) the development of all new batteries like the promising graphene/aluminum battery being developed in Australia that if its lab performance pans out will mean low-pollution batteries made from abundant materials (rather than rare strategic metals) that charge 70% faster and hold 3x as much energy as current batteries; and 3) new reactor and battery technology that will transform our power grids to make virtually all power and energy usage ultimately electric; some from wind and solar, some from hydro (including more advanced hydro that doesn't require new dams), and some from new, advanced nuclear technology that produces minimal waste with much shorter storage times. These changes could essentially resolve our climate goals and provide abundant clean energy. 

The last thirty years have been mostly an era of rapid change in information technology, but it looks like more basic energy production and storage technology is now undergoing rather sudden and transformative change... and if so, just in time. 

Our #1 technological, environmental and economic problem: upgrading the electric grid ASAP

Years ago my uncle and his wife, who were then acting as consultants to industry and academia doing research on critical issues involving technology and economic impacts, did a study regarding the future of electric vehicles in California. This was in the 90s, and it was not at all clear that technologies that led to GM's EV1 would ever yield a practical electric car. As a non-scientist but the son of an engineer and a reasonably scientifically literate person, I was skeptical of their optimistic conclusions. The rubric oft repeated at the time, that there was no way that a multi-step energy conversion: power plant > grid > converter > inverter > battery > electric motor would end up being practical, or, more importantly, more efficient than directly burning a high-energy fuel in the car's ICE (internal combustion engine). After all, then, and for the most part, still, the electricity was generated from fossil fuels in the first place. There would be little or no climate impact. 

But I was wrong. Even then. The problem then was batteries, and range, but the overall process is so much more efficient than burning highly refined gasoline that a policy of incentives and mandates to move us more quickly to replace our ICE fleet with other forms of transport with EVs playing a central role was fully justifiable even then. Since then, with the invention of practical modular Li-ion batteries and other promising technologies, EVs have become not only quite practical, but their many advantages are winning them more and more converts. (I love my EV, even more than my plug-in hybrid, which I only bought because the charging network remains inadequate). 

So, where are we now? Sadly, not in a real good place. EVs are wonderful. They are simply superior in every way to ICE vehicles, and with reductions in battery costs, they are already cheaper to operate over the life of the vehicle. And vehicles with actually greater range than comparable ICE vehicles are just about to start appearing on the market. So, what's the issue? 

The problem, of course, is the grid. We simply do not have the capacity in this country to quickly ramp up near total conversion to electric cars, trucks and buses. We could have, had we listened to forward thinking people like my uncle and his wife. But we haven't. So now we have all these political problems but we also have a huge challenge to build out something on the order of 50% more electrical capacity in this country just as quickly as is humanly possible, since we have so much dithering around to make up for. Of course it's not just transportation. We have to stop using natural gas to heat and cool interior spaces, and essentially convert all energy usage to electricity. Even aircraft, for which there may be other solutions, will have to fly using fuel made from air and biomass... an easy chemical trick, but it requires massive amounts of power. Same with the water crisis. The earth is 70% covered with water. The problem is that the natural processes to create fresh water are insufficient in the face of climate change. But we can make fresh water from seawater or other less pristine water sources, the key, again is massive amounts of power. 

I also used to oppose nuclear power, for pretty good reasons; the cost and safety were just not that great (actually especially the cost; nuclear reactor technology has improved so that if there were new plants, especially fail safe liquid fluoride thorium or even uranium low-pressure reactors, they could be made modular, factory-buildable and safer than coal or even wind). But we now have to pull out all the stops. A massive TVA like program to build more clean power, hydro, wind, solar, and nuclear, everywhere, on a crash equivalent-of-war mobilization basis. It is the only way to achieve net zero carbon in time for best projections on climate change without making drastic and unacceptable cuts in energy consumption. 

Donald Trump and his BS are not what's important. This is what's important... and our political leaders need to get this through their heads and start pushing for this now. 

Accountability is truly essential at this point

Look, I'm not a "National Security" fetishist. Far from it. But, seriously. Does anyone believe for a single second that if anyone not commanding the fearmongering among politicos throughout the land that Donald Trump does was caught with 300 f*ing classified documents, some highest secret, in his golf club apartments, even after several attempts to negotiate an offramp, would not face having the book thrown at him and several years in prison? Really. Imagine if it had been Obama (never would happen, but just hypothetically). Or even someone like W.? Only a demagogue whom the authorities actually fear could ever get away with this, not to mention the several other dead-to-rights felonies this menace committed. I am continually reminded of O.J., who had the same kind of mentality:  What I do isn't wrong, so I didn't do that... it's you... you're making it up to persecute me. 

I'll just put it starkly: if we don't hold this guy accountable, the precedent for fraud and insurrection being successful strategies will be established, and, probably sooner but certainly later, our democracy will fail completely as a direct result. I really don't think there's any room for debate on this point. I wish we could just set this aside and get on with dealing with the very real and serious environmental, economic, and technological problems our country faces, but we can't just sweep it under the rug. There must be a reckoning. 

I just ordered an Aptera super efficient EV for delivery in a few years.

I just put $100 down (refundable) on this new electric car from Carlsbad, CA. They expect to begin producing them at a rate of about 80 cars a day starting in 2023. They already have about 27,000 pre-orders, so do the math. Won't be available for a while. It's in "gamma prototype" stage right now. Here are features (variable, these are what I selected). Total price $30,400.  (Eligible for some govt. rebate, although it only has 3 wheels so it's considered a motorcycle). 400 mile range. 40 mile daily charge from sunlight (weather varies, but even in rain you get some). So for ordinary city driving, no charging needed. Seats 2. Has enough capacity for short trips luggage, groceries, etc. Gets the equivalent of about 450 mpg, but since a lot of the driving is solar charged, it's actually even more. Extremely aerodynamic, quite fast, comfortable and eye catching, to say the least. I figure, what the hell, $100 is a small risk, and if they don't go completely belly up (possible of course) and I decide not to go through with it, I can get it refunded. 

 

What about the House?

The Punditariat seems to agree that the Democrats are now likely to retain the Senate, and even gain seats. But what about the House? I want to know where the inflection points, which seats are winnable, what is the best way to help ensure we retain the House? Any suggestions most welcome. 

Lying Liars of the Out Nout Fascists on the IRS

Dare we hope that people like Joe Scarborough are right that spineless creeps like Kevin McCarthy telling their lunatic followers that "an army 87,000 Biden IRS agents" are coming for middle class voters "with AR-15s" to "hunt down and kill middle class tax payers" are going several steps too far. Scaring people actually usually isn't a good way to win elections. And even people who suffer from Trumpism (a mental illness that should go into the DSM-V) are unlikely to believe this excrement. 

I hope needless to point out to anyone, the recent reconciliation provisions with regard to the IRS do no more, and actually slightly less, than restore funding to 2011 levels, which will allow somewhere around that number of employees, almost none of them actual agents, to be replaced after retirement and other departures. Job slots which Republican-passed drastic cuts had caused to be left vacant. That and a little more money for physical costs of operation are the "army" the Lying Liars of the Out Nout Fascist Party are misrepresenting to the American People. Since in fact, estimates are that many billions of dollars of revenue are left uncollected due to grossly inadequate IRS staffing, which would return something like $20 for every $1 spent, these provisions are, in fact and obviously, long overdue. 

Some of us have had just about enough of these lies. 

 

Molten fluoride thorium reactors as a component of the "solution"

 You may or may not find this guy annoying, but the content of this video is pretty interesting. The history of the AEC refusing to build safer Thorium reactors is all but incomprehensible. Other sources indicate that Thorium will not likely be more than a small segment of the carbon neutral energy picture to emerge, but we need EVERY option in order to get through this time until we have the technology to produce energy from fusion or other more advanced technologies at some point in the future. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMuxjHLLk0E

Can support for deeply unpopular policy ideas sink the GOP?

It seems the policies of the Republicans are hugely out of step with the majority of Americans in yet another major respect. Almost all of them nowadays talk openly of essentially ending Social Security. If that isn't enough to take the blinders off a good number of voters' eyes, I honestly can't think what would be. I am truly fearful that the rush to full-on fascism may be unstoppable. But deeply unpopular changes in laws that negatively affect almost everyones' lives could be what does it. 

Once again, though, Democratic messaging needs to be greatly improved. They talk about "removing it from mandatory spending" and "Congress reauthorizing spending." But what they mean is first deep cuts, then elimination through phony privatization. There is a close parallel. The Pinochet government in the 1970s in Chile did exactly that to Chile's social security system. We all remember when George W Bush tried this, and it was one of the things (in addition to an increasingly unpopular foreign war) that sunk his presidency and allowed Democrats to regain legislative power. The situation today is different, but not entirely so.